We want to be clear that we don’t know exactly how this situation will play out. We don’t have insider knowledge, and we don’t think the committee is perfectly predictable. The College Football Playoff rankings are a human process. Still, we think there’s a good chance Ohio State will be ranked 3rd tomorrow night, ahead of 12–0 Florida State and Washington.
This does not mean Ohio State is going to make the playoff.
The College Football Playoff committee, over the years, has heavily prioritized Power Five conference champions. At the beginning, this was convenient for the committee. In 2014, the Big 12 didn’t name a single champion, something which gave the newborn College Football Playoff an easy way out: Exclude TCU and Baylor and blame it on the Big 12. Over time, though, we’ve come to see that the committee really does value conference titles. It doesn’t hurt that conference titles usually come with ranked wins to end the year.
So, as we unveil our college football model‘s expected rankings for tomorrow night, please keep in mind: Washington, Oregon, Florida State, Texas, and Alabama all still have a game to play. Ohio State does not. The model’s expected top 25 (notes below on what to watch, where we think the model’s wrong, and who controls their fate):
| Rank | Team | Ranking Score | Last Week |
| 1 | Georgia | 100.0 | 1 |
| 2 | Michigan | 95.8 | 3 |
| 3 | Ohio State | 92.4 | 2 |
| 4 | Florida State | 91.9 | 5 |
| 5 | Washington | 91.6 | 4 |
| 6 | Oregon | 90.6 | 6 |
| 7 | Texas | 90.3 | 7 |
| 8 | Alabama | 88.7 | 8 |
| 9 | Missouri | 82.5 | 9 |
| 10 | Penn State | 81.6 | 11 |
| 11 | Mississippi | 80.6 | 12 |
| 12 | Oklahoma | 77.4 | 13 |
| 13 | LSU | 76.3 | 14 |
| 14 | Arizona | 74.0 | 15 |
| 15 | Louisville | 73.6 | 10 |
| 16 | Oregon State | 72.4 | 16 |
| 17 | Iowa | 71.8 | 17 |
| 18 | Notre Dame | 70.9 | 18 |
| 19 | NC State | 70.9 | 22 |
| 20 | Tulane | 70.3 | 23 |
| 21 | Oklahoma State | 69.1 | 20 |
| 22 | Tennessee | 68.8 | 21 |
| 23 | Clemson | 68.4 | 24 |
| 24 | Toledo | 68.3 | NR |
| 25 | SMU | 67.8 | NR |
| NR | Liberty | 67.8 | 25 |
| NR | Troy | 65.1 | NR |
| NR | Kansas State | 64.9 | 19 |
Matters of note:
Florida State vs. Washington
It’s interesting that our model puts Florida State back ahead of Washington. Our model doesn’t know that Florida State was without Jordan Travis. When reacting to results, it simply goes off the result of the game, the margin, and where it happened. Florida State’s victory at Florida was more impressive on paper than Washington’s against Washington State in Seattle. We don’t expect the committee to take this line, but they’d be justified in doing so, and as Boo Corrigan did rightly point out last week, there are 21 players on the field besides the quarterback on every play.
This likely doesn’t matter either way for playoff inclusion. If Washington finishes 13–0, Washington will have beaten Oregon again, and Washington is in. If Florida State finishes 13–0, it’s unlikely a consensus-pleasing committee would hold them out. It might matter for seeding, though, which might then matter for national title chances. While neither Florida State nor Washington is a serious national title threat, we said the same last year about TCU, and they at least made the national championship game. Playing Michigan might again be a better draw than playing Georgia.
Ohio State vs. Oregon
While Ohio State’s placement relative to Washington and Florida State will receive more attention, the realistic questions for the Buckeyes are whether they could hold off whichever of Oregon, Texas, and/or Alabama win this weekend. The further they are ahead of each of those three, the better for them, though again, nothing’s guaranteed. For what it’s worth, the same model which has the Bucks 3rd this week has them only 20% likely to make the playoff in the end. If Ohio State’s 4th or lower, that number is going to shrink.
Georgia vs. Michigan
At the top, one of our lingering questions is how close Georgia is to the pack, something which will be of huge relevance should Alabama beat them on Saturday in Atlanta. If Michigan jumps Georgia, it will be notable, and it’ll really shake up our model, which is still giving weight to how the committee treated Georgia back before it crushed Mississippi and Tennessee.
Texas vs. Alabama
Texas *should* have created some distance from Alabama with the more impressive Week 13 victory, but it’s possible that’s not how this relationship works. Alabama might be ahead of Texas in the committee’s eyes and only ranked behind because of the optics associated with that head-to-head result. We don’t know if there’s any way for Alabama to jump Texas short of a Texas loss, but we probably won’t actually learn much if the expectation’s met and the Longhorns stay one spot up on the Tide.
Louisville vs. Nobody
It doesn’t really matter now where Louisville lands. They’re almost definitely in the Orange Bowl. I suppose if they drop to somewhere in close proximity to NC State, they could be in some danger, but that would be a major surprise and would require the committee turning away from the two criteria it’s seemed to weight most heavily this season: head-to-head results and overall win-loss record.
Missouri vs. Penn State vs. Mississippi
We don’t expect any changes to this lineup, but the New Year’s Six at-large cutline should fall somewhere in here, depending how many of Louisville, Iowa, and Oklahoma State crash the party (if any). If the order does change, it matters, but we don’t expect it to change.
Oklahoma State vs. Itself
The committee would be justified in dropping Oklahoma State after yesterday’s performance, but Oklahoma State is already more overranked relative to precedent than any other team in the country. Oklahoma State still lost to South Alabama and UCF by a combined score of 78–10. That’s still something that happened. The committee hasn’t cared so far.
The Group of Five Picture
We don’t expect Toledo to be ranked—our model has every Group of Five conference treated like it’s the AAC, which is reasonable for the Mountain West and Sun Belt but flawed for the MAC and Conference USA. Our model has a little bit of reaction built in to this effect, but not as much on Toledo as it does on Liberty. Liberty’s been around the picture for longer this year. Toledo’s still new.
Regardless, SMU is the team to watch, because our suspicion is that not only will SMU be ranked, but that SMU will be close enough to Liberty to jump it with a win at Tulane. In effect: The Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bid is probably going to the AAC champion, and the closer SMU is to Liberty this week, the more likely that is to be true.
***
That all said, we don’t expect SMU to jump Liberty outright. Rather, here’s where we expect the rankings to land, putting a slight stickiness into our model to account for how the committee often operates:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
5. Florida State
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Missouri
10. Penn State
11. Mississippi
12. Oklahoma
13. LSU
14. Arizona
15. Louisville
16. Oregon State
17. Iowa
18. Notre Dame
19. Tennessee
20. NC State
21. Tulane
22. Oklahoma State
23. Clemson
24. Liberty
25. SMU
And for whatever it’s worth: Oregon being ranked ahead of Florida State, if that happens, probably doesn’t have much impact. Call us if Texas jumps the Seminoles.
***
The big question, distilled, is which of the four teams listed above controls their fate. Ohio State certainly doesn’t, and more likely than not, the committee will face a hard choice. Judging by our model’s latest 10,000 simulations, there’s only a 25% chance the committee avoids having to decide between some combination of 13–0 Washington, 13–0 Florida State, 12–1 Oregon, 12–1 Texas, 12–1 Alabama, and 12–1 Georgia. Who’s in with a win? At the moment, our model breaks it down like this. But this will change after tomorrow night’s rankings are unveiled.
| Team | Prob if Win |
| Georgia | 100% |
| Michigan | 100% |
| Florida State | 94% |
| Washington | 93% |
| Oregon | 89% |
| Alabama | 37% |
| Texas | 26% |
Georgia and Michigan are definitely in with a win. Florida State, Washington, and Oregon are all probably in with a win themselves. Alabama and Texas continue to be where the uncertainty lies, though we can now add Ohio State to that mix. Here’s who most helps each of those three programs if they lose. Again, this will change when the rankings come out, provided our model got even one thing wrong within the top eight.
For Texas, who exits the weekend 21.5% playoff probable:
| Loser | Probability Increase (% pts) | New Playoff Prob | New Prob with Win |
| Michigan | 30.4 | 51.9% | 64.2% |
| Florida State | 18.2 | 39.7% | 48.0% |
| Georgia | 3.3 | 24.8% | 30.2% |
| Washington | 0.3 | 21.8% | 26.6% |
| Oregon | -1.0 | 20.5% | 26.6% |
| Alabama | -4.0 | 17.5% | 30.2% |
A loss by Michigan would, according to our model, be a godsend for Texas, lifting them to a 50/50 shot without even considering Texas’s own result. A Florida State win would have a similar impact. The other two games aren’t especially relevant to Texas’s hopes. Even Alabama’s game doesn’t have much of an impact, because while Alabama might not jump Texas themselves, the committee could always hold 12–1 Georgia ahead of the Horns.
For Alabama, who exits the weekend 20.1% playoff probable:
| Loser | Probability Increase (% pts) | New Playoff Prob | New Prob with Win |
| Michigan | 17.8 | 37.9% | 68.9% |
| Florida State | 10.7 | 30.8% | 56.5% |
| Washington | 0.4 | 20.5% | 37.7% |
| Oregon | -1.1 | 19.0% | 37.7% |
| Texas | -2.6 | 17.5% | 38.2% |
Again, Michigan and Florida State losing would be helpful. Surprisingly, our model thinks Alabama would rather Texas win, but I’m not sure the model’s not getting that wrong. The model has nothing built in to allow a capping situation like what might be going on with Alabama and Texas. That may or may not end up working in its favor, but the absence of even the possibility of that happening is a shortcoming.
For Ohio State, who exits the weekend 20.0% playoff probable:
| Loser | Probability Increase (% pts) | New Playoff Prob |
| Florida State | 24.8 | 44.8% |
| Michigan | 18.3 | 38.3% |
| Texas | 11.2 | 31.2% |
| Alabama | 6.4 | 26.4% |
| Washington | 0.1 | 20.1% |
| Oregon | -0.2 | 19.8% |
| Georgia | -5.3 | 14.7% |
Here’s where the list gets different. Ohio State wants Georgia to win, and it really would like Florida State, Texas, and even Michigan to lose.
We’ll run all this again on Wednesday, but for now, that’s how the situation stands. Georgia and Michigan control their fate. Florida State, Washington, and Oregon probably control theirs as well. Alabama and Texas would both really like Florida State and Michigan to lose. Our model believes each wants the other to keep winning, but we aren’t sure it’s right about that. Add capping to the list for future fixes.
