A lot happened on Saturday. There was the Ohio State/Michigan game, with all its big-picture implications. There was the Ohio State/Michigan game, with all its playoff implications. There were a bunch of other playoff-impacting games, including one in which 2014 Iowa State got wormholed down into Fort Worth in the current Cyclones’ bodies, but thankfully we don’t have to talk too much about that game. Let’s go 1, 3, 2. Big picture. Playoff business. And then the Ohio State/USC debate.
Is Ohio State Bad? Is Michigan Good?
The college football hierarchy, taking a long, broad view, currently goes 1. Georgia, 2. Alabama, and then before Saturday it went 3. Ohio State and had a bunch of programs—including Michigan—alongside each other at 4, teams who’ve proven they can make the playoff but can’t be expected to make the playoff (like 3. Ohio State) and certainly can’t be expected to challenge for national championships (like 1. Georgia and 2. Alabama). Now…I’m not sure where we’re at.
One possibility is that Ohio State has fallen into Notre Dame-land, right alongside Michigan. The Buckeyes are capable of making the playoff still, but pair them with a power and it’s a bad scene. We theorized about this back in August, asking the same thing about Clemson (who was kind enough to prove us demonstrably correct). Neither, at that point (and still today), had proven themselves against an SEC power since 2018 at the latest, and while three seasons wasn’t an eternity, we’re now up to four. Clemson is still probably a playoff program many years—the ACC is so bad these days—but they’re not a national championship program in any present year. The Buckeyes might not be either.
Another possibility is that Michigan has risen to occupy Ohio State’s former place. If this is the scenario, what we’ll see is that Michigan makes its way to playing Georgia and gets walloped, but then opens next year as the Big Ten favorite and wins it yet again, especially if this scenario is happening in conjunction with our last one, in which Ryan Day’s Ohio State is simply not Urban Meyer’s Ohio State.
A third possibility is that Georgia and Alabama have both receded from their positions of power and we’re about to see Michigan (or Ohio State, more on that later) challenge for the title not because they’ve caught up to the biggest of boys but because the biggest of boys got a little bit smaller. This scenario would be especially frustrating for programs like Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Oregon. Of all the years to not get to the doorstep…
The likeliest explanation is that we’re looking at those first two possibilities, but that Georgia is still the king. It’s a believe-it-when-you-see-it situation, and while we certainly saw it from Michigan against the Bucks—they went into Columbus and bullied their archrivals in their archrivals’ ideal conditions—it’s one thing to take down number three and another entirely to take down number one. Just a week ago, Bret Bielema nearly threw a wrench into the Wolverines’ engine. We can anoint Michigan the Big Ten’s top dog, but we’re not ready to give them any edge over Georgia in our minds.
Tigers Down, Ducks Down
In a sweet dose of relief for those who want unique and/or deserving playoff teams, Clemson will not make the College Football Playoff, edged by a South Carolina team whom they led by nine late in the third quarter. Clemson might not be done forever, but there is something broken in that program, because this was not a one-off result. Lose this game but finish 11-1, and you can make the case for a rivalry game fluke. Lose this game after struggling against Wake Forest, NC State, and Syracuse, and after getting pounded by Notre Dame, and you’re not what you were. Add in the whole PED scandal and the departure of the coordinators this offseason and it is exceedingly easy to say that Clemson is not relevant to national title conversations as anything other than a potential good draw in the 2023-24 College Football Playoff for some lucky foe. Clemson is a regional superpower, but it is a weakling in the national power structure. The Boise State of the ACC, you could say.
Also losing were the LSU Tigers, avoiding the possibility of a mildly batty committee decision should LSU beat Georgia this weekend. There’s no referendum to be declared here on LSU as a program—it’s Brian Kelly’s first year, and at places like LSU (and Auburn) my impression is it takes exactly two years to both be swimming in talent and know where all the doors are—but for this team, well…they weren’t that good. They aren’t that good. We knew this. They were pounded by Tennessee and struggled against Arkansas and only hardly beat a down-year Alabama. At the same time, Texas A&M isn’t that bad, and we knew that too. They played like shit a whole lot, but the Aggies weren’t a terrible football team. Non-terrible teams sometimes beat non-great teams. The result simplifies everything, but it wasn’t an utter shock.
Also losing was Oregon, Oregon who fell at Oregon State in a much larger collapse than Clemson’s, and in one that’s equally personal. Oregon is Oregon State’s big brother. Always has been, but is especially that right now, openly trying to leave the Beavers and jump to the Big Ten (who will not take Oregon, but the sentiment remains). Now, the Beavers are 9-3, just like the Ducks, and neither is playing for the Pac-12 Championship, with Utah yeehaw-ing its way in to a USC rematch via a tiebreaker scenario that made me very glad I’d researched tiebreakers when my dad asked what the hell was going on in that conference.
Winning, notably, was USC, who made the stops early against Notre Dame and then held the difference as the Irish alternatively surged and scuffled. USC has played at its competition’s level a lot this year, making them a bit of an odd team, but they’ve also won a whole lot and only lost respectably, which is tough to quarrel with. Six teams remain in the playoff picture, more or less. USC likes its own chances. We do not. Or at least, our model doesn’t. But we’ll get to that, we’ll get to that, I must refrain for the moment.
The Playoff Picture
The AP Poll ranks the six as follows, and we loathe the existence of the AP Poll, but it’s sadly relevant here, so here we go:
First is Georgia, though some voted for Michigan. Georgia hasn’t looked incredible lately, but again: Believe it when you see it. Had Michigan smoked Illinois, this would feel different, but Michigan is ten days away from nearly losing at home to a program that hasn’t posted a winning record since 2011. Georgia hasn’t looked great, but they haven’t struggled at home against Illinois in the last two weeks.
Second is Michigan, and hey, maybe they’re the best, but again: Illinois.
Third is TCU, who beat the pants off of Iowa State, accruing their first style points of the season in the process. They’ve got a tough game on Saturday against Kansas State, but they’ve beaten the Wildcats once, and there’s an argument to be made that TCU has gotten better these last three weeks.
Fourth is…USC? The Associated Press seems to believe in the Trojans, loudly saying they’re better than Ohio State despite little compelling evidence to that effect. More on this below.
Fifth is Ohio State.
Sixth is Alabama.
Tonight, the committee will share how they currently rank the six, and we will be watching closely, and to be honest, watching with some nervousness. Because our model is very convinced Ohio State is not only ahead of USC right now, but nearly guaranteed to finish ahead of USC. And our model has never yet been wrong about the final four selections (even when we blind it to FPA).
Here’s how the model ranks the whole top 25, with an estimated score in parentheses on a scale in which 100.0 is the best team in the country and 0.0 is the worst (in the committee’s eyes). This, we should emphasize, takes into account the committee’s rankings so far.
1. Georgia (100.0)
2. Michigan (99.5)
3. TCU (93.9)
4. Ohio State (92.3)
5. USC (86.4)
6. Alabama (83.9)
7. Tennessee (83.3)
8. Penn State (80.7)
9. Oregon (77.2)
10. LSU (76.6)
11. Clemson (76.3)
12. Washington (75.7)
13. Kansas State (75.3)
14. Utah (72.5)
15. Oregon State (69.9)
16. Tulane (69.7)
17. Florida State (69.6)
18. UCLA (68.6)
19. Notre Dame (67.4)
20. Mississippi State (65.4)
21. Troy (64.5)
22. UCF (64.4)
23. Texas (64.1)
24. Mississippi (64.0)
25. South Alabama (63.9)
There are things to talk about at the bottom of this list—welcome, Sun Belt?—but we’re sticking to the top. There is a giant gap there between Ohio State and USC. An absolutely massive gap. The gap between Ohio State and USC is the same size as the gap between USC and Penn State. Based on the committee’s precedent, as our model sees it, the AP Poll is about to be in significant disagreement with tonight’s rankings. But is our model right?
One way to hedge here would be to say that both parties are right and both parties are wrong: We could say that our model is right about Ohio State being ahead of USC right now, but that once USC wins the Pac-12—should that happen—the AP Poll will be right and the Trojans will jump the Buckeyes. This might be the likeliest explanation. Our model might ultimately be wrong. But it’s worth digging into what the model is saying, because if the model is wrong, it means the committee’s definition of a playoff team has significantly changed, or is different than we originally thought.
Here’s how the model views every variable on Ohio State and USC’s respective team sheets:
- Win/Loss Record: Identical, 11-1
- Best Win: Ohio State by 13 at Penn State, USC by 3 at Oregon State
- Second-Best Win: USC by 3 at UCLA, Ohio State by 13 at Maryland
- Third-Best Win: Ohio State by 11 vs. Notre Dame, USC by 11 vs. Notre Dame
- Loss: Ohio State by 22 vs. Michigan, USC by 1 at Utah
- Adjusted Point Differential (scoring margin relative to opponents’ average scoring margin): Ohio State +26.6, USC +15.9
- Forgiveness/Punishment Adjustment so far (FPA): Ohio State -0.8, USC -1.5
The best win clearly favors Ohio State, as does APD, which is our ongoing proxy for rating systems and “the eye test.” The loss clearly favors USC, although it’s worth pointing out that Michigan is about to be ranked first or second while Utah is not going to be in the top ten. Finally, our model gives USC the edge on second-best win, while third-best win is sillily identical. Overall, the model thinks the loss gap is worth only half as much as the gap in best win, and roughly one fifth as much as that APD gap (that comes out to a 7-1 advantage in Ohio State’s favor, in those two categories). Add in that the committee, though low on each relative to precedent, has been lower on USC, and this is where we’re getting the huge difference in ranking score.
What happens if USC beats Utah?
Well, that’s the thing. Our model, which those of you who clicked over may have noticed, has USC only 12.2% likely to make the playoff, and has Ohio State still 98.0% likely, even after the loss. Our model does not think USC can jump Ohio State, and will not think so unless the committee ranks the Trojans ahead of the Buckeyes this week. Our model thinks USC’s only realistic path to the playoff involves a TCU loss. It’s possible our model is about to be wrong, though, and this is kind of new for us in the college football sphere. We’re not dumb enough to say that this means the committee is changing the rules, if it happens. If we get this wrong, that’s on us. But we do think two things are happening here:
The first is that Ohio State might stay ahead of USC even if USC does beat Utah (which is far from guaranteed, and something our model pegs as only 38.0% likely, even if betting markets are high on the Trojans). The eight days between Ohio State losing and the committee’s final decision are a lot of time. Enough to remember that USC had a real hard time with Arizona and Cal back around Halloween, and that Ohio State does grade out as a hypothetical ten-point favorite at least against the Trojans on a neutral field, and that while Michigan bullied Ohio State, the outcome of the game was in doubt entering the fourth quarter. The committee is told to choose the best teams. If it does that in this hypothetical, it’s Ohio State.
The second is that USC’s is kind of a new résumé in the playoff era, as is Ohio State’s. We haven’t seen an underwhelming team with one very close loss. We haven’t seen a clearly good team with a quiet-but-good best win and a bad loss against a possible titan. Our model is built on precedent, but what happens when precedent doesn’t exist? Embarrassment for us, perhaps.
Overall, though, this might not matter at all. Ohio State/USC might not be a debate, or if it is, it might be only a debate over seeding. This is likely, in fact. Because even using those high-on-USC betting odds, Ohio State’s about 65% likely to get bailed out by USC or TCU.
The thing about USC, compared to TCU, is that conference championships have been shown to matter to the committee. If USC finishes 12-1, they’ll have a conference crown. If TCU finishes 12-1, they won’t, and the conversation if USC has also lost will turn to TCU vs. Alabama (which our model thinks will go to TCU, for what it’s worth, but that’s also unprecedented). If USC finishes 12-1, you can make a case that they’ll jump Ohio State. It’s an unlikely case in our model’s eyes, but it’s a case. If TCU finishes 12-1, Ohio State’s above them unless the committee gets really, really wild. It’s likelier, in our model’s eyes, that Ohio State will be ranked ahead of TCU tonight than it is that USC will be ranked ahead of the Buckeyes. Maybe our model’s wrong. But maybe the press is a prisoner to the moment, and maybe the committee is avoiding that temptation (for the record, I would put 12-1 USC in ahead of 11-1 Ohio State, but I would do it begrudgingly and ask if I could eliminate any non-undefeated teams first and go to a two or three-team playoff).
So, we have our scenarios: Georgia is in. Michigan is in unless something really bad (or really good, for those who dislike Michigan) happens. Alabama is out unless something really bad (or really good, for those who like Alabama) happens. It’s down to Ohio State, TCU, and USC. TCU’s in with a win. USC might be as well. But our model sure doesn’t think so, and it isn’t going to change its mind unless the committee ranks USC more highly tonight, and that might mean we have a long offseason of tinkering in store.
