Look. No, Indiana and Northwestern are not playoff-likely, or even really in the neighborhood. But, Indiana has one loss, managed to keep it to a one-possession game in Columbus, and has a chance at a still-good win in Madison in two weeks. Northwestern’s already beaten the Badgers now, and while their remaining schedule doesn’t give many more quality victory opportunities, the flip side of this is that they’re perhaps more likely than not to finish the regular season 8-0, putting them just one shocking upset of the Buckeyes away from College Football Playoff certainty. And talking about anomalies like these is more entertaining than talking about Ohio State, Alabama, and the ACC title race. So, what does each need?
Interestingly, Indiana gave Northwestern a bit of a blueprint for beating Ohio State, which is the biggest step on the route for the Wildcats. No, Northwestern shouldn’t allow Ohio State to total 607 offensive yards. But we now know it’s possible to generate takeaways against Justin Fields, and just as Northwestern beat Wisconsin through the turnover game, their route to a legitimately shocking playoff bid might be turnovers. Lastly, for what it’s worth, Ohio State would have to play sensationally well, even by their standards, to gain 607 yards against Northwestern’s defense.
For Indiana, the biggest obstacle is the field, though that game in Madison is a big one in its own right. In the event the Hoosiers do make it to 7-1, they’ll need the last playoff spot clear, which probably means Texas A&M needs to lose, Alabama needs to beat Florida if no one else does, Notre Dame needs to beat Clemson (or Clemson needs to wallop Notre Dame, at which point Notre Dame would need to be slighted), and BYU/Cincinnati/Oregon/Miami all need to either lose or be slighted by the committee. It’s a tiny path, but it’s realistic enough for Indiana fans to hold onto hope for at least a little longer. At the very least, they should be celebrating that they were able to make that game as close as it ended up being. Indiana’s win probability never got much above ten percent, so to only lose by seven? Masterful.
Elsewhere: Liberty bowed out of the undefeated Group of Five ranks, but Coastal Carolina kept it going, shaking off Appalachian State in that game’s final minutes. We still aren’t giving any love to the MAC or MWC undefeated’s, but the non-BYU/Cincinnati crew—a.k.a. the teams that in all likelihood aren’t making th
