Let’s do this.
We’re going to do the first round games in real world order. From there, we’ll go round by round. I refuse to consult Joe’s numbers for this. We are a vibes-based society. I also refuse to consult my own preview. Meaning: I don’t know when we’re publishing what, but if I do more research for the preview, it’s not included here. I might miss some injury news. There might be players sitting I don’t know about. I don’t care. Again, we are going off of vibes here. If I understand the vibes correctly, I will for the first time win my own NIT Bracket Challenge.
First Round
North Texas over LSU
Experience.
I don’t dislike this LSU team—a little chaotic, but that’s a positive. But North Texas knows how to win in the NIT. They’re showing up for this. There is no question about that.
Boston College over Providence
See this is where this approach immediately gets risky. Because I really haven’t looked into Providence’s situation for this game. Is Devin Carter going to play? I sure hope so, but Kim English gave off a hesitant vibe on Sunday in the only clip I saw of him post-NCAA *ournament Selection Show. Is the Dunk going to be rocking? I sure hope so, but I think that might depend on how much Providence hates Boston College. I’m just not sure Providence hates Boston College enough to make the Dunk what it should always be. Also, when’s spring break? To use a friend’s phrase:
Gah.
Xavier over Georgia
I’m getting the impression Georgia is pretty pumped about this as a program, but I don’t know where I’m getting that impression which means it’s probably a few fans on the internet I don’t know personally. Xavier? Those guys ball. This Xavier team is a balling society. I like Georgia a lot. That Silas Demary Jr. buttwiggle in January has stuck with me. But Xavier seems like they are actually too good here.
Ohio State over Cornell
The risk with Cornell, if I understand Cornell correctly, is that they come out with jet engines on their butts and suddenly Chris Manon has 20. The risk with Ohio State is that they come out a little flat, let down after pulling together so much emotion down the stretch run. There’s also that issue with them from the Holtmann part of the season where they struggled to put teams away. But I think the pride kicks in early, if it needs to kick in at all. I think the Buckeyes do enough here.
UCF over South Florida
Moving later into the evening, I like the Knights a lot. I think South Florida’s going to be trendy, and deservedly so, that team is an amazing story. But UCF’s in a position as a program to really benefit from a run here. Johnny Dawkins has won a ton of NIT games, and multiple NIT’s. UCF has more raw talent. I think they want it. I think they get it done.
Virginia Tech over Richmond
This feels like one local Virginia Tech fans get into, given the opponent’s Richmond, although the late-night tip worries me. I will say: Mike Young seems like an early bedtime guy. Although…maybe he also stays up into the night tinkering with model airplanes? I’m assuming Pedulla and Cattoor play. Hopefully I make an ass of neither you nor me.
(I am so sorry. I called Mike Young by the name Mike Hopkins in an earlier version of this post. Had Hopkins on the mind. Mike Young is the one whose bedtime I was pondering.)
Butler over Minnesota
Am I blinded by my visions of Butler hoisting the NIT trophy at home, becoming the new St. John’s?
Possibly.
But I don’t trust these Gophers.
Gah. I do love Goldy, though. He is so cute and silly.
Iowa over Kansas State
Here’s how I see this game:
- I think Fran cares a lot.
- I think Tylor Perry wants to win this badly.
- I’m not sure how Jerome Tang’s going to approach it.
- I’m worried some of Iowa’s players will feel too cool.
The nice thing for Iowa, and I swear I’m not trying to smear them here, is that if they’re lazy on defense it’s probably not gonna be that bad? Because the defense already is what it is? Also I just love watching Owen Freeman work. He does not seem capable of feeling too cool yet. I’m sure it’ll come, but freshman Owen Freeman is a dog.
It kills me to pick against Tylor Perry.
Can you imagine the repeat MVP?
Gah.
Utah over UC Irvine
In the late night…
Unpopular opinion but I think Utah’s really good. Xavier situation. Injuries, some bad luck, not a lot of ideal opportunities…good team. Love the Eaters, but I’ll take the Utes.
Seton Hall over Saint Joe’s
Tipping off Day 2…The Hawk Will Never Die.
But it should lose at Walsh Gym.
This is going to be the best atmosphere of the first round.
And we’re two picks away from an incredible first-round atmosphere.
Indiana State over SMU
SMU plays some rough and tumble basketball, and that might catch Indiana State off guard. But the thing about Josh Schertz is that he’s got a lot of head coaching experience. The Lincoln Memorial days are relevant here. He’s coached national postseason tournament basketball, and that’s a different beast than beating conference opponents. You have to know how to get your players ready for things they haven’t seen before. It seems like he might be doing what Grant McCasland did last year—holding off on making anything official at Saint Louis until this Indiana State run is done—which feels relevant as well. It’s a good testament to how bought in a coach and his players are to one another.
Bradley over Loyola
I’m fading my own brain with this one, because one of the Loyola games I watched this year was the Dayton game and I can’t get that image out of my head. I watched other Loyola games that were much uglier, but those exit my brain easily. The Dayton game? Engraved upon the backs of my eyelids.
Malevy Leons is a stud, Duke Deen fits all the likable point guard archetypes (meaning, he’s small). I could see Bradley showing up with some force against their old in-state conference rival. We’ll roll with Peoria. (I love Peoria. Beautiful part of the state. Sneaky about it, but the Illinois River does some great stuff around there topologically.)
Princeton over UNLV
If I loved watching Caden Pierce play, I’d be worried I was just a sucker for IHSA state champions. Him? Freeman? Champs. But while I like Caden Pierce, I fucking love Xaivian Lee. Behind Tylor Perry he might be my favorite player in the tournament.
Appalachian State over Xavier
I love Steve Forbes and would love a deep Steve Forbes run, but I don’t know exactly where his players are at with this. My read on Hunter Sallis is vague, and the team has folded a few too many times. I hate doing this to Wake, but I’ll take the Mountaineers.
Cincinnati over San Francisco
I will never forgive San Francisco for playing that Gonzaga game at the Chase Center. Much respect to Cincinnati, too. Good team that caught a few bad breaks.
Villanova over VCU
Finally, Nova. Maybe this is too aspirational of me, but I like the thought of a senior-heavy team banding together to prove something. Ryan Odom is the son of royalty. He has every divine right to win this NIT. But I’m going pagan instead. Neptune, go get this win. (For my bracket, of course. I love all NIT winners.)
Second Round
Seton Hall over North Texas
Had Shaheen Holloway not attributed the decision to play in this tournament to his five starters, I would pick North Texas to win this game. But that fired me up. I’m on board the Pirate Ship.
Princeton over Boston College
Princeton just seems too clean. Not upset-proof, but clean. Xaivian Lee, remember? Guy is smooth and nimble.
Xavier over Appalachian State
To climb to 18–17, we’ve got Xavier winning at the Cintas Center.
Ohio State over Virginia Tech
Now this is where I think Ohio State starts to kick into gear. The second round is where we often see that happen. That’s what Texas did in 2019, against Xavier. That’s what Xavier itself did in 2022, blowing out Florida. I think the Buckeyes start grooving again this weekend.
Butler over Indiana State
I know, I know. I wanted them so badly. I still do! This is a win-win for the NIT. But Thad Matta is capable of matching wits with Josh Schertz, and I think Indiana State’s depth eventually becomes a problem. Thad Matta’s won this thing before, you know.
Cincinnati over Bradley
Cincinnati has NIT experience. Aziz Bandaogo has NIT experience. Wes Miller is building something in the Queen City. The Bearcats take it.
Villanova over UCF
If Villanova gets past VCU, I like them in this one, especially if it’s UCF and not South Florida. That Late BCS Big East echo might be dangerous, but UCF wasn’t in the Late BCS Big East. If Villanova gets to UCF, I see Villanova defeating UCF.
Utah over Iowa
Again, I’m just afraid Utah is too good. Maybe I watched them play too many Pac-12 teams.
Quarterfinals
Villanova over Utah
We’re reversing the order here, because I’ve just had a thought.
Western teams were not doing well in the NIT Final Four for a good little stretch between Stanford’s success and the NIT getting too big for Madison Square Garden. I think that translates in this game in Philadelphia.
Cincinnati over Butler
As much as I respect Thad Matta, I think we might be headed for Miller Time in college basketball. Wes Miller, to rehabilitate the reputation of his alma mater. (Bandaogo’s gonna have some sick dunks.)
Ohio State over Xavier
Take a second to picture this game with me. Actually, picture the last one. Cincinnati hosting Butler? In the NIT quarterfinals? That sounds electric. What a scene.
Now, this one.
Ohio State hosting Xavier? In the NIT quarterfinals? That sounds electric. What a scene.
Picture the local media coverage of Ohio State and Xavier playing for the first time since 2002 (I told you I’m not researching anything). I would gnash my teeth. If that’s a good thing. (Again, no research.)
Seton Hall over Princeton
The Battle for New Jersey. My heart. This NIT could be so good you guys. And I knocked Indiana State and Butler out in the second and third round!
Again, I am in Run–Through–Brick–Wall mode for Seton Hall until further notice. Also in that mode for Ohio State (the Diebler term sheet video was cool) and Iowa (Fran McCaffery got me going today) and of course always North Texas, but Seton Hall is on the list. Sorry, Xaivian Lee. Welcome to the big show.
Final Four
Ohio State over Seton Hall
Imagine Ohio State fans pouring into Hinkle Fieldhouse for this one, a place that if I understand the world correctly is naturally louder than the Schott. Imagine Seton Hall fans busing in from New Jersey like they’re in some Bruce Springsteen song, a New York-adjacent program having to take its NIT show on the road. Imagine the news breaking that the NCAA T*urnament has been canceled due to a lack of interest and that the NIT champion will be restored to national championship status. Imagine John Wooden coming back from the dead, doing the griddy on the baseline, and saying, “In 49 states, it’s just basketball” into the PA mic before the crowd roar swallows us all into a blackout void like when Bane blew up Heinz Field except it’s our emotions, our minds unable to process the dopamine swelling through them like Old Faithful flushing out a metal straw.
I’m breathless.
I think Ohio State’s the better team in this one.
Cincinnati over Villanova
So the deal here is that I think 1) Cincinnati is better than people realize and 2) I was very hesitant to pick Villanova in the first round so I probably shouldn’t take them to make or win the national championship. Bearcats.
Championship
Cincinnati over Ohio State
With the NIT, it’s often a good team, and it’s never who you expect. For the tiebreaker, I’ll take Viktor Lakhin over Aziz Bandaogo to record the most rebounds in the tournament. I like Bandaogo more which makes me think Lakhin’s probably better than I realize.
Man.
I picked Cincinnati to win it all and we didn’t even mention Jizzle James.
