Alright, folks. It’s out there. It’s out there on the interwebs. I have filled out my NIT bracket. Compete against me in our NIT Bracket Challenge here.
Here are the thoughts, for what they are:
First Round
I like the Pokes to win this evening in Youngstown. Making the NIT isn’t a surprise to them, and it isn’t too much of a letdown. They’re the better team, and they should get it done. They’re also tough, and they have enough offensive talent to make a lot of out of Youngstown’s D.
Washington State is jazzed about this. They worked hard to get here, mounting a big comeback after a rough start to the season. I’m scared of Eastern Washington because of the shooting, but I think the NIT experience legitimately might help here.
Sticking with chalk, North Texas shouldn’t have too much of a problem with Alcorn State. Maybe a small problem, but I like the Mean Green.
Now’s where I start getting into the NIT’s best interests, and into my best interests: Sam Houston State is much closer to my home than Santa Clara is. Depending on schedules, I could conceivably attend a second round game or a quarterfinal in Huntsville. I would like that, so I will pick Sam Houston State. Also, as a WAC team, Sam Houston State is used to the travel and the later tips.
I love Oregon as a title possibility. They’re inconsistent, but who isn’t, and they’re a western team loaded with talent. They haven’t gotten past the second round the last two NITs they’ve made, but in one of those they had to play in Marquette’s cool gym, the little one on campus, and in the other they had to play Texas A&M in College Station at dawn, which sounds like a situation that involves guns and was therefore probably a little nervewracking! Unless a scheduling issue exists of which I’m unaware, Oregon will not have to play a road game this year, or even venture outside the Pacific Time Zone.
UCF and Florida are both not playing well, but I think Florida—Castleton loss and all—is playing less not well. I take the Gators.
I like Bradley to upset Wisconsin. Mostly because I just don’t think Wisconsin’s all that good. Bad for me, bad for the NIT, but Bradley’s a solid team that shouldn’t have the shame reaction Wisconsin might have.
Villanova’s got a few guys who are gametime decisions tonight, and that’s not something that bodes well, especially in front of a Liberty crowd I’d imagine will be the loudest of the evening.
In the upper right corner, I think Rutgers turns the screws on Hofstra. I think they bring the edge. I don’t think they go down quietly.
Below Rutgers, I like Virginia Tech. I don’t think Virginia Tech is good, but I think they can play well, and I don’t know if Cincinnati can quite do that.
Utah Valley’s solid but New Mexico feels like a no-brainer. An NIT game in the Pit? Place should be rocking. Get out the seismographs.
I don’t like Seton Hall on the road, especially not against Colorado. They’ve played well once lately and it was against a Providence team that sneaky sucks and is about to lose its coach to Georgetown. Colorado is banged up, but playing a game at altitude in the middle of Seton Hall’s night is just too much.
I think Clemson gets it done against Morehead State. Talent gap. Morehead and Alcorn are the only two who’d be shocking to see win a game.
UAB might have some disappointment, but I feel like they’re more realistic than that, and Jelly Walker likes to shoot. Here’s hoping he likes it enough to make a bunch of ‘em.
I really like this Yale team. They’re fairly young, they’re well-rounded, and they do the little things well.
With Toledo, I think the offensive threat is going to be too much in the first few minutes. I think Michigan will come out a little cold, Toledo will make them pay, and the Wolverines will lose a game of catchup. Respect to Michigan, but I’ve got the Wolverines going down.
Second Round
I don’t think I’ve seen clearly whether Oklahoma State can host this weekend. Even if they do, I don’t hate Washington State on the road, as long as the game isn’t really early in the day. Washington State won at Arizona. They can do it.
I like North Texas, then, to get through past Sam Houston State. Sam Houston State would be a shorter drive for me for this game, but I think I could stay at a friend’s place in Dallas if I needed to. Again: My own interests. Sue me!
Oregon’s a better team than Florida, and things are going better for Oregon than they’re going for Florida. Quack quack.
Home courts only get louder as the tournament goes on, and Liberty’s should be loud. They’re better than Bradley, too. That should be enough.
I like Rutgers over Virginia Tech on the premise of “who would beat up who,” but I’m attached to New Mexico and Virginia Tech would give New Mexico a home game, so I’m talking myself into a big shooting night out of the Hokies. Rutgers does make teams shoot a lot of threes. Maybe VT’ll be the guys who hit ‘em.
New Mexico is the better team than Colorado, playing at home. I continue to put my money on the Pit.
I’m taking UAB over Clemson because Clemson isn’t that good and it’d be fun for the NIT to have Jelly Walker and Darius McGhee each making a run. People would be watching. They might not admit it, but they’d be watching.
It’s unclear who would host a game between Toledo and Yale, and there’s a good chance it isn’t decided, which makes me think they’d make Yale go to Toledo because Toledo seems like they’d be more willing to host. Still, I like these Bulldogs. I like them on the road. I like them as an underdog, if that’s the case.
Regional Finals
North Texas, in a home game, against Washington State: I think Denton would get decently amped. More amped than Highland Park got when Wazzu was there last year. I do not recall that situation being particularly amped. Also: North Texas is better than SMU was.
Liberty would have to fly across the country to play Oregon, and I see the Ducks saying enough is enough. One other thought here is that Liberty’s in bad shape when McGhee has a bad night, as we saw against Kennesaw State when they got themselves into the NIT. Oregon wins it.
New Mexico hosts Virginia Tech in this bracket, and that continues to be good news for the Lobos.
Yale would go to Birmingham to play UAB, but we’ve made it this far and we will not stop now. Yale by a handful.
Final Four
Ok. My Final Four matchups are North Texas vs. Oregon and New Mexico vs. Yale. That’s one 1-seed (the last one), two 2-seeds, and an unseeded team. That feels plausible.
I’m big on the thought that it matters that the Final Four is out west this year. Western teams have played so badly in Final Fours recently. Only Stanford has been able to win NITs in New York. Now. North Texas isn’t exactly flying across the country to get to Las Vegas, but I’d also imagine Oregon has a little bit of a crowd advantage and Oregon’s talent could be too much.
New Mexico I do think will travel. I think they will travel well. Richard Pitino famously had his dad behind the bench when he won the NIT with Minnesota. Look for the duo to appear again, for two big wins in Las Vegas.
That’s right.
Two.
New Mexico to win it all. Lobos? Back. And in an act of historic poetry, Fran Fraschilla should be involved with the trophy presentation.
If UCF beats the Gators, they make it all the way to the F4.