Eight teams. Four games. Two days.
It’s the NIT Quarterfinals, you beautiful basketball boosters.
Quarterfinal #1: Oklahoma State vs. North Texas
When: Tuesday, 7:00 PM EDT
Where: Stillwater, Oklahoma
Watch: ESPN
First, the big questions: Oklahoma State guard Avery Anderson was supposed to get his cast off yesterday, with the hope being he’d be ready to play next week should the Pokes make the Final Four. Will he go early? North Texas big man Abou Ousmane missed Sunday’s game tending to a family emergency. While the priority there, of course, is everyone’s well-being: Will he be back? I don’t see him in this picture, but I don’t know every North Texas player’s face and hair.
The odds, then, are that each team in this one will be down one starter. How much will it matter? Well, EvanMiya’s got the Mean Green only a little worse when Moulaye Sissoko’s on the floor instead of Ousmane, and the two don’t play together all that often, making that something of a straight switch, especially with Grant McCasland putting so many lineups out without either of those two bigs. As for Anderson: Oklahoma State’s been playing without him for weeks. They are what they are right now.
Beyond those (and Chris Harris’s torn ACL for Oklahoma State, which happened in the Big 12 Tournament), we aren’t aware of any absences here, but things pop up. It’s been a long season to get to this point, and guys are aching.
The books have Oklahoma State as a four-point favorite, and KenPom has the line at three. This one-point difference might just stem from the Ousmane uncertainty, whether that’s correct or not. Oklahoma State’s the favorite, no matter how you slice it, but it is very close.
Will the game hinge on North Texas’s three-point shooting? It’s an easy angle, which might mean it’s true. The Mean Green used threes from Tylor Perry and Rubin Jones to bury Sam Houston (the team, not the guy, he was not recently exhumed, to my knowledge, and I wish everyone would stop asking me about whether I took the bones of my favorite Texas founding father, because I definitely did not and if I did you would know because my dog would be playing with them and I would be posting it to Instagram because she’s just so darn cute). Sam Houston, though, struggled with perimeter defense all year. Even playing in the WAC, they were on the wrong side of the Division I median. Oklahoma State played in the Big 12 and turned in a top-quintile result in opponent three-point percentage. Given they struggle so badly from three themselves, the rims at Gallagher-Iba might be a little extra tight tonight.
(Credit to KenPom on many, many, many of these stats, in this blurb and the other three.)
Perry leads the way for the Mean Green, so he’s the one to watch over there. Great scorer, awesome shooter, got a little Kyle Lowry to him. For the Cowboys, watch Tyreek Smith. The junior has started the last five games and has taken on a big role in this NIT, with double-doubles in each of the first two games. Like everyone in Mike Boynton’s program besides whoever argued the NCAA case, he’s a solid defender as well.
The crowd is a question. Oklahoma State is not on spring break right now, and they had about five thousand in attendance on Sunday, coming off of spring break. Attendance almost always goes upwards as the NIT goes on, and Stillwater does seem like the kind of college town that would turn out for this. (Great college town, by the way—I don’t know it well enough to know if going to Eskimo Joe’s is basic, but I had a blast at Eskimo Joe’s during the 2019 Ohio State/Clemson football game. Family atmosphere for sure. Unless your family is Inuit in which case it’s probably at least a little awkward, if not offensive on principle alone.) The arena holds upwards of 13,000. So far, the attendance high for this NIT is 10,436, set at Wisconsin on Sunday. With North Texas only three and a half hours away, they’ll presumably contribute some to the atmosphere, but it’ll be an Oklahoma State home game, through and through. How much will that affect things? Can North Texas get the crowd out of it early?
In the history department: Oklahoma State is well-remembered for being the overall 1-seed in the first NIT, but they’ve never made a championship. They lost in the Final Four in 1938, 1940, and 1944, and they’ve yet to get back to that level. In 2018, they lost to Western Kentucky in this round (11,308 on hand for that one, by the way), Taveion Hollingsworth dropping 30 in a game that featured 176 combined points. The spread was a lot like this one for that. North Texas? This is the furthest they’ve ever gotten. Last year was their first NIT.
James Westling and Lance Blanks will be on the call for ESPN. Westling called the Utah Valley/New Mexico game in the first round and the EWU/OK State game this weekend. Blanks was the color commentator for the SHSU/UNT game Sunday.
Quarterfinal #2: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
When: Tuesday, 9:00 PM EDT
Where: Eugene, Oregon
Watch: ESPN
There are a lot of injuries at play here as well. N’Faly Dante, Will Richardson, and Jermaine Cousnard have each missed both of Oregon’s first two NIT games. Dana Altman confirmed last week that Richardson’s out for the year, but said that Dante and Cousnard were day-to-day. Dante is the Ducks’ best player. His presence would make a massive difference.
For the Badgers, everyone played on Sunday, and we aren’t seeing any expected absences tonight, but again: You never know.
The books have Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite here, while KenPom sets the line at 6. It’s a quick turnaround, and Wisconsin has to travel, but Oregon’s shorthandedness seems to be leaving a big mark.
It’s hard to talk much about matchups without knowing Dante’s status. The man is one of the best rebounders in the country, which shapes so much of who Oregon is. They’ve held each of UC Irvine and UCF (weird UC pair, and we’ll get to an even different UC in a minute) under 20% from deep, but they had a lot of trouble with Irvine on the defensive glass, and UCF forced them into a ton of turnovers, something that’s been an issue for this team. Can Wisconsin capitalize on those tendencies? The Badgers are near the bottom of Division I in second chance points (they might even be the last-place team, given how slow their games are, but I haven’t seen the list anywhere), so there might not be much for them on that front. Turnovers could be the angle, then.
Kel’el Ware has some on and off NBA hype for Oregon, but Nate Bittle’s been the guy who’s made things happen for the Ducks lately. He was absent for a stretch in the middle of the season, but since re-entering the starting lineup on January 14th, he’s played a big role, and he grades out on EvanMiya as the Ducks’ best defender. He scored 21 and grabbed 13 rebounds on Sunday against UCF. Especially if Dante doesn’t play, he’s a big man to watch.
Another one? Don’t forget about Tyler Wahl. It’s been a disappointing season for the Badger senior, who missed three losses in January that turned the Badgers from an 11–2 team whose only losses were each by a possession to an 11–5 team right at .500 in the Big Ten. Steven Crowl and Chucky Hepburn were the headliners in the first two games, but Wahl had a bigger game on Sunday than he did against Bradley, and at some point, it starts to become about the best players on the floor. Wahl is still probably that player for Wisconsin.
Oregon hasn’t had great attendance in the first two rounds, averaging just 2,700 spectators per game. They’re on the quarter system, so students were taking finals last week and are now on spring break. This could help Wisconsin, who presumably won’t travel well to the West Coast on short notice for an NIT game almost two hours south of Portland. Wisconsin probably has a decent number of alums in the Pacific Northwest (I know two, personally, and I don’t know *that* many UW alums), but it’s a Tuesday night and that’s a long drive.
The Ducks have made three Final Fours in their history, the last in 2004 when they got smacked by Michigan. They’ve never broken through to a championship game. We’ve spilled a lot of ink on this already, but they fell in tough road environments in the second round of each of their last two NIT visits. This is their first home game this late in the tournament in the history of the NIT. This round was at MSG still in 1976 and 1977, and the Ducks migrated to Fort Worth, South Bend, and Seattle in ’99, ’04, and ’12. Wisconsin? Tonight is their first quarterfinal appearance ever. Period.
John Schriffen and Robbie Hummel will be on the call, ESPN sending an A-crew out west. Tons of credit to ESPN. They are an NIT ally for sure.
Quarterfinal #3: Vanderbilt vs. UAB
When: Wednesday, 7:00 PM EDT
Where: Nashville, Tennessee
Watch: ESPN2
A little less chalky here. Vanderbilt’s the 2-seed, UAB’s the 4-seed in this corner. This was Clemson’s region until it became Morehead State’s.
Liam Robbins is still out for Vanderbilt, he’s done for the year. Myles Stute entered the transfer portal last week before the Commodores’ first NIT game. To our knowledge, those are the only players out on either side. UAB looks fully healthy. While we’re on the personnel matter, though: Ledarrius and Ty Brewer are brothers but they aren’t twins. Neither fraternal nor identical. Both seniors, eligibility-wise, but that’s thanks to Covid.
The books have the spread on this at even money. It’s a pick ‘em. It is an absolute tossup in Nashville. KenPom? It has the Commies by a point. Pandering to mid-major fans.
Watch UAB on the boards. Especially when they’re shooting. Outside of Jordan Walker, they don’t shoot many threes, but they crash the glass hard, and Vanderbilt’s missing Robbins down there. With Vanderbilt, a lot of it is about making threes, because they take so many (again, especially with Robbins out), and UAB’s defended those well so far this season, but Vandy was shooting against some tough perimeter defenders in the SEC.
UAB’s had no trouble in the first two rounds, but Walker has not gotten going. So far he’s just 4 for 16 on threes in the NIT when season-to-date stats suggest he should be 8 for 22. Others have picked up the slack, but it feels like eventually, we’re going to get a Jelly Walker game. That could be tomorrow night. For Vanderbilt, Tyrin Lawrence is coming off two huge games, but I’m more curious about Millora-Brown. He grabbed 13 rebounds against Yale. Can he do something like that again and limit UAB’s shots? If not, will Jerry Stackhouse make a lot of people google whether Lee Dort’s related to Lu Dort? (All indications say they are not.)
Vanderbilt fans responded enthusiastically on Twitter to a suggestion that this game might be a sellout, and Twitter isn’t real life but there’s a decent enough chance. They drew over eight thousand people on Saturday, over five thousand in the first round despite students being on spring brack, and Memorial Gymnasium holds 14,326, with UAB a three-hour drive away. They’ve announced this game as a whiteout, so if you’re watching and you wonder if everyone wearing white was planned: Yes.
UAB has made two NIT Final Fours, but they’ve never gone to the championship. This is their first NIT quarterfinal since 2003, when they ran into St. John’s at Carnesecca Arena. Vanderbilt won it all in 1990 and was runner-up to Villanova in ’94. This is their third quarterfinal appearance in the last decade, with the second coming last year, when they lost that thriller to Xavier in Cincinnati.
Doug Sherman and Perry Clark will be on the call. Sherman called each of Michigan’s games, meaning he called Saturday’s contest in Nashville. Clark was the color commentator for the VT/Cincy game and Morehead/UAB.
Quarterfinal #4: Cincinnati vs. Utah Valley
When: Wednesday, 9:00 PM EDT
Where: Orem, Utah
Watch: ESPN2
Another non-chalk, with Utah Valley unseeded and Cincinnati the 4-seed in what was formerly known as the Rutgers region. Cincinnati goes on the road here because their court is undergoing some previously scheduled maintenance.
Tim Ceaser, Utah Valley role player, hasn’t appeared in either NIT game so far, but he only played seven minutes in the Wolverines’ final WAC Tournament game, and I haven’t seen anything explicit about an injury. Other than that? Everyone sounds good to go!
Las Vegas has this as another tossup, which is electric. KenPom has UVU by two.
Utah Valley has some ridiculous defensive numbers, and some of that comes from playing in the WAC, but these guys are also just an aggressive, in-your-face, shot-blocking pressure-guarding team. They don’t go for many steals, so they don’t allow many free throws, but they are fierce. They also like to run the break, something Cincinnati’s accustomed to from playing Memphis, Tulane, and SMU in the AAC but didn’t exactly thrive against, splitting those six games and allowing comfortably more than 70 points in all but one.
Cincinnati’s a veteran team. Landers Nolley’s been around the block, starting his college career at Virginia Tech and winning an NIT MOP at Memphis. David DeJulius is playing his fifth college season, the first two coming back at Michigan. Mika Adams-Woods is a senior. So are Jeremiah Davenport and Ody Oguama and Kalu Ezikpe. It’s a fairly balanced, senior-heavy crew. Utah Valley is younger, but they aren’t that young. Trey Woodbury and Justin Harmon—each of whom has torched exactly one team this NIT—are a fifth-year senior and a junior, respectively, and only one freshman—Ethan Potter—gets semi-regular minutes. Woodbury and Harmon are the two to watch. They take over half Utah Valley’s shots when they’re on the floor, and Woodbury can rake from deep.
I’m extremely curious about the crowd on this one. Utah Valley has over 40,000 undergrads, but it’s peak attendance this year was only 5,168, and that was for a game against an in-state rival (Southern Utah). The arena holds 8,500. Can they fill it up? Can they break five thousand? What does it sound like if they do? Spring break is not a factor. That was two weeks ago.
This is Utah Valley’s second ever NIT, with their lone other appearance coming in 2014, when they lost to Cal in the first round. The school’s only been awarding four-year degrees since 1993, it doesn’t offer football, and it was still counted as a Junior College as recently as 2003, when it began its NCAA transition and joined Division I. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has been making the NIT since 1951, but their record is surprisingly sparse. They’ve made only one Final Four, it was in 1955, and their only other quarterfinal trip came back in 2006, when they lost to the defending and eventual champions, South Carolina.
Mike Corey and Richie Schueler will be on the call for ESPN2. Corey broadcast the VT/Cincy game in the first round. Schueler was the color commentator for Utah Valley’s game against New Mexico.
