I was really ready for NITexas, guys.
NIT Bubble Watch! We explained this yesterday, in its season debut, but what follows is the latest look at the NIT bubble picture, guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture will be treated as one small mess of NIT frailty, down at the bottom.
This NIT Bubble Watch is for Wednesday, February 28th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
ACC
- Too Hot: Virginia, Wake Forest
- Too Cold: Boston College, Miami (FL)
- Just Right: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Florida State, NC State
A correction from yesterday: We had Wake Forest listed as too cold. They were, in reality, too hot.
The big news in the ACC last night was Wake reinvigorating their NIT hopes, going into South Bend and losing to a progress–is–happening Notre Dame team. But while that grabs the headlines, credit to Florida State, who did the dirty work of winning at home and made some progress around the cut line in the process. Pitt (who looked lively at Clemson but didn’t win), Virginia Tech (who didn’t look lively at Syracuse and also didn’t win), and Syracuse (see: Virginia Tech, but flip everything) are on their own level of NIT relevance, but FSU and NC State are chomping at the bit. Would have been a big win for the Wolfpack in Tallahassee.
In relevant ACC action toNITe, we have…
- Virginia taking on Boston College in Chestnut Hill.
Neither BC nor Virginia is out of it, and I believe Boston College might be the favorite tonight? Pretty clear thing to do here, guys. Pretty straightforward situation.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Northwestern, Michigan State, Nebraska
- Too Cold: Rutgers, Indiana
- Just Right: Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota
With Penn State’s loss at Iowa, the Nittany Lions slip from our focus. With Indiana’s smoky win over Wisconsin, the Hoosiers creep back into the edge of the picture.
One thing I will say about Anthony Leal, in honor of his boxout of Steven Crowl: Although I love the idea of him, I kind of wish he hadn’t won Mr. Basketball. I wish he’d been a three-star instead of a four-star. I wish the mythology was just a little more dramatic.
This evening:
- Northwestern’s at Maryland.
- Minnesota goes to Illinois.
Maryland is a little too close to .500, but they only need one win in these next three to clinch finishing at least 16–16, so they don’t absolutely need this. They’re also in a spot where they can’t really hurt themselves. They’re playing for seeding unless they manage to get swept by Northwestern, Indiana, and Penn State, which would be a hilarious prank even with the Penn State game on the road.
Northwestern, contrarily, needs losses, and needs losses on the road, and Maryland’s better enough than their record and the visual experience of watching them play that this would be a sneaky good win for the Wildcats. That’s the last thing Northwestern wants to happen.
Minnesota is still an NIT bubble team, so they need wins, and this one would be massive. Signature win for Ben Johnson, enliven the troops, get everyone a little too hopeful…classic late-season bad power conference team stuff. Highly unlikely they pull it off, but even keeping it interesting would help the Gophers.
Big East
- Too Hot: Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, St. John’s, Xavier
Villanova whooped Georgetown, but that’s mostly a formality. If you trust computers (bad time for this, looking at the zeitgeist), it actually made them think Villanova’s more likely to win the NIT. They’re one of our five (or eight) favorites now.
On today’s calendar:
- St. John’s at Butler
- Providence at Marquette
- Seton Hall at Creighton
- DePaul at Xavier
Must-lose games for Providence and Seton Hall, not in totality but pretty close to that. Xavier, of course, cannot lose to DePaul. The Musketeers would be pretty likely to finish below .500 if they did that. Beat DePaul, beat Georgetown on Saturday, and get yourselves to a spot where you either grab a NET-based automatic bid or can win one of your last two and avoid needing a Big East Tournament run. We don’t know how the committee will treat sub-.500 at-large candidates. Don’t test them, Xavier. We need your local presence in this NIT Final Four.
The Game of the NITe, nationally, is St. John’s at Butler, where Rick Pitino’s handpicked and unwanted men could play themselves to the wrong side of the NIT conversation. St. John’s needs to lose this game. Butler? Take it or leave it. They’re in the power position in that relationship. It means less to them.
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF
I was so sure Texas would lose in Lubbock and jump into the middle of the NIT fray. Now, they’re almost definitely out. We do get a Coach Mac sighting now on the fringe, though. And the experience of watching Brock Cunningham light up Darrion Williams, unprovoked, then put the Horns up going into the tunnel while Texas Tech fans threw trash at him and one fan had to be carried out by six security guards? That was special. Flavor Flav was in attendance! Texas Tech: Not locked out just yet. Brock Cunningham: 25 years old. Was on the 2019 NIT Championship team. If we can get to Bevo’s Fake Nuts this week, we will discuss Brock Cunningham. Check back on Friday.
Cincinnati’s our latest NIT favorite, and they did exactly what you’d want an NIT favorite to do last night against Houston: They lost, but they didn’t let themselves get blown out. Kept pounding. Kept extending the game even when it was hopeless. Cincinnati made the last few minutes miserable for the Coogs. That’s the kind of thing that makes an NIT champion.
In the evening hours:
- Oklahoma at Iowa State
- UCF at Oklahoma State
If Oklahoma wins in Ames, they might be locked out, so don’t go breaking your own hearts, Sooners. UCF, meanwhile…
UCF’s in a dicey situation. They lead Kansas State in NET, but only by three spots, and it’s looking right now like that gap will be what decides the Big 12’s second automatic bid. (This assumes TCU, Oklahoma, and Cincinnati all maintain their current positions.) If they don’t get it, our best guess is that they need to finish .500 or better. The problem with this is that UCF somehow lost a buy game? Not as in, they lost to a bad opponent. As in, they have one game missing from their schedule. I don’t know what happened, but their regular season schedule only has 30 games on it, not 31. So while they might only lose 15 times, even that would leave them needing to win their Big 12 Tournament opener to feel comfortable in their eligibility.
All of that goes to say that with Oklahoma State playing better lately and the game happening in Stillwater, this is a huge moment for the Johnny Dawkins era in Orlando. And it’s been quite the era already. (Tacko Fall. Remember?)
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: UMass, Loyola (IL), George Mason, Duquesne
- Just Right: Richmond, St. Bonaventure, VCU
Kyle Rose was a thorn last night to George Mason, taking the Patriots down at the buzzer in the Bronx. Bad loss for GMU. Not out of it, but that loss is a headache.
Not losing was St. Bonaventure, who blitzed Loyola and moves up into the sweet spot. I would like a Bonnies fan to explain Daryl Banks to me. Why is he coming off the bench now? Is he Bona’s second-best player? What’s his canon?
UMass took care of George Washington, inching closer to the picture, and as a followup from yesterday: I think the militias were all converted into the Continental Army, so the minutemen didn’t technically ever answer to George Washington. I would assume, though, that a lot of soldiers from Massachusetts were once minutemen, so individual minutemen went on to answer to George Washington. It’s like Villanova players playing for the Knicks.
Tonight:
- La Salle at Duquesne
- Richmond at Saint Louis
- Rhode Island at VCU
You would think the Richmond and VCU games should be business affairs, but road games are always dangerous, especially against underachieving teams. Duquesne is one we still have our eye on. As much as we love everything about the La Salle men’s basketball program (everything), we were aboard the Duquesne Train in October and we would like to see it start chugging again.
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington, Utah
We’ve got games tonight!
- Cal at Colorado
- Oregon State at Oregon
Is this the Mark Madsen moment we’ve been looking for?
Something I love about Mark Madsen (head coach of the 2022–23 Utah Valley University Wolverines, who made the NIT Final Four and were arguably the most exciting team to play posteason basketball last year) is that every now and then, when I’m on Twitter late at night, I get an alert that he’s listening to a Twitter Space on the war in Ukraine. The world may be paying less attention to the Ukrainian plight, but Mark Madsen is not.
Anyway, Cal’s not in the NIT picture, but Colorado is, and Cal could help a buddy out. If they’re still buddies. Could see them not being buddies, given the whole realignment thing. But man. Do you associate any towns more with pot than Berkeley and Boulder? When you call it pot, I mean. I associate other towns with cannabis (Medford) and marijuana (San Diego) and weed (Madison) and THC (Las Vegas).
Also, Oregon hosts Oregon State. In theory, that should be a fun game. Could be one of those Jordan Pope nights. Will it affect the NIT, though? Probably not.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, SMU, South Florida
SEC
- Too Hot: Mississippi State
- Too Cold: Georgia
- Just Right: Mississippi, Texas A&M, LSU
First: Mississippi State is only barely in the NIT picture. Seeing a lot of people getting it twisted out on the streets. Mississippi State? Barely NIT-relevant.
Second: I learned last night that I love the SEC Network broadcast crew of Tom Hart and Dane Bradshaw. They were pulling Renaldo Balkman references. I think ESPN might have sent out a memo telling commentators to remind fans about the NIT, because this also happened in Olean, but there was a lot of NIT talk last night and as the man watching the Game of the NITe, I appreciated it. Not sure we’ll get that with toNITe’s Game of the NITe, on CBSSN. (That’s why CBSSN is a Worldwide Follower, not the Worldwide Leader.)
LSU and Georgia treaded water with the result, a dramatic Tiger win in which Will Baker, who was one year late for that 2019 NIT Championship team at Texas but did play high school ball with Cunningham at Westlake, made the key free throws to avenge the Tigers’ loss in Athens. It seems like we’ll get one of these two teams, and like that one will be LSU, but it’s possible it happens as an at-large and not an automatic bid. Speaking of that situation:
- South Carolina at Texas A&M
I don’t know that a win moves A&M out of the NIT projection. South Carolina’s better regarded on the streets than they are on the spreadsheets. A loss, however, would have us feeling pretty confident that we’re getting both A&M and Mississippi. LSU and Georgia fans: You are cheering for Texas A&M tonight.
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Drake, Bradley
Games:
- Drake at UIC
- Southern Illinois at Bradley
- Indiana State at Evansville
The Sycamores still have a decent chance of missing the NIT even if they lose during Arch Madness, so a loss tonight would help them in our world. Drake is extremely safe to make the NIT with an Arch Madness loss, so this is more about MVC Tournament seeding for them, but even there, they’re more concerned with what Bradley does. Drake’s in second in the MVC, they’re likely to stay there, and whether Bradley lands at third or at fourth will probably determine which of Indiana State and Drake has the tougher semifinal. What decides if Bradley finishes third or fourth? Possibly this game against Illinois State, one that Bradley—as an NIT bubble team—needs to win.
Bradley, then: Wants to win.
Drake: Wants Bradley to win.
Indiana State: Wants Bradley to lose so Bradley can knock them out of Arch Madness and send them to the NIT, where they will make a thrilling run to the NIT Final Four, one in which the field will consist of themselves, Butler, Ohio State, and (magically) Indiana, resulting in sellouts at Hinkle Fieldhouse, mass media attention, and every college basketball fan in the country looking at one another, silently nodding, and heading off to tar and feather Jay Bilas as we restore the NIT to its rightful place of honor. (I don’t know why Jay Bilas specifically seems likely to cry, “Unhand me!” in fury while being hoisted off to the tarring-and-feathering machine.)
No jokes here. The MVC is all business.
WCC
- Too Hot: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: San Francisco
Sun Belt
- Too Hot: James Madison
- Too Cold: Appalachian State
- Just Right:
Action:
- James Madison at Georgia State
- Old Dominion at Appalachian State
App State needs wins, so this is a good time for them to play ODU. James Madison is in a spot like Drake where it’s really unlikely they miss the NIT so long as they lose their conference tourney. The Dukes are free to play for seeding.
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Boise State, Nevada, Colorado State
- Too Cold: UNLV
- Just Right:
A second correction: We neglected to mention Nevada was playing Colorado State last night. If you were relying on this NIT Bubble Watch to inform you of NIT-relevant basketball games happening yesterday, we missed one, and it was the best game of the day. We let you down. On the first NIT Bubble Watch of the season! Perhaps it’s I who should be tarred and feathered-ed.
The result of that game is that Nevada is almost entirely gone from us, while Colorado State is ever so slightly back in the picture. Elsewhere, UNLV needed overtime to escape Laramie, which doesn’t really help but also doesn’t hurt. UNLV is a coin toss right now. A game of chance. Fitting, don’t you think?
No relevant MWC games tonight. Possibly no MWC games at all. But then again…we forgot one last night, did we not?
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
The NIT Frontiers, Where Good Teams’ Neighbors Let Them Down
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Samford
One final correction from yesterday: Grand Canyon should’ve been in this section. Almost definitely making the NIT if they lose the WAC Tournament.
This evening:
- Samford at Wofford
Losing this wouldn’t doom Samford’s NIT hopes or anything, but it would move the Bulldogs in the wrong direction.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 25 teams (22 yesterday)
- Too cold – 13 teams (15 yesterday)
- Just right – 32 teams (30 yesterday)
If everyone more likely than not to make the NIT can stay where they’re at, we have our NIT field.
More commentary on last NITe in today’s notes, so check back before the games start for those bad boys.
