This NIT Bubble Watch is for Saturday, March 9th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
I dabbled in playing the French horn during my youth. It was at my mother’s behest. I remember being pretty on the fence about it, and against it a number of times, but the middle school had a good band director, so there I was at 6:15 on winter mornings, a sixth grader lugging his brass down Lake Avenue towards the bus stop. District 47 spent special, earlier buses for the band kids.
Waiting for the band bus is not a fond memory. But I could see Orion’s Belt quite clearly those mornings in the pitch black sky, and while I never knew which stars made up the rest of him, the belt must have stuck with me. Because last night, stepping out for a moment between Atlantic 10 basketball and Missouri Valley Conference basketball, I looked up and saw that belt again, brushed and covered by the clouds as they stampeded their way across the sky.
The stars never change. Not in our lifetimes, anyway. Burning balls of gas God knows how many years of lightspeed away, the stars are where we look for them, if we know where they reside. They were in the same space for Galileo. And so, trying to remember on which sidestreet I’d parked my car (I’d been watching the VCU on my phone while eating one pizza and drinking two beers), I was, as many are by the stars, reminded of my own smallness. The blazing gas, a half-million million million miles away. Our own little wet rock, spinning around our own gassy blob of fire. And it occurred to me, my eyes catching the light spat out hundreds of years ago by some nuclear reaction I don’t half understand:
How lucky we are to be living at the time of the dawn of the NIT.
Welcome to NIT Bubble Watch. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture are lumped together at the bottom. Like stars never bound into a constellation.
ACC
- Too Hot: Virginia
- Too Cold: Florida State, Boston College, Miami (FL)
- Just Right: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Wake Forest, NC State
The games:
- Notre Dame at Virginia Tech
- Miami (FL) at Florida State
- Boston College at Louisville
- Clemson at Wake Forest
- NC State at Pitt
- Georgia Tech at Virginia
Something I would like the bracketological masses to tell me is whether Wake Forest is dead dead (meaning, alive, very much with us) or if they’re going to play their way out of our reach if they beat Clemson. I think the former is true. I think Wake is pretty safely in our arms. But were I a consultant tasked with maximizing Wake Forest’s probability of making the NIT, I would lean over to Steve Forbes today in the final minutes, the Deacs behind by a pair, and I would softly whisper, “Lose.”
Virginia’s also in the world of the bubble, much to the chagrin of one angry person on Twitter a few weeks ago who did not learn his lesson despite me replying to all his tweets at me, as Virginia lost, telling him I hoped he’d learned his lesson. A nice thing about being a pretty small blog is that I can identify most of my haters. That UVA fan is near the top of the list. I hope he learned his lesson. I hope his team can find a way to drop this one and make the NIT. Make Georgia Tech look good, you know? That would probably be the ACC’s argument. Georgia Tech is simply too good.
NC State’s on the other bubble, living an alternative lifestyle in Raleigh. They don’t absolutely need to beat Pitt, but it would be the simplest way to make the NIT. All the other ways involve at least one instance of snarling at a camera, and we don’t think Kevin Keatts has it in him to snarl.
Virginia Tech? Playing for seeding. The Hokies can do whatever the heck they want. Which is kind of Mike Young’s M.O., now that I think of it. Pedulla and Cattoor? They have lives. Hopes. Worries. Fears. Mike Young’s just eatin’ his popcorn.
Then, there are Miami, Florida State, and Boston College. All trying to chase the NIT from beneath. Unfortunately, Miami and FSU play one another, and only one can win. Our 9-bid ACC dream might be in the riptide.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Northwestern
- Too Cold: Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers
- Just Right: Ohio State, Iowa, Maryland
I love that the Big Ten only scheduled one game today, and that it’s this one. I think it’s because of their women’s basketball tournament, and that’s also why this was the one, but I like the thought of someone at Big Ten Headquarters writing this down and then starting to write a second, and someone else grabbing them and saying, “No. No. Stop.”
*pause for effect*
“Minnesota vs. Northwestern needs to stand alone.”
- Minnesota at Northwestern
If you’re looking for an NIT path for Northwestern, it probably involves a home loss to a team on the NIT bubble. Minnesota, meanwhile, has played well enough that they’re only underdogs by a handful of points on the road against a team whose coach might win Big Ten Coach of the Year. Is everyone on Northwestern nursing a malady which might require amputation? Yes. But good for the Gophs. They’ve got a chance today. That’ll show the Big Ten for trying to hide this game behind Caitlin Clark.
Big East
- Too Hot: St. John’s, Villanova, Seton Hall
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, Providence, Xavier
One of my favorite jokes I never make is to look at someone after they say “Big East” with a disturbed and quizzical expression on my face. My hope, when I do this, is that they will ask me why I’m looking at them with a disturbed and quizzical expression on my face. If they do, I imagine myself replying, “Big Yeast?” To which they will say, “No! Big East. The basketball conference.” And I will relax my expression but retain some wariness, rising silently to walk away.
- Georgetown at St. John’s
- Creighton at Villanova
- Marquette at Xavier
- UConn at Providence
- DePaul at Seton Hall
One of my favorite things about the Big East this season is that we all keep waiting on Georgetown and DePaul to make moves, as though they are conventionally bad power conference teams like Oregon State and Notre Dame and North Carolina-Chapel Hill (morally). They do not, of course, make moves. They make lose! And yet…
It sure would help St. John’s and Seton Hall make the NIT if they were to find a way to give Georgetown and DePaul a win.
I don’t know what Villanova needs to do to make the NIT, but I do know losing two more games in a row would do it. Might be able to make it with less, but two more losses? That would play.
Xavier? They would do well to win. The sub-.500 monster lurks beneath the surface, and Xavier is nearly beneath that surface themselves, because that surface is .500 and Xavier is .500. If Xavier finishes beneath the surface? The monster will eat them. We think. I might be a little lost in this metaphor. Bottom line is Xavier can get an automatic bid with a sub-.500 overall record but we aren’t sure if they can get an at-large bid that way. The automatic bid would also be hard. It’s difficult to improve your NET while losing at home to a team missing its heart, soul, and point guard.
Providence just needs to take care of business (not upset UConn in a massive trap game for UConn in front of a boisterous Providence crowd).
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF
Contests of intellect and skill:
- Iowa State at Kansas State
- Oklahoma at Texas
- West Virginia at Cincinnati
- UCF at TCU
We don’t think Oklahoma can really make the NIT. We think they can just make people talk about whether they’re going to make the NIT. People do crazy things when they’re locked in a room together, though, especially when they’re locked there by a hostile force like the NCAA T*urnament. May God have mercy on that selection committee. (If you really want to make the NIT, Sooners, you should try to lose by a lot of points. For a team like Xavier, that would be bad. But you are not a team like Xavier. You are a team like Saint Mary’s.)
We don’t think Kansas State can really miss the NIT. We think they can just make people talk about whether they’re going to miss the NIT. People do crazy things when they’re locked in a room together, though, especially when they’re locked there by a hostile force like the NCAA Tourn*ment. May God have mercy on that selection committee. (If you’re worried about missing the NIT, Wildcats, you should try to not win by a lot of points. For a team like Minnesota, winning by a lot of points would be good. But you are not a team like Minnesota. You are a team like Virginia Tech. Also, though, don’t get smoked. Pay attention to the No Smoking sign. You’re not that safe.)
Cincinnati? Playing for seeding. We love when teams play for seeding. It feels elegant. Refined. Cincinnati is playing for the right to host Ohio State or Pitt or Virginia Tech rather than visiting them in the second round. You see? Classy stuff.
UCF and TCU could do something special if they worked together. People are already chattering a little about the Horned Frogs. UCF’s on .500 watch watch, which means we’re watching them to see if we need to put them on .500 watch. Ultimately, UCF can probably get away with anything but a dismantling, especially if K-State loses (those are the two racing for the Big 12’s second automatic bid). But TCU could use a loss, and it could especially use a home loss to someone like UCF.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Duquesne, VCU, St. Bonaventure, UMass
- Just Right: Richmond, Loyola (IL)
I don’t know how I didn’t type anything about VCU at Dayton yesterday in this space. I swear I knew it was happening. I erred. I am sorry.
Great game. Looked like VCU was going to punch its NIT ticket. Instead, Dayton did the punching, punching VCU square in the nuts (metaphorically). How’s Javon Bennett’s thumb? I don’t care. He’s not making the NIT. His thumbs are expendable. What we care about is that VCU’s still on the bubble. Today, involving its rivals:
- Saint Louis at St. Bonaventure
- George Washington at Duquesne
- Richmond at George Mason
- La Salle at Loyola
The bad thing for the Bonnies and the Dukes is that they can’t gain a lot with wins in home games against teams like these. The good thing for the Bonnies and the Dukes is that they might not need much to get (or stay) across the line.
Richmond can afford this loss, and could play GMU back into the mix, giving us that sixth Virginian candidate we’ve been craving (we like our NIT’s like we like our early U.S. presidents—poorly nourished by today’s standards and from Virginia). Loyola is in the same boat at St. Bonaventure and Duquesne but I didn’t notice them until I’d already written the preceding paragraph. Something about the A-10 distracts me. It must be the intoxicating aroma of the ghost of Tom Gola Arena. (I assume they already imploded that bitch.)
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Washington, Oregon, Utah
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
Andy Enfield sucks at coaching basketbaaaaaaaall!
A duopoly:
- Colorado at Oregon State
- Utah at Oregon
Last chance, Colorado. We think? I’m getting the impression we all don’t know how a group of twelve people who follow their own specific slice of college basketball will evaluate the performance of a team like Colorado in a manner contextualized against the backdrop of injury. (I thought the committee was way bigger than twelve people, by the way. Did they shrink it? Is Google lying to me? Can I not trust the internet anymore?????)
Oregon would like to give itself some sort of shot at a home game, and Utah would like to not give back any of the good favor it earned on Thursday by losing to Oregon State. I’m assuming they’ll work something out.
OH!
Had to come back and write this in.
Washington reportedly fired Mike Hopkins but is letting him stick around for the Pac-12 Tournament and the NIT. That feels like something that might change soon. Feels like it was maybe the thought but then either he’ll say “Hey wait a minute these fuckers fired me” or they’ll say “Hey wait a minute we want to hire a new coach this is really awkward.” The man is only 54. It’s not like they’re doing a Boeheim here.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU
Temple thought for the day: Who will punish Temple? Can the NCAA still punish for point-shaving? Or would the kickbacks players may have received qualify as NIL inducement?
- Memphis at FAU
- South Florida at Tulsa
Speaking of NIL inducement, Penny Hardaway visits FAU, and I feel like we’ve all been waiting for the fracas from last March to insert itself into the AAC’s daily life. Give me conflict, Memphis and FAU. In return (provided Memphis wins), I might be able to offer both of you a spot in the NIT (I have no power over who makes and doesn’t make the NIT other than that I pray to a Dick Vitale bobblehead about it every night).
South Florida plays Tulsa, and much like the Georgetown/DePaul thing above, I think we all keep saying, “Surely, eventually it happens, right?” and we all keep getting proven wrong. The Bulls might be getting close to a home game if they win this one. That might make it impossible for them to play UCF in the first round, though.
JUST SO EVERYBODY KNOWS WHAT’S AT STAKE.
SEC
- Too Hot: Texas A&M, Mississippi State
- Too Cold: Georgia
- Just Right: Mississippi, LSU
You ever think about how much more appropriate our college sports world is for children because conference is spelled conference and not xonfernece?
- Texas A&M at Mississippi
- South Carolina at Mississippi State
- Georgia at Auburn
- Missouri at LSU
Georgia and LSU need to win, Mississippi State needs to lose. Texas A&M? Best to lose. There’s some thought that winning would help their case for a 1-seed, but that’s a dangerous game. Mississippi is playing for seeding.
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley, Drake
Well, shit.
They all won.
I did appreciate how each ensuing game with these three was even less in doubt than the one before it.
Another attempt:
- Indiana State vs. Northern Iowa
- Drake vs. Bradley
I don’t think Indiana State’s entirely lost with a win, but they would be gained with a loss, and as we spent so much time discussing yesterday, I would like to gain them. Drake? Again, I’m a little scared we might lose them if they win. The only way we get all three of these teams is if Northern Iowa steps up and does something heroic on behalf of its rivals. Golly. What a mess. Arch Madness is here. And I’m the one who’s mad.
Sun Belt
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: James Madison, Appalachian State
Wow. I’m unexpectedly nervous for these:
- Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern
- James Madison vs. Marshall
Unlike with Indiana State and Drake, I don’t think these guys can miss the NIT through any path other than a conference tournament championship. So we’ve got a few chances. But boy, it’d sure be fun to get both of them. JMU’s athletic department’s the class of the nation, and App State…have you seen Yosef???
Good luck, Dukes and Mountaineers. We will be cheering for you (to lose).
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Colorado State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: UNLV
San Diego thinks itself known for tacos. San Diego State presumably thinks the same. But no number of street trucks can prepare you for a late Friday night against a team whose arena used to literally be named after Taco Bell. Cam Martin at the free throw line. Cam Martin with the block. ‘Til next year, Boise State. Good luck up there.
Today, at altitude (Has the MWC ever used “attitude at altitude” as a really lame tagline? Because that would be great. And lame.):
- Colorado State at Air Force
- New Mexico at Utah State
- UNLV at Nevada
I tore my Cracker Barrel shirt down the middle in a fit of despondence sometime last year. (I’ve developed an unfortunate habit of tearing shirts down the middle in my fits of despondence. It always adds to the despondence. Especially because I’m not all jacked and green when I come out. I’m just a fleshy little blogger. I’m not the Hulk!) So, I haven’t thought as much about this woman lately as I used to. But there is or was an older woman with a chiseled visage who in 2018 was working at the Cracker Barrel in Hammond, Indiana, and if you bought a Cracker Barrel shirt at that Cracker Barrel on Memorial Day—say, on the drive home from the Indy 500—she would chastise you for not buying something that supports the troops. The Cracker Barrel gift shop—in case you are unfamiliar—is full of red, white, blue, and glitter.
I would like that woman to have a talk with Colorado State this morning.
It’s in their (NIT chances’) best interest.
New Mexico has found its way to the bubble in the way I imagine Richard Pitino finds his way to most things in life—by doing his best, making a few mistakes along the way, and coming off as well-intentioned all the while, in the photo negative of that phenomenon where some of the nicest parents have some of the brattiest kids. Lobos? More like Lose mo’s. Because…yeah. They want to lose this one. For the NIT.
UNLV doesn’t need a win but could use one. Remember when we all went to Reno two months before I went to the Cracker Barrel in Hammond, Indiana? 2018 was great.
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
Nerds!
- Brown at Yale
- Cornell at Columbia
- Princeton at Penn
These feel like afterthought games for some reason, to my gut, but they are not at all afterthought games. They are the opposite. They are forethought games! We are thinking about them before they happen!
Yale and Cornell need wins, especially because of how they’ll need one loss next weekend at the Ivy League Tournament. Princeton? House money. Although how mad would the mid-major fetish folks be if the NCAA Tournam*nt’s First Four Out went Indiana State, Drake, Princeton, James Madison? They would be so angry. (Which I think is something they’re into?)
I have decided I would like Princeton to beat Penn. Fuck Ben Franklin. (I didn’t mean that Ben Franklin piece at all. I might actually want you to win! Penn, please do whatever has to be done to make the Palestra a potential future host of the NIT Final Four. I want to make a lot of jokes about Philly eclipsing New York.)
WCC
- Too Hot: Saint Mary’s
- Too Cold: San Francisco
- Just Right:
A game:
- San Francisco vs. Portland
You need to win this, Dons. We cannot be clearer.
The NIT Crawlspace (good stuff in here, but easy to forget it’s there)
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: Samford
- Just Right:
SoCon Tournament, WAC regular season finale (those feel fitting next to one another):
- Samford vs. Mercer
- Grand Canyon at Cal Baptist
Samford should win this one and lose later in the tournament. Grand Canyon? This is like Week 17 for them (I haven’t adopted the 17-game NFL season). Rest the starters. Or get them really tired? You’ve got an NIT push ahead of you in WAC Vegas.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 17 teams (15 yesterday)
- Too cold – 15 teams (15 yesterday)
- Just right – 30 teams (30 yesterday)
The NIT!
