This NIT Bubble Watch is for Friday, March 8th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
As this is written, Robbie Avila and the Indiana State Sycamores are tipping off. So—with apologies to Utah, whose stirring performance in Corvallis last night made them a much stronger NIT contender—that’s getting top billing. Between the magic of Larry Bird, the electricity of Avila, and our dreams of seeing thousands of Indiana State fans pack Hinkle Fieldhouse to the rafters, we very much want Indiana State in the NIT.
(There have to be thousands of them, right?)
NIT Bubble Watch. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture are lumped together at the bottom. Like crusts discarded from a child’s peanut butter & jelly sandwiches, but if the crusts were actually nutritious and that wasn’t a weird myth.
ACC
- Too Hot: Virginia
- Too Cold: NC State, Florida State, Boston College, Miami (FL)
- Just Right: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Wake Forest
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Northwestern
- Too Cold: Minnesota, Rutgers
- Just Right: Ohio State, Iowa, Maryland, Indiana
Rutgers gave it everything they had, but you don’t bet against the Kohl Center on Senior Night. If there are two things Midwestern parents love, those are Wisconsin basketball and athletes getting their degree. That place was always going to be politely loud for the Rutgers game.
Big East
- Too Hot: St. John’s, Villanova, Seton Hall
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, Providence, Xavier
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Duquesne, VCU, St. Bonaventure, UMass
- Just Right: Richmond, Loyola (IL)
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Washington, Oregon, Utah
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
Feels like Forty-Seveeeeeeeeen!
In 1947, Utah won the NIT. The tournament had a loaded field: Bradley. Duquesne. Kentucky. LIU. NC State. St. John’s. Utah. West Virginia. For a lot of programs, some things never change.
Since 1947, things haven’t been as glamorous for ol’ Utah. They’ve made the NIT Championship twice (we all remember 2018, fewer of us were around for 1974), but they haven’t won it. And while we love NIT participants, we stand in awe before NIT champions.
Enter the 2024 Utah Utes. Because for as bad as last night’s game went, they proved one thing as they let Oregon State shred their NCAA T*urnament nightmares:
They can make a lot of shots.
I mean it was great shot-making down the stretch, guys. Great, great, great, shot-making. Was it great shot-making earlier? No! But we didn’t say they “will” make a lot of shots. We said they’re capable of it.
It’s with a heavy heart that we wish Colorado and its NBA talent farewell, at least for now (we’ll be back on board tomorrow, but we need a day off). It’s with a buoyant heart that we congratulate Washington on reestablishing itself as an NIT contender. Not necessarily to win it. But to give us a game that tips at 11 PM Eastern on opening night.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU
My question with Temple and the point-shaving allegations is this:
If Temple has been intentionally underperforming expectations all year, and if bettors’ expectations for Temple have had to adjust after every game to account for the underperformance, doesn’t that mean Temple has had to play even worse than the last time every single time they take the court? Bit by bit, hasn’t Temple had to turn itself into a terrible team?
If so, and if they can’t point shave anymore because they got (allegedly) caught, is it possible Temple is the best team in the country?
SEC
- Too Hot: Texas A&M, Mississippi State
- Too Cold: Georgia
- Just Right: Mississippi, LSU
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley, Drake
Massive day ahead of us:
- Indiana State vs. Missouri State
- Drake vs. Evansville
- Bradley vs. UIC
If Indiana State loses, I believe they’ll be an NIT lock. If Drake loses, I’m even more confident. Bradley? They probably need to win one more. We have eleven hours of Arch Madness in front of it, and I intend to memorize every local hotel they list on that slide during the halftime shows.
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Boise State, Colorado State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: UNLV
ToNITe:
- Boise State at San Diego State
It’s now or never, Broncos.
Sun Belt
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: James Madison, Appalachian State
We have opponents!
Or, I mean, JMU and App State do.
Although we do have opponents. There are people who do not like our coverage of the NIT. Usually, these are people whose team is likely to make the NIT. Specifically, I’m talking about a certain type of Syracuse fan.
JMU will play Marshall. App State will play Georgia Southern. Those are just the Sun Belt quarterfinals. We might have a long way to go. They happen tomorrow.
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
Oh, you’re done studying? About time!
Oh shoot. I misread the schedule. Still no Ivy League games tonight. They’re back tomorrow.
WCC
- Too Hot: Saint Mary’s
- Too Cold: San Francisco
- Just Right:
Saint Mary’s and San Francisco’s NIT chances were unaffected by Pacific exiting the WCC Tournament
NIT Foreign Exchange Students (these are the teams from conferences with only one NIT contender)
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: Samford
- Just Right:
UC Irvine won last night, but it wasn’t by a thousand points. We explicitly said they’d be best served by winning by one thousand points. Instead? A measly 14. Goodbye again, Anteaters.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 18 teams (19 yesterday)
- Too cold – 15 teams (18 yesterday)
- Just right – 30 teams (28 yesterday)
Don’t forget to tell the NIT you love it. We only get so many chances in this fragile thing we call life.
