We did a much longer NIT Bubble Watch yesterday morning, so if you’re looking for the picture in full detail, read that and then come back. This will only cover things that changed yesterday.
NIT Bubble Watch works like other Bubble Watches except it’s better, focused on the right side of history. Here are the categories.
- Just Right: >50% NIT chance, per Joe Stunardi’s model
- Too Hot: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NCAA T*urnament
- Too Cold: <50% NIT chance, aimed below NIT
- It’s Complicated: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NIT but the College Basketball Crown is burdening their efforts
- Locked Out of Heaven: 0% NIT chance, too low
- Locked Into Hell: 0% NIT chance, going to the NCAA T*urnament
The other things to know are that if a team is bolded, that means that team moved across categories as a result of yesterday’s games, and if a team is in all caps, that means we expect them to receive an NIT invitation and we would, in the old world (and come again it shall), call them NIT locks. If we’re really concerned our model’s wrong about a team, we’ll adjust their category here, and Joe Stunardi will talk about it elsewhere on this website at some point before the Selection Show.
Today’s date is Sunday, March 16th. This is the final NIT Bubble Watch of the season. Pour one out, but at the same time: What we relinquish here on Earth (NIT Bubble Watch) will reward us in Heaven (The NIT).
ACC: Watching UNC
- Retired: Florida State
- Fired: Virginia
- Recruiting: Pitt
- Too Cold: Notre Dame
- Just Right: Georgia Tech, North Carolina, SMU, STANFORD, WAKE FOREST
- Locked Out of Heaven: Boston College, Cal, Miami (FL), NC State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
- Locked Into Hell: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
UNC knows what’s coming. If they stay silent after the NCAA T*urnament Selection Show, we’ve got ‘em. If they announce an opt-out, well, six more years of winter.
Georgia Tech’s right on the bubble but should find their way in. SMU and Wake Forest should host in the first round. No guarantee on Wake, but reports indicate Steve Forbes is staying.
SEC: Watching Texas
- Too Hot: Texas
- Just Right: LSU, SOUTH CAROLINA
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
It’s theoretically possible another SEC team could miss the NCAAT (lucky them!), but we’re probably getting LSU, South Carolina, and then maybe Texas. Although with Texas expected to fire Rodney Terry if the Longhorns are excluded, this might be a moot point. Mostly, we want Texas in the NCAA T*urnament because we want Nebraska in the NIT, and to get Nebraska in the NIT, we need Indiana in the Crown. We covered all this yesterday, but I am obsessively thinking about Nebraska making the NIT, so now you get to think about it too.
Nothing against Texas, though. Hook ‘em.
Atlantic 10: Play-In Time
- Too Hot: VCU
- Too Cold: George Washington, Saint Louis
- Just Right: DAYTON, George Mason, Loyola Chicago, SAINT JOSEPH’S, ST. BONAVENTURE
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
The Flyers, Hawks, and Bonnies are getting the call. SLU’s a strong possibility. GW’s a weak possibility. And then the loser of VCU/George Mason will most likely make it. VCU could still get screwed into the NCAA T*urnament, but that would require the NCAA T*urnament Selection Committee doing a lot more work. Easier for them to just give VCU its well-earned NIT 1-seed if the Rams lose.
Mountain West: Boise Boys
- Too Hot: San Diego State
- Fired: UNLV
- Just Right: Boise State, Nevada
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Colorado State, New Mexico, and Utah State
- Locked Into Hell: Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State
We wanted Nique Clifford, but we will happily take these Boise boys instead. Great vibes on that team. Everybody looks like they’re from Boise.
Nevada should make it when everything’s said and done. They’d need a lot of bad luck to not end up in line for a bid.
Our model likes San Diego State for the NIT, but it’s an outlier there. Stupid model. Embarrassing us in front of our friends.
UNLV fired Kevin Kruger and didn’t name an interim when they announced it.
WCC: Three-Bid League
- Too Cold: Washington State
- Just Right: Oregon State, SAN FRANCISCO, SANTA CLARA
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s
- Locked Into Hell: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Nothing much to report here. We should get Oregon State. Doubtful we’ll get Washington State but it’s possible.
Big 12: TCU. Please.
- Just Right: Colorado, Oklahoma State, TCU
- It’s Complicated: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF, Utah
- Locked Into Hell: Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
TCU and UCF are now tied in the average of NET and KPI, so that’s confusing. One of them will get the Big 12’s second Crown automatic bid. The fear here is that Brett Yormark’s going to use this to try to pressure the other into joining the Crown too. Someone should create a class about college basketball and teach it to Brett Yormark. Guy’s out here assaulting our eyes with his courts and assaulting our postseason with his fetish for TV boondoggles.
Big Ten: Nebrasketball
- Too Cold: Washington
- Just Right: Penn State
- Fired: Iowa, Minnesota
- Disappointed: Rutgers
- It’s Complicated: Indiana, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, USC
- Locked Into Hell: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Rutgers announced this morning that they’re opting out, which is a waste of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey but hey, give ‘em credit for consistency on that front.
We want Nebraska. We should get Penn State. Indiana deserves the Crown more than anyone besides Brett Yormark. Indiana won’t enjoy it like he will. That’s what makes them deserve it.
Big East: Georgetown? Who Else?
- Too Cold: DePaul, Providence
- Just Right: Georgetown
- It’s Complicated: Butler, Villanova, Xavier
- Locked Out of Heaven: Seton Hall
- Locked Into Hell: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
We should get Butler as the exempt bid here. Will we get Georgetown too? If something goes catastrophically wrong could we luck into a DePaul/Loyola first-round matchup which would make the NIT the belle of Chicago??
The Big East is always intriguing.
Missouri Valley: UNI?
- Too Cold: Belmont, Northern Iowa
- Just Right: BRADLEY
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Drake
- Locked Into Hell: Drake
UNI’s inching closer. We doubted. We apologize for doubting.
Belmont? Man, we’d love that. Casey Alexander reunion tour.
The American: Yax Yax Yax
- Too Cold: Florida Atlantic
- Just Right: NORTH TEXAS, UAB
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Memphis
- Locked Into Hell: Memphis
We’ve got a win-win in the AAC. Either UAB loses, and we probably get them in the NIT, or UAB wins and we get that extra bid thief we want in the NCAA T*urnament. It’s about vengeance. That’s what this is about.
Conference USA: MTSU!
- Too Cold: Jacksonville State
- Just Right: MIDDLE TENNESSEE
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Liberty
- Locked Into Hell: Liberty
Liberty, I know this hurts you more than anybody, but I think we all knew your theology was a little off-base during late-stage Falwell. Rein it in, Flames. Rein it in.
Big West:UC Irvine!
- Too Cold: Cal State-Northridge
- Just Right: UC IRVINE
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides UC San Diego
- Locked Into Hell: UC San Diego
We say it again: Zot.
WAC: The Wolverines Return
- Just Right: UTAH VALLEY
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Grand Canyon
- Locked Into Hell: Grand Canyon
Todd Phillips. I accidentally called him Craig somewhere. Todd Phillips. We like that guy.
SoCon: In the Mix
- Too Cold: Samford, Furman
- Just Right: CHATTANOOGA
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
They’re in the mix.
One-Bid Leagues: North Alabama Wants This
- Too Hot: Yale
- Too Cold: Cornell, North Alabama
- Just Right: Arkansas State, NORTHERN COLORADO
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else in the whole darn country
- Locked Into Hell: Akron, Alabama State, American, Bryant, High Point, Lipscomb, McNeese, Montana, Mount St. Mary’s, Norfolk State, Omaha, Robert Morris, Saint Francis, SIU-Edwardsville, Troy, UNC Wilmington, Wofford
We’d love to have UNA in our field, to be clear. We know they want it. We don’t think it’s happening this year, but hopefully that makes it even sweeter when they earn it in 2026.
**
