At halftime of Texas’s 2019 second round NIT game (an overtime victory over Xavier), a woman approached me to ask what in the world I was doing. Believing that occupying an otherwise empty section with eleven different signs proclaiming my love for the NIT kind of explained itself, I didn’t know how to answer. An awkward conversation ensued. Towards the end, the woman said that her son was a redshirting freshman on the Longhorn team. He was “that little Mexican at the end of the bench.”
So began my awareness of Brock Cunningham.
We aren’t going to get Brock Cunningham in the NIT this year. We won’t get Texas at all. But what timely reference from last night were we going to open this NIT Bubble Watch with. Something about NC State? Those fans are miserable right now!
As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture will be treated as isolated city-states it’s easier to refer to as one entity even if that’s historically incorrect.
This NIT Bubble Watch is for Tuesday, March 5th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
ACC
- Too Hot: Wake Forest, Virginia
- Too Cold: NC State, Florida State, Miami (FL), Boston College
- Just Right: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse
It’s possible to get colder when you’re already Too Cold, and after a valiant first half, it turned out Kyle Filipowski sitting might impact Duke’s effectiveness on the offensive end. Maybe the Wake Forest undergraduate who clubbed him with a mace was on to something.
NC State: You’re not out of the picture. But we aren’t holding our breath on a Raleigh quarterfinal that lives up to 2019’s.
ToNITe:
- Virginia Tech at Louisville
- Syracuse at Clemson
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest
- Florida State at Pitt
Why does every mention of Louisville these days make me laugh uneasily? I’m not normally a nervous laugher. But man, this is the exact kind of game Virginia Tech might lose, and while the Hokies have some space (it’s pretty unlikely they’ll miss the NIT on the low end), their chances of home games would be destroyed were they to…………………
Turn themselves about.
*ducks*
Syracuse has a chance to complete the UNC/Pitt–twice/Clemson sweep, something which is not at all a thing but might become a thing as Syracuse fans holler, “We swept UNC, Pitt (twice), and Clemson!” at Joe Lunardi’s taunting image when they try to go to sleep. Syracuse fans always use parentheticals when they yell at perceived specters. I don’t think I’m worried about Syracuse missing the NIT? That’s still very much a question.
Wake hosts Georgia Tech, and I’m laughing uneasily again. Georgia Tech’s won two in a row, folks. Got UVA on Saturday in Charlottesville. Would be pretty funny.
Finally, Florida State has a good opportunity and Pitt has a bad one. ‘Noles are on .500 watch in addition to sitting aimed below the NIT bubble. Pitt? Much like Syracuse, I’m not worried about them? Again, a question.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Michigan State, Northwestern
- Too Cold: Rutgers, Indiana
- Just Right: Ohio State, Minnesota, Iowa, Maryland
No Big Ten action on linear television this evening. No NIT-relevant Big Ten action anywhere in the world. (The women’s tournaments are the WBIT and the WNIT, neither of which is technically named the NIT.)
Big East
- Too Hot: St. John’s, Villanova
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, Providence, Xavier, Seton Hall
The Big East roars back to something adjacent to life:
- Providence at Georgetown
- St. John’s at DePaul
Oh lordy. Ed Cooley vs. Providence. St. John’s favored by 20 on the road. What did they do to our league? (Humongous opportunity for St. John’s. Providence’s NIT hopes might be better served by winning. Seeding thing.)
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: UMass, Duquesne
- Just Right: Richmond, St. Bonaventure, VCU, Loyola (IL)
Sorry, Arch-Baron Cuppers. Just the one on this list:
- Duquesne at VCU
VCU needs this. Duquesne needs this. I’m pulling the trigger. Game of the NITe.
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Kansas State, Cincinnati, UCF
On the plains:
- Cincinnati at Oklahoma
- Kansas State at Kansas
A play-in/play-out game, in some senses, for the Bearcats and the Sooners, though Cincy’s worked their way to pretty safe land. A play-out game to get to another play-out game, then. A little pigtail on the proverbial NIT bracket of life.
I’m brave enough to say that I don’t think K-State misses the NIT with a win in Lawrence. I’m also brave enough to admit that I don’t think I have much risk of being proven wrong. (If I have to fake my own death, I will. We’ve always accepted that as a possibility of how this public NIT fanhood ends.)
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU
Le game (because Tulane is involved):
- Tulane at South Florida
It is possible for USF to miss the NIT low. That is still a possibility that exists in this universe. Take it up with the AAC. They’re the ones who scheduled USF at the kids table. (Or, you know, USF could just beat Tulane at home, in which case it might no longer be possible for USF to miss the NIT low.)
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Utah, Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington
*Jean-Ralphio voice but whispering*
Silencccccccccccce
(No games ‘til Thursday)
SEC
- Too Hot: Mississippi State
- Too Cold: Georgia
- Just Right: Mississippi, LSU, Texas A&M
Mm:
- Mississippi at Georgia
Does every Dawg really have its day?
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley, Drake
Sun Belt
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: James Madison, Appalachian State
The Sun Belt Tournament starts today, but we have four days before JMU or App State plays. There’s probably a rooting interest for JMU and App State people wishing to make the NIT, but we might be dealing with a tree falling in the forest if we figure out what it is.
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Colorado State, Nevada, Boise State
- Too Cold: UNLV
- Just Right:
Late-NITe!
- San Diego State at UNLV
- Nevada at Boise State
Nice little opportunity for UNLV at home. Nevada/Boise State play-out game. The loser? Whoever wins.
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
There is an Ivy League game tonight (featuring none of these three teams), and enjoy it, because it’s the last time there’ll be Tuesday Ivy League hoops for the rest of humanity’s future. Collective bargaining is coming for that ass, Ivy League! Here we were thinking the SEC was profiting off of players, and it was you dorks the whole time!
WCC
- Too Hot: Saint Mary’s
- Too Cold: San Francisco
- Just Right:
The NIT Corona, Shimmering but Only Visible in the Most Chance of Conditions
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: Samford, UC Irvine
- Just Right:
McNeese beat Houston Christian last night. They play New Orleans tomorrow. Multiple weeknight games in the same week? Respect. Dartmouth players’ lawyers have no power in Louisiana.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 20 teams (21 yesterday)
- Too cold – 15 teams (15 yesterday)
- Just right – 31 teams (31 yesterday)
What if we got nine ACC teams into the NIT?
