The NIT approaches.
I’m not sure who created Bubble Watch. My first encounter with it came when Eamonn Brennan did it for ESPN, so I give him credit in my head, but if anyone knows who created this general format for exploring the NIT picture (often in a roundabout way, but to each their own), I would love to be educated on the matter.
Now.
Who’s going to make the NIT?
We’ve broken each league up into three categories. Goldilocks categories. You’re either too hot (lose more!), too cold (win more!), or just right (this is often the most complicated place to be). The plan from here is to, every day, update the categories with help from our model, looking at what happened the night before and what’s on tap for the evening ahead. Teams won’t get a direct mention unless they played, they’re about to play, or something else is going on of note with their NIT candidacy.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture will be treated as one big mess of NIT frailty, down at the bottom. Are we taking this too seriously? No. And if you’re the person who just asked that, we’re asking you to close this tab and think about what you’ve done. You can reopen it when you’ve repented.
This NIT Bubble Watch is for Tuesday, February 27th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can find that here.
ACC
- Too Hot: Virginia
- Too Cold: Florida State, Boston College, Miami (FL), Wake Forest
- Just Right: Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, NC State
Miami almost did it. They almost defended the honor of the NIT. Was that their goal? Doubtful. But when someone pulls UNC’s pants down and points and laughs at their “I hate playing basketball” underwear, we take that as defense of the honor of the NIT, and we appreciate it. Miami came very close to doing exactly that last night at the Dean Dome.
But alas! The Tropical Depressions couldn’t do enough, the NIT’s honor goes undefended, and Miami remains on the outside looking up.
In relevant ACC action toNITe, we have…
- NC State visiting Florida State.
- Wake Forest visiting Notre Dame.
- Pitt taking a trip down to Clemson.
- Syracuse hosting Virginia Tech.
When you’re in the sweet spot, road wins are often something you want to avoid, so there are clear interests on all sides of these matchups. Even Wake Forest has a chance to gain back some NIT ground, walking into a perfect trap game against a Notre Dame team who’s won three of four, albeit against ACC competition.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Northwestern, Michigan State, Nebraska
- Too Cold: Rutgers, Penn State
- Just Right: Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota
No Big Ten games last night, but a quick mention of Indiana: Yep. Too low. So cold that they even fall short of our “Too Cold” boundary. They are too too cold. This sucks. We really wanted Indiana fans at Hinkle Fieldhouse for the NIT Final Four.
This evening in the Great Lakes Region Plus Eastern Satellite Provinces, we’ve got:
- Penn State at Iowa
- That’s it.
- Forgot the Big Ten tries to keep the big games per night at 1.
- Why doesn’t the Big Ten play on Mondays?
- Does the Big Ten play on Mondays, and am I falling captive to a major bout of recency bias?
Penn State still has a chance, but they really need wins. Whatever way they can get them, the Nittany Lions need to win. Iowa? Losing would help their NIT case in a big way, but they’re not just in it to make this thing. The Hawkeyes have a chance to win it all. With that in the picture, it gets more nuanced. Patronizing towards agriculture though that university may be, every Iowan still knows: You need a good seed.
Big East
- Too Hot: Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, St. John’s, Xavier
Again, no Big East action last night. Unless you count West Virginia and Miami as Big East schools. In that case, there was Big East action last night. (I love the thought of a Big East purist who is not an Old Big East purist. A BCS era Big East purist. Makes me smile.)
ToNITe!
- Georgetown at Villanova
One big game?? Is Kevin Pauga scheduling for the Big East too???
Villanova can get away with winning this one. If I was scripting Villanova’s NIT push, it would be to win this and then lose the next three. But who am I to tell a dreamer what to dream? Go, Wildcats. Find yourselves. If you want to give Ed Cooley a Big East winning streak for the first time in over a year, then do what your heart desires.
Big 12
- Too Hot: Texas, Oklahoma, TCU
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF
Yes, TCU is alive in the NIT picture, and as anyone who watched The Avery Anderson Sequence at the end of last night’s first half can tell you, they’re more than capable of looking the part. Is Ernest Udeh Jr. what calms this team down and keeps them functional? We are asking.
Kansas State, meanwhile, is our Team of the NITe after blowing a 25-point lead but still beating West Virginia, pulling out the trump card which is: “We cannot lose during overtime.” (Another trump card: Kerr Kriisa decided it was no longer RaeQuan Battle time and was, in fact, Kerr Kriisa time. It was not, as it turned out, Kerr Kriisa time.) Jerome Tang was disappointed in the fan turnout and said as much after the game. The fan turnout? It may have also been disappointed in Jerome Tang. Either way, NIT diehards got some Tylor Perry heroics, and that’s all we want from our beautiful reigning MVP.
This evening…
- Texas goes to Texas Tech.
- Cincinnati visits Houston.
The trip to Houston is a landmine for Cincinnati, but one of those that’s really, really old. Will it explode? Probably not. But if it does, Cincinnati’s NIT chances are going to look a little gory come morning. Or, maybe the metaphor’s more literal. Maybe Houston will rip Viktor Lakhin’s legs off his body. That’s always a risk with Houston. They’re always on Dismemberment Watch. Must be an oil thing.
On another side of the state, Rodney Terry’s team goes to Lubbock, and I saw that a Texas radio guy was talking court-storming today and I hope he was not talking about it vis-à-vis Texas Tech potentially storming the court tonight against the Longhorns. I don’t think Texas needs to worry about Texas Tech storming the court if it wins. Houston isn’t going to storm the court if they beat Cincinnati. You know?
A thing about Texas is that nobody is realizing how bad they are, and that is even more true when applied to Texas themselves. There is a real chance of NIT games being played at the Moody Center. Possibly even with a Spurs logo on the floor. (Selection Sunday is Spurs Weekend in Austin. Also the end of SXSW, I think? We should do a SXSW event next year. I’ve said that each of the last three or four years.)
So, yeah, Texas should lose tonight. In both the predictive and advisory senses of that word.
Atlantic 10
Well, well, well, look at the A-10!
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: St. Bonaventure, Loyola (IL), George Mason, UMass, Duquesne
- Just Right: Richmond, VCU
I don’t *think* the A-10 played last night. You never really know, though. This evening:
- Loyola at St. Bonaventure
- George Mason at Fordham
- UMass at George Washington
Remember Fordham? They were sneaking around the NIT’s windows last year. Got spooked off by the motion-activated raccoon lights, but we saw some sneakin’. George Mason plays up there, and the Patriots need a win. Similarly, the Minutemen need to beat their old commander in chief, George Washington. (Was Washington the commander in chief of the minutemen? Or had they disbanded by the time the Continental Army got set up? Or were they existing in parallel to the Continental Army? I know what Wikipedia page I’ll be reading before bed tonight.)
The big one is, of course, Loyola’s trip to St. Bonaventure. It’s a bubble game. Both teams need wins. Only one team will get this particular win. I would imagine the local commentators affiliated with the university and subcontracted to ESPN+ will make this clear to the faithful.
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington, Utah
The Pac-12 mostly plays on Thursdays and Saturdays. Because of academics.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, SMU, South Florida
Nothing here either. I don’t know when the AAC plays. A lot on Sundays. A whole whole lot on Sundays. Remember when ESPN tried to destroy the Big 12 and swallow its embers into the American? Those guys really overestimated the Pac-12’s appetite for conquest.
SEC
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Georgia
- Just Right: Mississippi, Texas A&M, LSU
Our Game of the NITe:
- Georgia at LSU
So here’s how this works. The SEC gets two automatic bids to the NIT. Those go to their two highest finishers in NET, once you take out all the teams who were sentenced to playing in the NCAA T*urnament. Right now? It looks like those will be Mississippi and Texas A&M. BUT! If one of those teams wins a little too much (we’re watching you, Aggies), then it’ll be Georgia or LSU. LSU holds the advantage right now. What an opportunity for the Dawgs.
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Drake, Bradley
No action here today. The MVC is currently a cold war. (But not with that little spring the Midwest has going, am I right!)
Mountain West
- Too Hot: Nevada, Boise State, New Mexico
- Too Cold: UNLV
- Just Right:
As someone who visited Las Vegas during the last week of March in 2023, I can confirm: that city is too cold.
ToNITe:
- UNLV at Wyoming
- Boise State at Air Force
Such a dangerous game for the Runnin’ Rebels. Is Wyoming good? No. But Arena-Auditorium looks really, really cool on TV. That swings the line by what, a hundred points?
Meanwhile, Boise State has a chance to do what New Mexico did to get themselves back in the NIT picture. This one’s in Colorado Springs, which would lessen its impact, but the Broncos don’t need much! (You know how you know the military is lying to you? Air Force’s fight song says, “No one can stop the U.S. Air Force!” and their teams lose all the time.)
Sun Belt
- Too Hot: James Madison
- Too Cold: Appalachian State
- Just Right:
As with McNeese, below, this is almost entirely about the conference tournament with JMU. Unlike McNeese, JMU is not an overwhelming favorite in the Sun Belt Tourney.
WCC
- Too Hot: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: San Francisco
Nothing here tonight either. Sometimes I think West Coast teams play later in the week because more people will stay up to watch them on Thursday nights than Tuesday nights. That feels like one of those things where I’m overestimating how much everyone else is like me, though.
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
More likely than not, we get Princeton. And you know who’s from Indiana? All sorts of people. Among them? Mitch Henderson.
The NIT Frontiers, Where the Downtrodden Dream of Indy
- Too Hot: McNeese
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Samford
McNeese escaped Lamar last night in Beaumont (that’s where Lamar is), and the Cowboys are just really likely to win the Southland Tournament. It’s not that losing more would directly help them. It’s that they need to lose during the Southland Tournament. We’re in wait and see mode on these guys.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 20 teams
- Too cold – 16 teams
- Just right – 30 teams
More teams can still join and leave the mix, but right now, we have 66 main characters playing for 32 coveted spots. Godspeed.
