First: A very happy Lead Day to you and yours. I hope you enjoy your rhubarb. Second: NIT Bubble Watch! Our latest look at the NIT bubble picture, guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture will be treated as one small mess of NIT frailty, down at the bottom.
This NIT Bubble Watch is for Thursday, February 29th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
ACC
- Too Hot: Wake Forest, Virginia
- Too Cold: Miami (FL), Boston College
- Just Right: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, NC State, Florida State
I’m sorry, but if we’re going to make fun of Virginia’s offense, we have to ask how bad Boston College’s defense must be. 72 points from UVA. Well over a point per possession. Eagles…get it together.
The result is tragedy: Both teams slide further from the NIT picture. We all hate to see it.
Big East
- Too Hot: St. John’s, Villanova
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence
Busy night last night in the Omaha-to-Rhode Island region of our country. Blowouts everywhere. The most noteworthy came in the Game of the NITe, where St. John’s grabbed a highly unnecessary road win and played their way to the wrong side of NIT likelihood. Thankfully, we got a 2-for-1 in the trade, acquiring Seton Hall (smacked by Creighton) and Providence (smacked by Marquette), both of whom moved into the sweet spot.
Elsewhere, Xavier took care of DePaul. I don’t know why, but when referring to DePaul I find myself acting as though they’re a minor character in a mafia movie who simply needed to be dealt with. Talk about it quickly. Use a euphemism for what happened. I don’t like it either, guys.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Michigan State, Nebraska
- Too Cold: Rutgers, Indiana
- Just Right: Ohio State, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota
Goodbye, Northwestern. We can’t believe it, but the team that lost to Chicago State then lost Ty Berry is too good for us. Are we happy for them? No. That would be cruel! They’re not going to the NIT. (They aren’t locked out just yet, but…we all see where this is going. They’re no Michigan State, folks.)
With the loss, the Terrapins pick up a little danger of missing the NIT outright, which is a concerning prospect. Probably just need to win one of the next two games. Please win one of the next two games. Although…we do like Indiana, whom Maryland plays next. This is too hard.
Minnesota mostly kept up with Illinois, but the Gophers didn’t do enough. They remain a bubble team.
ToNITe:
- Nebraska at Ohio State
- Michigan at Rutgers
Guys…
Dug McDaniel can play on the road again.
Will this reinvigorate Michigan’s NIT hopes? No. The Wolverines are 8–20. Excuse my language, but you need to learn about the NIT if you think the NIT is about to take an 8–20 team in anything other than a situation of massive Fox Sports-induced duress.
It may, however, twist the knife for Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights need this one.
In Columbus, Ohio State is still in a little more danger of missing the NIT on the low side than they are on the high side, although it’s very close between those poles. Nebraska is alive, but if they win this one, they’ll go the way of Northwestern. I don’t know what these teams want, but I know what I want for them.
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF
With all the losses from bubble teams last night, we’ve picked up a loss of our own: Texas is no longer any sort of realistic NIT candidate. They’re down to 1-in-30. Horns? Down.
UCF survived in Stillwater, which is a massive boost for the Knights. That was a dangerous game, and they didn’t lose it. Strong NIT contender right now. No resurrection for the Pokes.
Oklahoma was woeful offensively (and offensively woeful!) against Iowa State, but the game was in Ames and Iowa State’s good and OU already has 19 wins, which should be enough to miss us? If the bubble firms up, though, keep an eye on these guys. They’ve lost three of four, their best wins are either at home or against NIT teams, and they close against Houston (H), Cincinnati (H), and Texas (A) before the Big 12 Tournament. Like TCU, these guys are not at all out of it. The Big 12 may claim some victims before OU can escape to the softer Southeastern clime.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Loyola (IL), UMass, George Mason, Duquesne
- Just Right: Richmond, VCU, St. Bonaventure
Like its convergently evolved cousin, the Big East, the A-10 saw no close games last night. The result? VCU and Richmond further entrenched themselves on our end of the battlefield, while Duquesne clung to life out in no-man’s land (this metaphor isn’t working at all, but I liked the word entrenched and everything else I tried sounded sexual).
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington, Utah
We were ready for the Mark Madsen night and the Jordan Pope night. We got neither (although Cal had some great dunks, because Mark Madsen only coaches Dudes, and Jordan Pope did put up 22 without registering a turnover). Colorado gained ground in their escape attempt, partly thanks to attrition, while Kwame Evans Jr. kept Oregon in line for a first round home game. Dana Altman also has a habit of coaching Dudes. He aligns Dude-ik’s Cubes. (Man, none of this is working today.)
This evening:
- UCLA at Washington
- Stanford at Utah
Washington’s looking to shore up the rough edges (they’ll probably need an at-large bid if Colorado and/or Utah make the NIT), but we hold out hope for a UCLA rebirth. Apologies to the Huskies. We want Bill Walton on an NIT call.
Utah, meanwhile, could make some gains with a loss to Stanford. They can’t like all the NIT pushes those Big East teams made last night. Not a lot of damage with a win, but they’re in danger of getting conscripted to the NCA* Tournament by default.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, SMU, South Florida
We were hopeful for our friends North Texas after last night, but our computer still has them just shy of the 5% mark. One spin zone for our beloved Mean Green: Thanks to the AAC Tournament, they’re more likely to make the NCAA T*urnament than the NIT. We don’t think that’s a good thing, but we know a lot of people who do.
Today’s AAC slate:
- Memphis at East Carolina
Memphis remains in some danger of missing the NIT, even with the recent turnaround. Winning this would be wise.
SEC
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Georgia
- Just Right: Mississippi, Texas A&M, LSU
Like Texas, we lost Mississippi State overnight thanks to the other bubble movement. The Bulldogs are now too likely to evade our grasp. No other significant movement here (Mississippi took care of business against Alabama, by which I mean they declined to play defense and lost their sixth of seven), although…
The last 20 seconds of the Texas A&M game included:
- Jace Carter accidentally tackling a referee.
- Wade Taylor briefly playing the hero.
- Some disastrous miscommunication between Andersson Garcia, Henry Coleman, and maybe Tyrece Radford leaving Zachary Davis wide open for the game-winning South Carolina bucket.
- Buzz Williams barely getting a timeout called before Garcia threw the ball straight out of bounds on the ensuing inbounds pass.
- Texas A&M’s clock-keeper starting the clock early, forcing their last-second play to be blown dead, forcing them to audible to an alternate offensive play.
- Taylor tripping (over what, I’m not positive) as he dribbled past Jacobi Wright, then rolling the ball back to Garcia, who accidentally kicked it and fell on his face as the buzzer sounded. (Ta’Lon Cooper was, like a stock car, also caught up in this self-induced Aggie melee.)
It was a very sad moment, but the bright side is that it really improved A&M’s NIT chances, which should be safe unless they manage to lose all three of their remaining regular season games. Actually, even if they do that they’ll probably be safe because of NET and the automatic bid. Texas A&M: Almost definitely making the NIT.
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley, Drake
I understand Robbie Avila went off like the king he is against Evansville, and credit to Bradley for bludgeoning SIU, but the Drake/UIC game was the best of all the basketball yesterday. Take that, LeBron.
Three overtimes. Darnell Brodie making passes between his legs. Tucker DeVries playing 54 minutes and fouling a man’s face with his face. Not a very good end to the game from DeVries, but a great first 40 minutes, and either way the Bulldogs outlasted a feisty UIC who’s made huge progress this year and could cause a hell of a lot of chaos in Arch Madness. (Imagine the Flames knocking all three of Bradley, Drake, and Indiana State into the NIT in direct succession.)
Am I saying this about UIC because I’ve only watched twenty minutes of UIC basketball this year and the commentators talked about Portillo’s which made me nostalgic for my Illinoisan youth? Yes. But they have gotten a lot better.
Sun Belt
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: James Madison, Appalachian State
They did it! JMU and App State both move into our sweet spot.
All this means is that if both JMU and App State manage to lose the Sun Belt tournament (3-in-10 possibility), they’ll both likely wind up in the NIT. They’ve won enough games. JMU’s was a little dicey last night—held off Georgia State on the road, while App State blitzed Old Dominion in Boone—but it was a win, and that was what they needed.
(It’s possible JMU should have been in the sweet spot the last two days, too. I think I was reading the list wrong. Let’s pretend they just needed to beat Georgia State on the road, though, and then let’s move on.)
WCC
- Too Hot: Gonzaga
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: San Francisco
Yet another fringe, fringe, fringe bubble team wiped off our slate here, as Saint Mary’s got pushed down over our guardrail and into the hellfires of the expected 68-team field. But that’s not the big story. The big story is toNITe’s Game of the NITe:
- Gonzaga “at” San Francisco
The scare quotes on “at” come from USF moving the game from War Memorial to the Chase Center, bowing to their WCC overlords by giving up home-court advantage while leaving it a road game for the Zags, and therefore a Q1 game for the Zags, and therefore probably a Q1 win for the Zags, who would really like a Q1 win because they’re perverts who don’t understand how fun it would be to play in the NIT. San Francisco? They’ll get more money if the Zags go to the field of 68. I think. I think those units get distributed by conference.
Alternative explanation: Maybe this is an act of spite from the Dons? Maybe the Dons know the NIT is beautiful and the other tournament isn’t and they’re trying to screw Gonzaga by giving them that final push up past the bubble? I like that explanation better, I think. Either way, this game might be rigged. Keep an eye out for this game to be rigged. Game of the NITe!
If Gonzaga loses, expect a lot of NIT talk. If San Francisco gets smoked, expect a little CBI talk. (Would be funny if this backfires and San Francisco becomes a Q2 win for the Zags. Would be a real shame!!!!)
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Boise State, Colorado State
- Too Cold: UNLV
- Just Right:
With the bubble movement, we also lose Nevada. Lot of “Too Hot” teams becoming, as their name implies, too hot for us to touch.
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
The NIT Frontiers, Where Intrepid Lone Warriors Battle for the Right to Hope
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: Samford
- Just Right:
Oh, Samford. What the hell was that?
If you weren’t using all three of your ESPN+ streams during the early timeslot yesterday, or if you were using them on other games (reasonable), Samford responded to clinching the SoCon outright by getting decimated at Wofford. 22-point loss. Annihilation. They’re still probably in the NIT if they lose the SoCon Tournament, but they’re working with a narrower window now, and any chances of a first round game in Birmingham are pretty much spent.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 18 teams (25 yesterday)
- Too cold – 13 teams (13 yesterday)
- Just right – 34 teams (32 yesterday)
The sweet spot has become too crowded. Someone’s gonna get bumped out. Who will it be? We’re going to need a whole lot of Games of the NITe to figure that part out. (We might need to make a fourth category soon.)
