This NIT Bubble Watch is for Wednesday, March 6th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
We would like to open today’s NIT Bubble Watch by paying our respects to Eastern Kentucky, the first regular season conference champion eliminated from their conference tournament. Had the Colonels won the ASUN but lost its tournament between 2006 and 2023, they would have gotten an automatic bid to the NIT. Instead, they’re out.
There is no part of us that doesn’t feel bad for EKU. Winning a league title only to lose the prize associated with it stinks. If we could draw up our perfect universe, regular season conference champions would receive NIT bids. Unfortunately, this universe is only perfect in someone else’s eyes. Our feelings about the NIT automatic bid situation are mixed. Some backstory:
NIT viewership these days is about what you’d expect. It’s not bad by any stretch, but the NIT is not raking in the eyeballs it would if everyone loved it as much as we do here at The Barking Crow. (It may be raking eyeballs from time to time, but it’s not raking them in.) We don’t have inside sources, but based on what public information we can find, we think the NIT generates a small amount of money for the NCAA each year, largely through its role in the ESPN deal the NCAA signs for championship broadcasts in most sports, a deal which includes the NIT. We don’t believe the NIT has the luxury of losing money. We don’t believe the NIT loses money. We’re concerned, though, that if the NIT lost all its power conference teams, it might lose money. We’re pretty confident that this would be the effect. Diehard college basketball fans like mid-major basketball, but mainstream sports fans like to watch teams they know. The latter outnumber the former.
Why this is relevant is that last summer, Fox Sports floated the idea of an NIT-like tournament of its own featuring only power conference teams. It wanted to sign deals with conferences requiring their best non-N*AA Tournament teams to play in the event. It didn’t seem very well thought-out (under the described criteria, Georgetown and DePaul might make it), but it got enough traction that news of it was publicized. A short while later, the NCAA announced its own rule changes: The automatic bids for regular season conference champions who don’t make the NCAA Tour*ament are gone. Replacing them are automatic bids for the top two teams in each Power Six conference who don’t make the NCAAT. From what we can tell, the NCAA went to the Power Six conferences and offered them a deal: Some benefits in exchange for their continued NIT participation.
We reacted very positively when this rule change was announced, and in hindsight, we were probably insensitive in some of our reactions. We were so excited about the NCAA finding a solution that would keep the NIT around for at least this year (hopefully more) that we spent more time talking about why the change was a good thing than about why the change was sad. I do still think this was reasonable within that moment. Somebody needed to operate in good faith. The NCAA is a popular punching bag in college sports media, and while it earned that status during the Mark Emmert years, those Emmert years are over, and the phenomenon’s reached the point now where a majority of media members—both legacy and blogosphere folks—react to anything the NCAA does with blind rage. They don’t consider what might be motivating the NCAA. They don’t consider the possibility the NCAA might not be an evil, faceless monster. They just react, competing to be the person with the strongest negative reaction to whatever the issue is. They’ve listened to enough Jay Bilas to know: Everything the NCAA does is evil and bad.
Of course, this neglects the fact that the NCAA is run by people, and that the NCAA is made up of its member schools. It neglects the fact that the NCAA, like all things college sports, only exists if it generates enough money to cover its expenses. The media reaction to the NIT automatic bid changes was a depressing mess of groupthink, disingenuous self-promotion, the race to be first, economic ignorance, and half a dozen other plagues from which modern media suffers. There was no critical examination of the issue, and with its impacts five months away, there was no natural accountability. People said a lot of things that weren’t remotely true, depicting the NCAA as that faceless monster who woke up one morning and decided to obliterate mid-major basketball. (Many of the people making this argument profess how much they do not care about the NIT, but we will let that angle be.) In reality? The people who run the NIT (not a glamorous job) were trying to keep the NIT profitable and keep the NIT around. We, as an NIT blog, loved the old system, but we prefer an imperfect NIT to no NIT at all. We will miss EKU. We will welcome whoever replaces them.
Who will that be? Well, elsewhere in reality, the change isn’t entirely bad for non-power conference basketball. It’s bad news for low-majors, but mid-majors aren’t in serious trouble from it. Princeton, James Madison, McNeese, South Florida, and Grand Canyon will still make the NIT if they miss the NCAAT. Yale, Loyola, UNLV, and Duquesne all have better chances as at-large bids than they would have had under last year’s system (more automatic bids were removed than were added, lowering the NIT at-large cut line). It’s going to cost some teams home games, and that will disproportionately affect mid-majors, and it’s costing low-majors NIT bids, but this is not dramatically altering the fabric of the NIT, and both positive and negative impacts exist for mid-major basketball.
The NCAA, under pressure from Fox Sports, got rid of a system that we think had only existed for 18 years, one we believe began when the NIT still had 40 teams. The results were bad for low-majors, good for high-majors, and a mixed bag for mid-majors. Also? It was never the NIT’s job to reward conference championships. That’s the job of conferences. I’m fine with conferences pursuing necessary profitability by holding single-elimination high-stakes conference tournaments. I get it. Conferences need money, and high-stakes single-elimination understandably sells. (The UNA/Lipscomb ending last night was a thrill.) But those giving conferences a pass while villainizing the NIT for following the same motives? They’re not treating college basketball fans with the respect you deserve.
Apologies for the diatribe. We understand some of you disagree with us, and to be very clear: We wish the old system still peacefully existed. But we think this was probably financially necessary for the NIT. It sucks, but this NIT won’t.
Let’s talk about something more fun now: The NIT Bubble. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture will be treated with respect but distance. Like a leper who is arguing about cost of living adjustments and making some excellent points.
ACC
- Too Hot: Virginia
- Too Cold: NC State, Miami (FL), Florida State
- Just Right: Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Wake up, Wake Forest. You’re in the sweet spot.
We’re still a little worried that Wake Forest (who lost last night on a last-second shot from Baye Ndongo last night in Winston-Salem) will play its way past us, possibly even winning the ACC Tournament. The ACC has a realistic shot at putting eight teams in the NIT. That’s a conference tournament Wake Forest can win. Still, we’re excited for the Deacs. They are currently the NIT favorites. They managed to beat Duke, spark the biggest court-storming controversy in history, reestablish Duke as a villain through that process, and then lose to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech in rapid succession. It feels like we’re getting a saboteur back from behind enemy lines. To be honest? We thought it was a suicide mission.
Elsewhere in the ACC, Florida State was the latest team to get smacked by Pitt, who is just hellbent on manipulating the NET. (“It’s not bragging if it’s true.” – ACC Network) We’re still not worried about the Panthers, but we probably said that around this time last year too. We’re very worried about Florida State. The odds I will ever shake Leonard Hamilton’s hand are dropping precipitously.
Clemson handled Syracuse, keeping the Orange with us. Poor Syracuse. Likeliest NIT team in the country right now, if you believe numbers, but almost no shot at winning it, again if you believe numbers. (“What is truth?” – Pontius Pilate)
This evening:
- Boston College at Miami (FL)
It’s very hard to see the loser of this game making the NIT. Also hard to see the winner making it, but the loser is in real rough shape. .500 overall, playing an ACC schedule? Sorry, guys. We’re not the ones who allowed Kenny Payne into media day.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Michigan State, Northwestern
- Too Cold: Rutgers, Indiana
- Just Right: Ohio State, Minnesota, Iowa, Maryland
It was a NITe off for the Big Ten, but they’re back in action in a few hours:
- Northwestern at Michigan State
- Indiana at Minnesota
Here’s how this is gonna work: Whoever loses the Northwestern/Michigan State game is going to become the focus of “Are they on the bubble?” discussion for the ensuing 21 hours. If Indiana wins the Minnesota game, I will watch Hoosiers through tears tonight while sending Mike Woodson thoughts on what he needs to do to beat Sparty on Sunday and get these beautiful boys into our tournament. (I love Goldy, and I’m not sure Minnesota can survive a home loss to IU, but in case I didn’t make it clear enough above, I’m a slut for the NIT getting attention. Don’t care if I get it myself, but dammit, I want people to care about the NIT.) Game of the NITe.
Big East
- Too Hot: St. John’s, Villanova
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, Providence, Xavier, Seton Hall
Were last night’s Big East contests letdown games? Not in the sense that DePaul or Georgetown stole a home win over St. John’s or Providence. But in the sense that they were letdowns, yes.
How the Big East plans to win back our love:
- Villanova at Seton Hall
- Xavier at Butler
The uninformed will tell you that the Villanova comeback started a few weeks ago, when they began winning games. Us? The bearers of truth? We want you to know it starts tonight. If Villanova can lose this game, they’re alive. Similar stakes for Seton Hall, but they’ve got a big head start.
Butler hosts Xavier in a possible NIT quarterfinal or NIT semifinal or NIT championship preview (I’m tingling), and it’s possible Xavier needs this win to make the field. They’ve got Marquette at home on Saturday, and while I think Tyler Kolek’s midriff will still be rent, I would not count on beating Marquette if I were Xavier. So, Butler can knock out a challenger for the throne and get themselves into contender mode, all at once. (If Xavier finishes below .500 they’ve still got a decent shot at an automatic bid. Because the NCAA hates mid-majors, like whoever that mid-major was who went through Texas in 2004 and taught everyone how to pronounce the word “Xavier.”)
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF
I was moved by the ending of Cincinnati/Oklahoma, and not only because Fran Fraschilla was calling a game featuring Le’Tre Darthard and Aziz Bandaogo as the universe crafted a stirring reunion of the second 2023 NIT semifinal. I was moved because the chips were down, and Cincinnati and Oklahoma’s NIT dreams were both on the table, and neither team made a field goal in the last 1:53 of overtime, leaving Cincinnati taking the loss they needed to assert themselves as a serious NIT title threat. Seminal stuff.
Elsewhere, K-State lost dutifully to KU. If KU really cared about court-storming safety, they’d have sent their fans after Jerome Tang to prove how dangerous it is. Makes you think.
The Wednesday slate:
- Houston at UCF
- TCU at West Virginia
There’s still some risk that UCF will miss the NIT, either by falling past K-State in the NET rankings or through TCU or Oklahoma falling into the NIT’s waiting arms. Those last two aren’t particularly likely, but if Houston burns the city of Orlando to the ground tonight, leaving wailing children wearing the ashes of Mickey Mouse Ears while UCF’s board of trustees blasts off to the colony that awaits them on Mars? That could make UCF fall past K-State in the NET rankings.
So, better for UCF to keep it close tonight. Or to win. Man, what if they won, and then they won the NIT, and Houston won the other tournament? It’d be fun to say that the NIT champion beat the NCA* Tournament champion.
Speaking of teams who beat Houston: We think our computers are too pessimistic about TCU (there are reasons we think this, but I’m supposed to be the fun guy, so I’m only allowed to link to them). But! Similarly to the Northwestern/Michigan State loser, we’re gonna be yelling “OOOH I DON’T KNOW JIM” about TCU and the bubble if they lose in Morgantown tonight. And they might lose in Morgantown tonight.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Duquesne, VCU, UMass
- Just Right: Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Loyola (IL)
“Will the NIT selection committee consider Max Shulga’s injury?”
This is suddenly the most pressing question around the NIT bubble.
Very bad loss for VCU, correspondingly very good win for Duquesne. The Duquesne train hasn’t reached the station just yet, but it’s saying “chugga chugga choo choo,” and so are we.
Get your ESPN+ ready:
- Loyola (IL) at Davidson
- St. Bonaventure at George Washington
- Saint Joe’s at Richmond
- Fordham at UMass
We currently have the A-10 likeliest to become a 4-bid league, with 2 and 3 and 5 also reasonable possibilities. How would it become a 0-bid league? I think you can guess which way these four games would have to go.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU
South Florida just keeps winning. They’re more safely an NIT team than they were yesterday at this hour. What happened to Tulane??
More ESPN+ (this is the part that makes it better than normal ESPN, as the + implies):
- East Carolina at SMU
- FAU at North Texas
We are issuing a Pirate warning for SMU. ECU’s coming for that booty, and if you let them have it, then all those things your youth group leaders told you would happen are going to come true. Assuming your youth group leaders told you that if you lose to ECU you will stand a greater chance of missing the NIT.
FAU’s in Denton, and I just realized I’m wearing a Super Pit shirt. I hope, for all parties, that the thing I want to happen happens. Would get both these guys back in the NIT periphery. (Put FAU on “OOOH I DON’T KNOW JIM” watch, maestro.)
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington, Utah
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
Nobody played last night but that doesn’t mean Utah’s NIT chances didn’t get better thanks to happenings eeeeeeeelsewheeeeeere!
SEC
- Too Hot: Mississippi State
- Too Cold: Georgia
- Just Right: Mississippi, LSU, Texas A&M
Georgia’s NIT chances aren’t worse because they lost to Mississippi, but they also aren’t good or anything. (Mississippi is real close to an NIT lock.)
Down South:
- LSU at Arkansas
- Mississippi State at Texas A&M
Texas A&M’s almost across the finish line, but they still need probably two more losses. One this week, one next week. Mississippi State has some comeback hopes but they aren’t good.
LSU? They could use a road win over Arkansas. That’d be pretty good for a team trying to make the NIT from below.
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley, Drake
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Boise State, Colorado State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: UNLV
Goodbye, Nevada. Our Steve Alford Hinkle dream will not be coming true. Boise State? Welcome back to the land of hope. UNLV? Please keep making the most of this opportunity. We want this for you. We harbor no grudge for you failing to make last year’s NIT Final Four. How could we? Making the NIT Final Four is a difficult thing to do, and while kind of hosting might help you once you’re there, it sure doesn’t help you get there.
Big one here in the late-night hours (probably not a big one but if it’s big it will be huge):
- Fresno State at New Mexico
Only one Pitino head coach has ever won an NIT.
Sun Belt
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: James Madison, Appalachian State
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
WCC
- Too Hot: Saint Mary’s
- Too Cold: San Francisco
- Just Right:
NIT Outlaws (these are the teams from conferences with only one NIT contender)
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: Samford, UC Irvine
- Just Right:
One to note here:
- New Orleans at McNeese
Regular season finale for the Cowboys. Not sure they need it but probably best to win.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 17 teams (20 yesterday)
- Too cold – 14 teams (15 yesterday)
- Just right – 33 teams (31 yesterday)
33 teams, 32 spots, 31 more teams trying to work their way in. The club is poppin’.
