Quick note: We’re publishing this after the Seton Hall/UConn game begins. So, it doesn’t account for however that turns out. Happy Sunday, NIT fans.
Welcome to NIT Bubble Watch, our latest look at the NIT bubble picture. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture will be treated as one plucky but unlucky assortment of NIT frailty, down at the bottom.
This NIT Bubble Watch is for Sunday, March 3rd. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
ACC
- Too Hot: Wake Forest, Virginia
- Too Cold: Florida State, Miami (FL)
- Just Right: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, NC State
Boston College needed to beat Pitt, and they didn’t do anything resembling that in any way, and so they drop below even the Too Cold territory. Nobody else moves categories, but: FSU drops from the bubble to not the bubble after giving Georgia Tech consecutive wins; Wake and UVA made moves by playing badly; and Pitt’s theoretically in danger of missing the NIT on the high side after beating Boston College by a zillion, but Jeff Capel still scheduled whom Jeff Capel scheduled in nonconference play and the NCAA T*urnament selection committee cares about that.
Nice win by Virginia Tech; should help with seeding. Nice non-loss by Syracuse; should also help with seeding. NC State? We would have preferred you won, but that’s mostly personal. Still on the bubble.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Michigan State, Nebraska
- Too Cold: Rutgers, Indiana
- Just Right: Ohio State, Maryland, Minnesota, Iowa
That was a big comeback for Minnesota. Devastating stuff for Penn State, but the Gophers really needed that one. They’re in much more comfortable position than they occupied a day ago. Not pretty, but it didn’t have to be. I mean, we love Penn State, but…
Iowa didn’t need to win a road game against Northwestern, but we aren’t worried about them yet. Circle back if they beat Illinois. Which they might. Hopefully Fran McCaffery and Brad Underwood box each other on Sunday. What a national regular season finale that would be.
Michigan State’s intriguing, but we aren’t getting excited about them yet. Hanging with Purdue? That’s not NIT behavior! No matter how weird Purdue Pete looks when he doesn’t wear tights under his basketball shorts! That said, Sparty’s good enough that they’re likelier to win the NIT than Minnesota is, if you trust computers. (I try to trust just about everything. Especially on the internet.)
Today:
- Indiana at Maryland
- Michigan at Ohio State
- Rutgers at Nebraska
Oh wow. I…I don’t know what to say. This must be what that Troy guy felt like when he first laid eyes on Helen.
Nebraska is still alive, and whoa boy would this make them alive-r. Ditto Rutgers! We love when everyone’s cheering for the same thing.
In the other two, Indiana and Maryland might play the saddest game of the day, which is always an honor, and last but not least, it would be very, very funny if Ohio State lost to Michigan. (Michigan’s likelier to make the NCA* Tournament than the NIT, by the way. Because standards.)
Big East
- Too Hot: St. John’s, Villanova
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, Providence, Xavier, Seton Hall
Credit to Providence for wanting the NIT badder than anybody yesterday. Sometimes, you have to no-show in a huge moment and disappoint those loyal to you. Whether it’s against Villanova on the defensive three-point line or your child’s dance recital, you know what’s best for those in your care. Well done, Friars.
Xavier survived Georgetown thanks to Des Claude, which was essential, and Xavier isn’t in a position where anyone will ask too many questions so long as they can win one of these next two games. (They’re also in that mix for an automatic bid, even if they lose both.) Something I love about Sean Miller’s team is that they have two prolific scorers and a very mediocre offense. That is not an easy balance to strike.
Butler walloped DePaul, which is good. Butler’s toeing the line on getting a home game.
Today:
- Seton Hall at UConn
Last stand for the Pirates. If they lose, they’re still a possibility. If they win, they probably have to walk the plank.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: UMass, Duquesne
- Just Right: Richmond, St. Bonaventure, VCU, Loyola (IL)
The revolution will be televised on USA Network.
Loyola got enough help to sneak across 50%. Among teams who actually played: Richmond looks pretty safe (helps to have a King), VCU didn’t increase their own danger (road loss), UMass tore Davidson’s head off with second chances to stay alive (Frank Martin footprint), and Duquesne chased George Mason off our lawn.
To be fair, it was a slow chase. Like when someone’s mooning someone else and then the moon-ee starts chasing the moon-er, but the mooner’s pants are around their ankles and the moonee is carrying their groceries and has nowhere convenient to set them down. This is Atlantic 10 basketball.
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Kansas State, Cincinnati, UCF
After missing good opportunities yesterday (Oklahoma’s in more devastating fashion than TCU’s), the Sooners and the Frogs are both one loss away from everyone realizing how close to the bubble they are. Who knows what happens from there.
In main character land, our guy Coach Mac got Texas Tech a road win over West Virginia to keep our gnashing teeth at a distance; Simas Lukosius delivered the latest K-State heartbreak, keeping us firmly in possession of our guy Tylor Perry without significantly jeopardizing Cincinnati’s own NIT hopes; and UCF doesn’t have a close North Texas tie I’m aware of, but they didn’t score any points between the moment the clock hit 5:08 and the moment the clock was stopped at 0:16. That’s why they lost. They didn’t score enough points. Common thing that happens when you play Iowa State.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU
Big weekend in the AAC, and it isn’t over yet.
First: SMU got Meeped by PJ Carter and Jordan Ivy-Curry, which might get SMU to play on the road in the NIT’s first round.
Second: South Florida bullied Charlotte in North Carolina, and of all the things the Bulls have accomplished, this was the one which made South Florida gain our respect.
Third: FAU pulled away from Tulane, then made it just interesting enough at the end for us to care.
Today, we have:
- UAB at Memphis
Memphis has righted the ship lately, playing good enough ball to be an AAC Tournament sleeper. But if I know Penny Hardaway’s program (and I should, they won the national championship in 2021), there’s always another trick up the sleeve.
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Utah, Colorado
- Too Cold: USC
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
Automatic biiiiiiiiids!
The deal with today’s bracketology is this: Washington’s not in good shape for an NIT at-large bid. But! If Utah and Colorado both miss the NIT, Washington will get an automatic bid pretty much by default. Unless USC takes it, which is possible, because USC beat Washington yesterday in Seattle. Is USC what we thought UCLA was? Could we still get Bronny James in the NIT?
The issue here is that our model’s probably too high on Utah and Colorado’s chances of eluding us. Our model underestimates our grip strength! We aren’t carrying groceries! But, Utah did smoke Cal yesterday evening, which isn’t exactly the NIT push we want.
ToNITe:
- Stanford at Colorado
Colorado could do a lot for their NIT dreams here. Let’s see if Coach Prime has the fellas ready to play.
SEC
- Too Hot: Mississippi State
- Too Cold: Georgia
- Just Right: Mississippi, LSU, Texas A&M
The issue we have with the NCAA T*urnament, among others, is that it’s going to take 68 teams, continuing its existence. With Texas A&M no longer on a depressing losing streak, there’s a chance one of those teams could be Texas A&M. It’s like the Vietnam War. Somebody has to do it.
Georgia was the loser to Texas A&M’s winner, pushing the Dawgs to the edge of relevance. LSU had no problem with Vandy, pushing the Tigers to the edge of getting an at-large bid. Mississippi held off Mizzou, which doesn’t do much to their chances. Mississippi State grabbed the expected loss at Auburn, which keeps the Bulldogs alive.
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley, Drake
Well would you look at this:
- Bradley at Drake
Bradley’s the team with something to gain here, but both these guys are in really good positions to make the NIT if they can lose during Arch Madness. If they win? Well, they’ll get mad. That’s why they call it Arch Madness.
Personally, I’m excited for this game because I’m trying to figure out whether I like Tucker DeVries. It’s an important study.
Sun Belt
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: James Madison, Appalachian State
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Nevada, Boise State
- Too Cold: UNLV
- Just Right:
Boise State handled New Mexico, which made some people point and say, “Hey look! Richard Pitino’s losing games again!” Even though all season people have given Mountain West teams a pass for not winning on the road.
In happier MWC news, the ripple effect has let Nevada back into our mix. It’s a sliver of a possibility, but sliver is only one letter off from silver, and Nevada is the Silver State, after all.
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
Yale probably won’t make the NIT, because they’ll either win the Ivy League Tournament (and miss the NIT) or lose the Ivy League Tournament (in what might be a bad loss, something which would remove them from the NIT). They need to get to Princeton in the Ivy League championship, and they might need a close game, and even then they need help. Credit to the Bulldogs for beating Harvard. That was the first step.
Cornell? Similar story, but way more help is needed. I wouldn’t be able to stop a late Caden Pierce run either, but it’s something Cornell needed to (and didn’t) do.
WCC
- Too Hot: Saint Mary’s
- Too Cold: San Francisco
- Just Right:
Remember when Gonzaga was in the NIT picture?
Saint Mary’s! Similarly to TCU and Oklahoma, the Gaels are a team one loss away from everyone noticing what’s on their team sheet. What’s Saint Mary’s hiding? Well, they did lose to Missouri State in the nonconference. What a ruse!
Speaking of ruses, San Francisco played themselves, losing at Santa Clara in one that’s looking like the NIT death knell. The Dons have a chance thanks to the ladder bracket, but their collapse has left them on the outside looking in. In maybe even worse news, they lost our respect this week through the Chase Center debacle. Some programs can do without our respect. San Francisco? Not sure if they’re one of those programs.
The NIT Frontiers, Where UC Irvine Comes and Goes Like a Piece of Litter on the Disneyland Breeze
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: Samford, UC Irvine
- Just Right:
Hey, UC Irvine’s back!
Grand Canyon chopped down Stephen F. Austin. McNeese took command of Nicholls. UC Irvine swept Long Beach State away. Samford? Well, they did pull away from The Citadel late. But we still aren’t sure if Samford realizes they’re on the NIT bubble. Not sure how, since that should be all any college basketball team is thinking about, but clearly, we have work to do.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 20 teams (19 yesterday)
- Too cold – 14 teams (13 yesterday)
- Just right – 32 teams (34 yesterday)
Now. To go see what’s been happening in this Seton Hall game.
*looks*
Ok. Well, didn’t miss anything there.
We’ll be on time tomorrow.
Assuming the games don’t start until 5 or 6.
