In the history of this planet, the Loyola Ramblers have made three NIT Final Fours.
Is this the fourth?
Is this the final?
We’ve got a big day ahead. Welcome to NIT Bubble Watch, our latest look at the NIT bubble picture. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture will be treated as one defiant but doomed unit of NIT frailty, down at the bottom.
This NIT Bubble Watch is for Saturday, March 2nd. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
ACC
- Too Hot: Wake Forest, Virginia
- Too Cold: Florida State, Miami (FL), Boston College
- Just Right: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, NC State
Loyola’s win over Dayton puts Florida State in just dangerous enough of terrain that they’re Too Cold today. Thankfully, the Seminoles will have plenty of opportunities to prove they are hot enough. Today’s FSU opportunity, and the rest of the ACC action:
- Florida State at Georgia Tech
- NC State at North Carolina
- Wake Forest at Virginia Tech
- Virginia at Duke
- Pitt at Boston College
- Syracuse at Louisville
Yes, friends, every ACC game but one holds NIT impact today. As pretty much always, the Too Cold teams want to win and the Too Hot teams want to lose. In between? We’d recommend Pitt and Syracuse win, for the sake of seeding, we’d recommend NC State win, for the sake of not becoming Too Cold (they’re on the cusp), and we’d recommend Virginia Tech win, just to make sure they don’t accidentally fall past the field.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Nebraska, Michigan State
- Too Cold: Rutgers, Indiana
- Just Right: Ohio State, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota
On Big Ten Network (and FOX!):
- Penn State at Minnesota
- Iowa at Northwestern
- Michigan State at Purdue
If Penn State wins this, they’re back into realistic possibility while Minnesota probably falls out of the projected bracket. If Iowa wins this, they’re starting to get into dangerous territory while Northwestern’s body gives the slightest pulse. If Michigan State wins this, we bid that dream farewell, once and for all.
Big East
- Too Hot: St. John’s, Villanova
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence
The Big East:
- Villanova at Providence
- Butler at DePaul
- Xavier at Georgetown
Xavier likely cannot afford to lose. Butler shouldn’t make us find out if they can afford to lose or not. Villanova and Providence? The narrative is going to be that this is a temporary NIT play-out game, and that narrative might turn out to be correct. Loser comes with us. (This is the scene in the movie where we confidently walk away but inside we’re insecure and worried that neither of the two will show up at our side.)
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF
Every now and then, I remember that Big 12 Network is still merely ESPN+, and I ponder whether Brett Yormark might be a silly little man. The games:
- Iowa State at UCF
- Texas Tech at West Virginia
- Kansas State at Cincinnati
- Houston at Oklahoma
- TCU at BYU
Yeah, there’s some danger of K-State missing the NIT field. But that goes in both directions. Given the NIT committee doesn’t triple-count Q1 wins like the other committee does (they’re baked into your ratings, then they seem to get considered in two or more other niche ways), we’d say K-State should try to lose a very close game. But there is mystery with the NIT. That’s how it goes with the great spiritual gifts.
Cincinnati? Ehh. This probably doesn’t move the needle. Maybe lose? I don’t know. Mysterious again, but with less weight.
UCF wouldn’t be sunk by any means with a home loss to Iowa State. Might help their case, might help their seeding. Texas Tech could further vitalize this late push of theirs if they were to lose in Morgantown. TCU and Oklahoma just need to survive today without great wins. Sit on your hands, guys. Go to bed early. Whatever it takes.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Loyola (IL), UMass, George Mason, Duquesne
- Just Right: Richmond, St. Bonaventure, VCU
Gentile Arena was everything good and wonderful about college basketball last night, right down to the little man with little professional basketball future hitting the big corner three to take down Dayton. Is Braden Norris too old to be in college? Is Dayton a lot worse when Javon Bennett misses a whole half and Kobe Elvis has to play point guard? I don’t really care. This is the NIT, guys. Loyola got it done, and they are knocking on our door. Very, very close to Just Right. But Goldilocks didn’t let up easy when it came to her porridge reviews.
The Saturday games:
- Duquesne at George Mason
- UMass at Davidson
- VCU at Richmond
VCU and Richmond have a better name for their rivalry than Capital City Classic, right? That’s just the legal name? Please? Anyway, the loser’s at a little bit of risk of missing the NIT, especially if it’s a blowout. Duquesne/GMU loser? That one’s at big risk of missing the NIT. UMass/Davidson loser? Again, at big risk. Especially if it’s Davidson. They aren’t even in the picture right now.
(UMass can move closer with a win, the Duquesne/GMU winner will move a bit closer, I’m ready for a 5-bid A-10 if you guys are.)
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington, Utah
On the coast (and in two other places not very near the coast):
- Oregon at Arizona
- USC at Washington
- Cal at Utah
Utah’s in a spot where a really bad loss could almost lock them in, and this Cal possibility is real enough to ask whether that’s the card the Utes might play. Washington and Oregon need to just not do anything stupid.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, SMU, South Florida
Hoot hoot (and other avian verbiage):
- Tulane at Florida Atlantic
- UTSA at SMU
- South Florida at Charlotte
Would be a real shame if Tulane were to figure it out again exactly right now.
SMU’s not in a shaky place, but still probably wise to just win this. (Although an unconvincing win…oh boy. That would be the stuff.) South Florida’s in more danger of missing the NIT low than high. This may soon be a Talking Point.
SEC
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Georgia, Mississippi State
- Just Right: Mississippi, Texas A&M, LSU
Hey look! Mississippi State crept back in! Not sure how or why, but they wiggled back across five percent.
The SEC’s Saturday:
- LSU at Vanderbilt
- Mississippi State at Auburn
- Texas A&M at Georgia
- Mississippi at Missouri
Hey…hey…HEY! Vanderbilt! Stop it right now. Put down the gun. LSU’s been banged up! Let them have their chance!
Mississippi State, of course, should not win. Mississippi can probably do whatever the hell it wants but might prefer victory, only for NIT purposes of course. Georgia’s got a good opportunity to gain ground, and in that act could also become the climax of a thrilling Texas A&M comeback. Cue the barking.
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley, Drake
Sun Belt
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: James Madison, Appalachian State
App State ran away from Troy, JMU withstood that Coastal Carolina rally, and the Sun Belt Tournament field is set. The Mountaineers and the Dukes start next Saturday, holding byes through the first two rounds. More likely than not, we only get one of these guys, but you never really know with the Sun. Solar flares, ever heard of them? I do think App State probably needs to at least win one more game. We’ll know more when next Saturday gets here.
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Boise State
- Too Cold: UNLV
- Just Right:
Colorado State has slipped from our grasp (that ripple might have something to do with Mississippi State’s return), so we won’t talk about them hosting Wyoming as suspiciously large favorites in that rivalry game. Instead:
- New Mexico at Boise State
- San Jose State at UNLV
The Rebels need a win. The Broncos could use a loss. The Lobos…might be doing this?
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
Penn gave Cornell a test in the Palestra, but the Big Red survived it, while Princeton and Yale rolled through Columbia and Dartmouth. Tonight:
- Cornell at Princeton
- Harvard at Yale
It’s possible this is make or break for Cornell. Two games left in league play, title on the line, Big Red are very much on the outside looking in as far as the NIT goes, based on what we know. In business, this might result in Cornell’s father swooping in to guide them through the sticky situation. The NIT isn’t business, though. It’s much more serious than that.
(Princeton’s playing for seeding; Yale is also on the bubble and could play Harvard out of the Ivy League Tournament, which I’m hoping is something Yale would enjoy.)
WCC
- Too Hot: Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: San Francisco
Whoa! Saint Mary’s! Hello there. Guess Gonzaga’s win looked a little bigger to our model on the second pass. What’s happening:
- San Francisco at Santa Clara
- Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s
The Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s loser is alive, we believe, though the path will likely remain narrow and hypothetical and even in its best case probably uncertain leading up to March 17th. San Francisco might need to win this game. They’re sliding dangerously close to the CBI’s glorious but hostile domain.
The NIT Frontiers, Where the Air Is Thick but the Faithful Soldier On
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: Samford
- Just Right:
UC Irvine was a mirage. They’re back out. Was a fun little moment, though.
Today’s stuff:
- The Citadel at Samford
- Stephen F. Austin at Grand Canyon
- Nicholls at McNeese
Wins wouldn’t hurt Grand Canyon and McNeese. They’re Too Hot, but the loss needs to happen later. A loss would really hurt Samford.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 18 teams (18 yesterday)
- Too cold – 15 teams (14 yesterday)
- Just right – 33 teams (34 yesterday)
66 teams. 39 Saturday games. One persistent resounding strain of admiration for the National Invitation Tournament.
