We’re not calling anyone an NIT lock this year unless we hear it straight from both parties. This is new. In the past, when teams became 100% likely to receive an NIT invitation, we called them locks. This involved a lot of hubbub. We threw a party. We wrote an ode. We flew to their campuses and shattered champagne bottles on their arena doors.
Then, two years ago, UNC opted out, possibly because their players hated each other. Then, last year, more teams opted out, probably because the transfer portal opened the day after Selection Sunday. Now, we don’t know what to expect. The transfer portal opens a week later, and everyone keeps having a good laugh at UNC’s expense, but the transfer portal still opens during the NIT and those chodes over at Fox Sports are sure showing a lot of commercials for a tournament that’s effectively the Vegas 16 minus the Vegas 16’s charm.
So, we’re not giving anyone the lock treatment until they prove they’re a lock. Locks are an honor. You’ve got to earn them.
This is a little sad. The locks were fun. Hopefully by next March, peace has arrived and we can enjoy our lock festivities with newfound appreciation. For now, though, we have to wait for teams to say yes. I think this is ok. Here’s why:
Once, in a dream that felt very real and perhaps was real and perhaps this is the dream, I was walking the Hindu Kush, except in the dream (or perhaps the reality) the Hindu Kush was named the Khmer Rouge. I don’t know why my subconscious gets a mountain range confused with a genocidal Cambodian regime, but here we are.
I was looking for athletes, fittingly enough, for a game that involved grabbing baby goats by their ankles and swinging them around, trying to hit a ball through the legs of grazing adults. (Adult goats, I mean.) I had but one goat to my name, and his name was Cheese, and Cheese was either a teenager or had something a little bit wrong with him because he was too big to swing and too small to graze/play goalie. Were I taller or were Cheese taller, we would have met the requirements. As it was? We were lost for ideas, Cheese and I, alone and in need of 19 more goats. I ate a sandwich. Cheese watched.
As I ate my sandwich, there in the Hindu Kush but this was a dream so it was named the Khmer Rouge, a man walked up with 43 goats, all led on a single, long leash. On their sides, the goats were numbered, 1 to 43. The man smiled at Cheese and me.
“Do you play (the game with the goats)?”
I raised my shoulders, prepared to say I was trying but that I lacked the goats. He stopped me before I could release the words.
“You play (the game with the goats). Here. Let me tell you a story.”
I don’t know whether “story” means something different in the dream universe or if this guy’s English just sucked, but he did not tell me a story. Instead, he pointed to his goats.
“These guys? Dumb as rocks. They are lemming goats. Follow each other everywhere, never give it a second thought. I picked them. They are mine. Big deal. We mean nothing to each other. Your goat?” At this point, he pointed at Cheese, who was rocking like a chair at a restaurant which can’t put all four feet down at once. “Your goat is a smart goat. See how he totters, there without his leash. But he does not leave! He chooses you.”
I must have looked puzzled, because the man continued.
“It is always better to be invited than to be selected. We all know this.”
He went on.
“Sometimes, my best friend, it is better to be chosen than to choose.”
Welcome to Santa Clara, Bradley, and Chattanooga. Your invitations are on their way. We’d love to see you in our favorite tournament.
NIT Bubble Watch works like other Bubble Watches except it’s better, focused on the right side of history. Here are the categories.
- Just Right: >50% NIT chance, per Joe Stunardi’s model
- Too Hot: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NCAA T*urnament
- Too Cold: <50% NIT chance, aimed below NIT
- It’s Complicated: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NIT but the College Basketball Crown is burdening their efforts
- Locked Out of Heaven: 0% NIT chance, too low
- Locked Into Hell: 0% NIT chance, going to the NCAA T*urnament
The only other things to know are that if a team is bolded, that means that team moved across categories after yesterday’s action; and if a team is in all caps, that means we expect them to receive an NIT invitation and we would, in the old world (and come again it shall), call them NIT locks.
Today’s date is Monday, March 10th. For the most current NIT Bubble Watch, click here.
Big Ten: Nebraska Lives
- Too Hot: Indiana, Ohio State
- Too Cold: Washington
- Just Right: Rutgers, USC
- It’s Complicated: Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers
- Locked Into Hell: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
If, yesterday morning, you’d asked us to draw up our ideal universe, well, let’s just say I would have forgotten to solve world hunger. It’s NIT season! I would have wanted some outcome which gave NIT friend Fran McCaffery at least another year at Iowa and both Nebraska and Iowa in this year’s NIT.
It might be happening.
With the Hawkeyes’ win in Lincoln, Nebraska successfully thwarted the NCAA T*urnament, leaving only the pitiful College Basketball Crown between Fred Hoiberg’s men and an NIT 1-seed. It isn’t likely, but there’s a path, and coincidentally? That path is the same one that gives Fran McCaffery bigger support in Iowa City. We want Iowa to beat Ohio State on Wednesday. That is the current leader for Game of the NITe of the Week.
Elsewhere in Robbie Hummel’s America, Dylan Harper made three more shots than Dawson Garcia (all free throws), and Rutgers pushed its way a little bit further into the NIT picture. Imagine it yet again: Harper and Ace Bailey in the NIT.
(USC also moved up a little bit. Lot of little movements across categories from teams who didn’t play. We’re going to turn down the degree on our model’s NET updates. Think it’s overreacting.)
WCC: Pepperdine Made Another Wave
- Too Hot: Gonzaga
- Too Cold: Oregon State
- Just Right: San Francisco, SANTA CLARA
- Locked Out of Heaven: Washington State, everybody else besides Saint Mary’s
- Locked Into Hell: Saint Mary’s
If the most prominent American wildfires in Moe Odum’s lifetime couldn’t stop Pepperdine, I don’t know why we expected Santa Clara to do it. The Broncos gave it their best shot, but Odum was not just a wave. He was a tsunami. Which reminds me: Back in January, how the hell did nobody suggest nuking the Pacific Ocean in order to trigger a wildfire-drenching tsunami? Whole damn country, asleep at the wheel.
Santa Clara is getting an NIT invite. They’ve earned it.
Washington State lost to San Francisco, and with that, the Cougs are done. They died as they lived: Sloppily, while instigating conflict.
Missouri Valley: Land of the Braves
- Too Cold: Northern Iowa
- Just Right: BRADLEY
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Drake
- Locked Into Hell: Drake
Now that Drake’s not making the NIT, I think I can say it: I’m glad we’re getting Bradley. Drake’s a great team. Don’t get me wrong. And I am very pro-violence on the field of play. But would you rather spend your second round NIT Saturday watching Tavion Banks remove another man’s kneecap for a rebound or watching that sweet, sweet Duke Deen jumper? The guy floats when he shoots. He wings out his legs like a flying squirrel.
Welcome back, Bradley. It’s good to have you here.
The American: Disaster Strikes UAB
- Too Cold: Florida Atlantic, UAB
- Just Right: North Texas
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else, including Wichita State
- Locked Into Hell: Memphis
All three of North Texas, UAB, and Wichita State got beat yesterday, and for all three of them, it was pretty bad. They either lost to a bad team, lost at home, or lost badly. In Wichita State’s case, they kind of did all three.
The at-large chance is most likely gone for UAB, who’s now in a duel with FAU to pick up the AAC’s exempt bid if North Texas wins the AAC Tournament. I know, guys. I’m sad too.
One-Bid Leagues: The Triad Duel That Wasn’t, the Chattanooga That Was
- Too Hot: McNeese, Yale
- Too Cold: Arkansas State, UNC Wilmington
- Just Right: Akron, CHATTANOOGA, Northern Colorado
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else in the whole darn country
- Locked Into Hell: High Point, Lipscomb, Omaha, SIU-Edwardsville
In North Carolina, there’s the triangle and there’s the triad. The triangle is Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill. The triad is Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and High Point. We’ve been looking forward to a triad showdown between Wake Forest and High Point. Alas.
Elsewhere, no reunion with our good friend Lipscomb. Condolences to the Bisons.
Thankfully, we got Chattanooga. The Mocs will rocks your socks, as they say. Don’t let anyone tell you the NIT doesn’t have honor. Not this year. We’ve got Honor Huff.
ACC
- Too Cold: Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia
- Just Right: Florida State, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Wake Forest
- Locked Out of Heaven: Boston College, Cal, Miami (FL), NC State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
- Locked Into Hell: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
SEC
- Too Hot: Arkansas, Georgia, Vanderbilt
- Just Right: LSU, South Carolina, Texas
- Locked Into Hell: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot: VCU
- Too Cold: George Washington, Loyola Chicago, Saint Louis
- Just Right: Dayton, George Mason, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Utah State
- Too Cold: Nevada, UNLV
- Just Right: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Big 12
- Too Cold: Colorado
- Just Right: UCF, TCU
- It’s Complicated: Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah
- Locked Out of Heaven:
- Locked Into Hell: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Big West
- Too Hot: UC San Diego
- Too Cold: Cal State-Northridge
- Just Right: UC Irvine
Big East
- Too Cold: DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall
- Just Right: Georgetown
- It’s Complicated: Butler, Villanova, Xavier
- Locked Into Hell: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
Conference USA
- Too Cold: Middle Tennessee
- Just Right: Liberty
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
WAC
- Too Cold: Grand Canyon
- Just Right: Utah Valley
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
**
