“We have to continually be jumping off cliffs and developing our wings on the way down.” – Often misattributed to Indianapolis hero Kurt Vonnegut
The cliffs? Basketball games. The wings? The NIT. The way down? Well, sometimes it can be a way up, because while some teams might need wins to make the NIT, others need to lose. Welcome to NIT Bubble Watch, you blessed few.
As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture will be treated as a properly attributed but uninspiring coagulation of NIT frailty, down at the bottom.
This NIT Bubble Watch is for Monday, March 4th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
Note from Joe: We try to publicize this a lot, but in case we haven’t made it clear, our model sometimes wiggles a little in its second day of reaction to results, thanks to the updated NET numbers and a few others (our proxies for those systems are serviceable, but not ideal). So, there’s some movement in here from yesterday to today. We call this The Ripple Effect.
ACC
- Too Hot: Wake Forest, Virginia
- Too Cold: NC State, Florida State, Miami (FL), Boston College
- Just Right: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse
With other bubble movement and a little Ripple Effect, NC State slides down into Too Cold and Boston College bumps back up into Too Cold. It’s marginal on both, just as it’s marginal on whether Wake Forest is Too Hot. It’s all marginal. This works, because if I understand its coaches and fans, the ACC is a marginalized conference trying to wriggle out an existence under the crushing thumb of the Big Ten, the SEC, and the evil genius that is the Big 12. Nothing screams “I am being oppressed” like Duke basketball or Clemson football.
Games tonight:
- Duke at NC State
NC State doesn’t necessarily need to win this. Even a close loss would be helpful to their case, because the NIT committee tends to care a little more about “good” than “deserving” in the good/deserving breakdown, relative to the other committee. In other words, if NC State simply plays well, good things will happen for NC State. I am told I should not call this “playing well” and that it is in fact “manipulating the NET.”
(There are only two NIT-impacting games in the entire country this evening. The other includes Houston Christian. Therefore, this one is the Game of the NITe.)
Big East
- Too Hot: St. John’s, Villanova
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, Providence, Xavier, Seton Hall
Seton Hall has been toeing that bubble line, and yesterday was an opportunity for them to leave no doubt. They went into Storrs (I don’t think I like teams having multiple home courts, by the way), and had they won, their NIT dreams would have been flatter than a rat on the turnpike off-ramp.
Seton Hall lost the game by thirty points.
Not dead yet. (*that emoji where the air is shooting out of the nostrils*)
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Northwestern, Michigan State
- Too Cold: Indiana, Rutgers
- Just Right: Ohio State, Minnesota, Iowa, Maryland
When Mackenzie Mgbako got arrested for refusing to leave the Taco Bell Drive Through (still unsure why that’s a crime, haters), I was under the impression he would be a bigger story this college basketball season. This impression was incorrect. Or so I thought, when I woke up yesterday morning. (*cue inspirational music*)
At halftime yesterday, Indiana trailed Maryland by ten points. Two minutes and nine seconds later, that lead had spread to 16. Then, Mackenzie Mgbako started scoring.
Over the next twelve minutes, Mgbako poured in 16 points all by himself. When he stopped, the Hoosiers were ahead, and it was a lead they wouldn’t lose.
(*you can cut the inspirational music now*)
Mgbako’s run created dueling NIT effects. Indiana? Relevant, at the very least. Maryland? Suddenly in a whole lot of danger of finishing below .500, something which might require them to get in through an automatic bid (they’d need help from at least one other Big Ten school to make this happen). What a regular season finale that will be next weekend in State College.*
In the second Big Ten game of the day, Ohio State beat Michigan. This is noteworthy because a month and a half ago, Ohio State did not beat Michigan. People can change.
Then, the nightcap. We were hoping on a Rutgers win. We want all God’s children to give the NIT their best effort, and if your God doesn’t love New Jersey, you and I are reading different gospels. (God obviously loves Nebraska; if he didn’t he would not have sent them Rienk Mast.) The Rutgers win did not happen, though. Nebraska beat them. And with that, we are bidding goodbye to Nebraska once more. Northwestern? They move back into the Too Hot zone, but Nebraska is too too hot. The Huskers might be beyond saving.
Rutgers is still in the mix. But winning is better than losing (when you’re in Rutgers’s position).
*Yesterday, we called the potential Brad Underwood vs. Fran McCaffery boxing match the regular season finale, but that’s because it would happen after the Illinois/Iowa game ends. The Illinois/Iowa game tips half an hour earlier than Indiana/Maryland. This is hugely important to all of you, and also to me.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: UMass, Duquesne
- Just Right: Richmond, St. Bonaventure, VCU, Loyola (IL)
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Kansas State, Cincinnati, UCF
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold: North Texas
- Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU
You don’t make an NIT Championship if you’re a nobody. Which makes what Memphis did against UAB yesterday even more impressive. It wasn’t just an historic blowout-turned-comeback-turned-blowout. It was an historic blowout-turned-comeback-turned-blowout against the defending national runner up.
Elsewhere, North Texas beat ECU to sneak back past the five percent line. GMG. Congratulations to Rubin Jones on the milestone.
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Utah, Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
Tristan da Silvaaaaaaaaaa!
Colorado took care of business against Stanford. In the bad way. Would’ve been a great loss for the NIT dream.
(Note from Joe: Washington and USC’s respective NET ratings weren’t as affected by Saturday’s result as our model anticipated, so USC drops back out of the Too Cold zone. Ripple Effect.)
SEC
- Too Hot: Mississippi State
- Too Cold: Georgia
- Just Right: Mississippi, LSU, Texas A&M
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley, Drake
First, apologies for missing that Indiana State played yesterday. We were honestly so locked in on Drake vs. Bradley that we forgot the Sycamores had a game. And by the look of things at the end of it…SO DID THEY AM I RIGHT?!?
I kid, I kid. They were never in serious trouble. Just a brief Murray State run.
But yes, the Sycamores did play. They still need a loss this week in St. Louis, and it’s unclear to whom. The earlier the better.
Second…
Drake was playing for NIT seeding, right? I think they were just playing for seeding?
We’re nervous about all the two-bid MVC talk among patrons of that other tournament. We like all three of these teams. Is Drake one of our two favorites? *hemming and hawing and equivocating* We don’t know yet. We’re still trying to figure it out. There’s a lot to like about Drake. The other two…(I think we just want SIU to win Arch Madness.)
Yes, Bradley’s in a little more danger because of the loss. It was expected, but it would have been such a good win for them. Big week ahead in St. Louis.
Sun Belt
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: James Madison, Appalachian State
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Colorado State, Nevada, Boise State
- Too Cold: UNLV
- Just Right:
Colorado State rejoins us. Ripple Effect.
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
WCC
- Too Hot: Saint Mary’s
- Too Cold: San Francisco
- Just Right:
The NIT Wasteland, From Whence Only the Most Noble Beat the Odds
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: Samford
- Just Right:
Lost UC Irvine again. Ripple Effect.
ToNITe:
- Houston Christian at McNeese
If there was ever a loss that could cut a cord on McNeese’s NIT parachute…
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 21 teams (20 yesterday)
- Too cold – 15 teams (14 yesterday)
- Just right – 31 teams (32 yesterday)
For a book named after a house of slaughter, Slaughterhouse Five is sure a cheerful read.
