This NIT Bubble Watch is for Sunday, March 17th. It is our final NIT Bubble Watch of the season. God bless you all, and please check our homepage this evening for the NIT Bracket Challenge.
The Brown Bears are, we must report, electric.
We had a hunch after that comeback against Yale last weekend, but boy oh boy, we underestimated the Bears. The tip of the bid thief spear, Brown pierced Princeton’s bubble yesterday in the early afternoon, and the race was on. Soon, FAU was making an NIT push, while Oklahoma and Michigan State perked up with glee as NC State and Oregon fumbled their NIT chances away. Where did it leave us? In a happy, happy place. It’s going to be a great NIT field, folks. Even better, with Chris Beard not in it.
Without further ado:
NIT Bubble Watch.
As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50% (OR: We know you’re on the bubble even if Joe’s model doesn’t)
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture are combined at the bottom. Sediment.
ACC
- Too Hot: Virginia
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Boston College, Florida State
- LOCKS: WAKE FOREST, PITT, VIRGINIA TECH, SYRACUSE
NC State, we will miss you. You were a beautiful NIT candidate for much of the season. Thank you for falling on the sword so we could have some laughs at UNC’s expense. Noble until the end. Glad to have two more years of Kevin Keatts thanks to that bonus extension the ACCT win triggered.
Virginia! Looking pretty good, Mr. Bennett.
The deal with Virginia is that if this was about who deserves an NIT bid, based on wins and losses, Virginia probably wouldn’t be in. But Virginia’s NIT campaign has had an ace up the sleeve: A lot of people absolutely hate watching this team play basketball. Us? Nothing of the sort. Come our way, UVA. Play with those who appreciate you.
Boston College should be ok on the lower bubble, but Florida State’s in a lot of danger. Florida State’s cheering for Yale to win right now, and might want UAB to beat Temple just to be safe.
Big East
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Xavier
- Just Right: Seton Hall, Providence. St. John’s
- LOCKS: VILLANOVA, BUTLER
I’m coming around on the idea of Northeastern schools making the NIT. If Rick Pitino says it’s a shame the NIT Final Four isn’t at Madison Square Garden, we can ask him to do something about it! Presumably, he has about as good a relationship with James Dolan as anyone could. Start dealing, Rick.
There’s a lot of smoke about teams opting out on the upper bubble, and I can’t tell if it’s teams actually wanting to opt out or if some blowhards are looking to craft a narrative. A lot of college basketball media folks would never dare say anything bad about a sitting coach, for fear of losing access. This leaves them with few targets for criticism. The NIT, being faceless to them and run by the faceless NCAA, is a convenient outlet for their misery. So, if you see any of these glorified blog boys getting giddy about declined bids, maybe ask them to wipe Bruce Pearl’s butthairs from their lips before they talk their shit.
If there are opt-outs, the NIT will be fine. It can’t be that many. You think we’d have heard by now from NIT locks if they intended not to play. So far, the three saying no are an opportunist with significant domestic abuse allegations in his recent past, a snake oil salesman who managed to get sanctioned for paying players even after paying players became legal, and a doofus who still does not seem to comprehend college basketball three years into his job at one of the sport’s most iconic programs, something he made even more evident in declining this bid as he made clear he believes the core Hoosier issue is talent and not culture. If those are the only three, the NIT’s not in bad shape. (Indiana does hurt. We feel for Mississippi and for the good Memphis fans. But Mississippi made its choice when they hired the guy, and Memphis is…well, it’s Memphis.)
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oklahoma
- LOCKS: CINCINNATI, KANSAS STATE, UCF
Jamie Dixon making a little push?
Our model doesn’t think we’ll get TCU, but our model hasn’t seen a committee split hairs between teams like these, and our model was already a little bad at approximating the hair-splitting process. Our model *does* think we’ll get Oklahoma, and the industry seems to lean against that, but Sooner fans can dream. This is a very funny thing to me, but the prospect of a UCF/USF first-round matchup hinges on whether Oklahoma makes the NIT. If Oklahoma gets abducted into the NCAA T*urnament, then UCF gets an automatic bid, which comes with a home game. If Oklahoma’s in the NIT, then UCF’s in as an at-large but isn’t quite good enough to play at home, putting both the Knights and the Bulls on the road.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot: VCU
- Too Cold: UMass
- Just Right: Duquesne
- LOCKS: RICHMOND, LOYOLA (IL)
George Mason, Saint Joe’s, and St. Bonaventure aren’t out of this, but we believe UMass will be first in the pecking order if there’s going to be a fourth A-10 team. Between Duquesne and VCU? Loser’s with us. Hoping on Duquesne vs. Pitt in the first round.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Northwestern, Michigan State
- Too Cold: Minnesota
- Just Right:
- LOCKS: OHIO STATE, IOWA
God forbid, if Ohio State or Iowa declines, Maryland gets this automatic bid. I hate even talking about the declined bid possibility, because it usually never happens and I’m afraid of the Streisand effect, but three is a new high for a non-Covid season, so we kind of have to address it. The fact Ohio State’s making Jake Diebler the full-time coach feels good. Also, I understand why some people don’t like Fran McCaffery, and there are certainly things I don’t respect about the guy, but our sources have always indicated he’s a decent man with a sense of pride. He’s another who’s probably sad about the move away from MSG, but Iowa fans would fill up Hinkle Fieldhouse if the Hawkeyes made it there, so that might be some consolation.
In happier news: Michigan State??? The Spartans aren’t entirely safe from us. January. February. Izzo?
Northwestern also remains in the mix. The path for them is that bad committee saying “ehhh that’s a tough injury to Ty Berry…”
SEC
- Too Hot: Texas A&M, Mississippi State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: LSU, Georgia
Our model has Texas A&M locked in the NCAA To*rnament but the industry says that’s extreme. Joe’s written about this in other places. Mississippi State’s close to that same status, but seems safer from us than A&M, based on expert opinion?
It really looks like we’re getting LSU and Georgia, but we won’t know until we know.
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right:
- LOCK: UTAH, WASHINGTON
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
NIT basketball coming to See-at-lllllllle!!!!
With Oregon vacating our premises, Washington becomes a lock, and unless Colorado falls in (the Buffs are another our model is aggressively projecting to miss the NIT), the Huskies will get in via automatic bid. Another home game. More of that camera angle people love to complain about.
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Indiana State
- LOCK: BRADLEY
It’s been a long week, but we have almost done it. There is almost no chance Indiana State misses the NIT.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold: UAB
- Just Right: SMU
- LOCK: SOUTH FLORIDA
UAB’s path materializes if the NIT committee pivots to caring less about how good you are and more about how good your wins and losses are. FAU’s path materializes if the NCAA *ournament committee watched them play yesterday and sees the Bryant and FGCU losses on the list as well. Overall, we don’t expect either, and with SMU on the bubble, it’s possible this will be a one-bid league. Would love Dusty May coming home to Indiana to compete for a national title, but that may have to wait until Mike Woodson gets fired next February with Indiana on its way to missing the NIT outright.
Ivy League
- Too Hot: Yale
- Too Cold: Cornell
- Just Right:
- LOCK: PRINCETON
Forgive me, but I’m excited about Princeton. I really like that team, I really like the program, and Mitch Henderson’s from Indiana. Yale is gonna be very bubbly if they lose this one to Brown, but they have to lose to have a chance. Cornell is probably on the outside, but they’re close enough that we could see it.
The Junk Drawer (Now Including the Mountain West!)
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: UC Irvine
- Just Right: UNLV, Appalachian State, San Francisco
No dice for Grand Canyon last night, though a massive fight resulting in a forfeit was briefly a possibility at the end, which would have been a hell of a way to make the NIT. UC Irvine’s right on that bubble. Anteaters are cheering hard for Yale. What a sport.
**
The big picture is this.
We think these 23 teams are safely in the NIT, though they aren’t all 100% locks:
- Appalachian State
- Bradley
- Butler
- Cincinnati
- Indiana State
- Iowa
- Kansas State
- Loyola (IL)
- Ohio State
- Pitt
- Princeton
- Providence
- Richmond
- South Florida
- Syracuse
- UCF
- UNLV
- Utah
- Villanova
- Virginia Tech
- Wake Forest
- Washington
- The loser of Duquesne vs. VCU
We think these eleven teams are in the mix for three spots up top:
- Colorado
- Florida Atlantic
- Michigan State
- Mississippi State
- Northwestern
- Oklahoma
- Seton Hall
- St. John’s
- Texas A&M
- TCU
- Virginia
We think these 13 teams have the best chance at the remaining six spots:
- Boston College
- Cornell
- Florida State
- Georgia
- LSU
- Maryland
- Minnesota
- San Francisco
- SMU
- UC Irvine
- UMass
- Xavier
- Yale
Joe will be updating our NIT Bracketology page as games complete today. He’ll be posting again after the NCAA Tournam*nt Selection Show. We’ll have the NIT Bracket Challenge live and accepting entries later tonight. We will be tweeting as well.
It’s a big day, friends. It’s a big, big day. Happy St. Patrick’s Day, and Bona NIT to you and yours.
