NIT Bubble Watch – March 7th, 2023

A quiet evening?

Not in NIT World!!!!!!

Let’s get to it.

Helpful links:

  • NIT Bracketology: Our latest projection of the eventual field, from just a few hours ago.
  • NIT Bracketology Rundown: First Four Out, Next Four Out, and assorted complications.
  • NIT Bubble Watch: This page will help guide you to the most recent Bubble Watch, in case you’re viewing one from a previous day.
  • NIT Blog Posts: This will take you to every blog post talking NIT, a collection which includes our daily previews of the action at hand, usually published shortly after this.

Conference by conference:

ACC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): UNC, Pitt, NC State
  • Sweet Spot: Clemson
  • In the Mix (Low): Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big Ten

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Rutgers, Wisconsin, Penn State, Illinois, Iowa
  • Sweet Spot: Michigan
  • In the Mix (Low): Nebraska

Big 12

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Oklahoma State, West Virginia
  • Sweet Spot: Texas Tech
  • In the Mix (Low): Oklahoma

SEC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas
  • Sweet Spot: Florida, Vanderbilt
  • In the Mix (Low):

Big East

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Providence
  • Sweet Spot: Seton Hall
  • In the Mix (Low): Villanova, St. John’s

Pac-12

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Arizona State, USC
  • Sweet Spot: Oregon, Washington State
  • In the Mix (Low): Colorado, Utah, Washington

Mountain West

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Nevada, Utah State, Boise State
  • Sweet Spot: New Mexico
  • In the Mix (Low): UNLV, San Jose State

The American

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Memphis
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane

Conference USA

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Florida Atlantic
  • In the Mix (High): North Texas
  • Sweet Spot: UAB
  • In the Mix (Low):

West Coast Conference

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, BYU

The deal for BYU and Loyola Marymount is as follows:

The NIT committee doesn’t necessarily take the same approach every year. Some years, it matters more how good a team is. Some years, it matters more how accomplished a team is. It’s unclear what exactly defines each of those things, but BYU and LMU each have a chance in a very specific possibility. For BYU, it’s if the committee cares a ton about KenPom. For LMU, it’s if the committee cares a ton about KPI, or at least thinks very similarly to how KPI is built. Even those approaches might leave these two short, but that’s the general thought.

Santa Clara’s still right on the bubble. Automatic bids and other bubble teams may push them one way or another, but it’s likelier they’ll just be sweating until Sunday night. (And ideally after that, too—good luck, Broncos!)

Atlantic 10

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: VCU
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Dayton, Saint Louis, Fordham

WAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Utah Valley
  • In the Mix (High): Sam Houston State
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Sam Houston State

Sun Belt

  • Automatic Bid: Southern Miss
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Marshall, Louisiana

Missouri Valley

  • Automatic Bid: Bradley

MAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Toledo
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Kent State

CAA

  • Automatic Bid: Hofstra
  • In the Mix (High): College of Charleston
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): College of Charleston

Welcome, Hofstra!!!

Now.

Will Charleston get in if they lose tonight? We would guess so. We would guess they’re a lock if they lose. But, we aren’t sure of that. You know? So maybe they wouldn’t be a lock after all. If it’s a close loss, that’s better than it being a big loss, but then they have to thread the needle…oof. Tough task ahead of the Cougars. Good luck.

ASUN

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot: Liberty (Lock)
  • In the Mix (Low):

MAAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Iona
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Summit League

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Oral Roberts
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Oral Roberts is into the Summit League championship game, making tonight simple. If they lose, we get to hang out with Max Abmas. If they win, we don’t.

Ivy League

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Yale
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Big West

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: UC-Irvine
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Big Sky

  • Automatic Bid: Eastern Washington

SoCon

  • It’s over.

It was real, Furman. It was fun. See you another time.

Horizon League

  • Automatic Bid: Youngstown State

(insert George Bush ‘we got him’ GIF)

Big South

  • It’s over.

America East

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Vermont
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Patriot League

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Colgate
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

MEAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Howard
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Ohio Valley

  • Automatic Bid: Morehead State

Southland

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

The Islanders will play McNeese State rather than Nicholls State in the Southland semis, and that’s probably a good draw for their winning chances and therefore a bad draw for their NIT opportunity.

SWAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Alcorn State
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

NEC

  • It’s over.

**

Now. The day can officially begin.

NIT fan. Joe Kelly expert. Milk drinker. Can be found on Twitter (@nit_stu) and Instagram (@nitstu32).
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