NIT Bubble Watch – March 4th, 2023

A good morning to all, but an especially good morning to Morehead State!!!!!!! That’s right, friends and family and strangers on the internet: The Eagles have taken the first NIT auto-bid.

On its own, this doesn’t change the picture too much. We aren’t updating our bracketology again until tomorrow, but our current best guess is still 12 for the ultimate number of automatic bids. Still, it’s a bad start for bubblers, who want as few of those auto-slots taken as possible. The pressure continues to rise.

Let’s get to what went down.

Helpful links:

  • NIT Bracketology: Our latest projection of the eventual field, from before yesterday’s games.
  • NIT Bracketology Rundown: First Four Out, Next Four Out, and assorted complications (also from before yesterday’s games).
  • NIT Bubble Watch: This page will help guide you to the most recent Bubble Watch, in case you’re viewing one from a previous day.
  • NIT Blog Posts: This will take you to every blog post talking NIT, a collection which includes our daily previews of the action at hand, usually published shortly after this.

Conference by conference:

ACC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Pitt
  • In the Mix (High): UNC, Pitt, NC State
  • Sweet Spot: Clemson
  • In the Mix (Low): Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big Ten

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Penn State, Wisconsin, Rutgers
  • Sweet Spot: Michigan
  • In the Mix (Low): Nebraska

Big 12

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Iowa State, West Virginia
  • Sweet Spot: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
  • In the Mix (Low):

SEC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri
  • Sweet Spot: Florida, Vanderbilt
  • In the Mix (Low):

Big East

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Providence
  • Sweet Spot: Villanova
  • In the Mix (Low): Seton Hall, St. John’s

Pac-12

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Arizona State, USC
  • Sweet Spot: Oregon, Washington State
  • In the Mix (Low): Utah, Colorado, Washington

Mountain West

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Nevada, Utah State
  • Sweet Spot: New Mexico
  • In the Mix (Low): San Jose State, UNLV

Sweeter than Sweet. That’s what they’re saying about New Mexico, who took a Q2 loss in Fort Collins in clean, professional fashion. New Mexico had been flirting with getting back on the bubble, but consider the flirtation over. Good riddance, we say. That bubble was no good for our friends anyway.

The American

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Memphis
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane

Tulane very nearly did themselves in, but they escaped the East Carolina invasion, and they hang on by a thread. Lot of basketball left for these guys in theory, but it’s going to be tough to get back to where they were before the losing streak.

Conference USA

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Florida Atlantic
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot: North Texas, UAB
  • In the Mix (Low): Middle Tennessee State

West Coast Conference

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, BYU

BYU won, keeping its faint hopes alive. San Francisco won, so they’ll advance to play Santa Clara on the Gonzaga side of the bracket.

Atlantic 10

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: VCU
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Dayton, Saint Louis, Duquesne, Fordham

Saint Louis needed that, and they got it, but it doesn’t completely change their fate. It’s just a step. Dayton? Much harder to see the Flyers threading the needle now than it was entering last night. Disappointment for the Daytons.

WAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Utah Valley, Sam Houston State?
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Sam Houston State, Utah Valley?

We still don’t have a WACket, but the WAC did refer to Utah Valley as its regular season champion after the Wolverines and Bearkats both won last night. We’ll hold off for now on declaring them the definite auto-bid pursuer, but I’d really imagine we should know for sure by tomorrow morning. Mostly because I think they’ll be the 1-seed in the WAC Tournament, but even if they aren’t, I’d guess we get clarification.

Sun Belt

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Southern Miss
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Marshall, Louisiana, James Madison

Missouri Valley

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Bradley
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Drake

Bradley escaped Northern Iowa, in good news for fans of teams on our Lower Bubble. Drake put away Murray State, in bad news for fans of non-Drake teams on our Lower Bubble.

MAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Toledo
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Kent State

Toledo is the champion, and Kent State will have its work cut out for it. The Flashes are in NIT terrain, but they’ll need to lose in the conference tournament while not falling out of our window. That’s tough to do.

CAA

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Hofstra
  • In the Mix (High): College of Charleston
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

ASUN

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Kennesaw State
  • In the Mix (High):Liberty
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

MAAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Iona
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Summit League

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Oral Roberts
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

North Dakota beat Denver, so that’s whom Oral Roberts will play tonight.

Ivy League

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Yale, Princeton, Penn
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Big West

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: UC-Irvine, UC-Santa Barbara
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Big Sky

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Eastern Washington
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

SoCon

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Furman
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Mercer beat The Citadel, so Furman kicks off its SoCon Tournament experience—excuse me; the Ingles SoCon Championship—playing the Bears. The Mercer Bears. Better than MRSA Bears am I right?!

Horizon League

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Youngstown State
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Big South

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: UNC-Asheville
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Charleston Southern gave UNC Asheville a little bit of trouble early, but the Bulldogs got back and pulled away with it, getting plenty of free throw practice down the stretch. On to the semifinals today against heavily vibing South Carolina Upstate.

America East

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Vermont
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Patriot League

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Colgate
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

MEAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Howard
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Ohio Valley

  • Automatic Bid: Morehead State

It’s over. Morehead is in. But really?

It’s only just begun.

Southland

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

SWAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Grambling State, Alcorn State
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

NEC

  • It’s over.

**

And there, dear friends, we are. We’ll be back tomorrow with more NIT Bubble Watch, and—provided there is no meteor—some fresh NIT Bracketology.

Can’t wait.

NIT fan. Joe Kelly expert. Milk drinker. Can be found on Twitter (@nit_stu) and Instagram (@nitstu32).
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