Good day! And what a day it is. The Big South Tournament is already underway, as is another day of Arch Madness. Before we get to all that, though, here’s what went down last NITe, and where it left us this morning.
Helpful links:
- NIT Bracketology: Our latest projection of the eventual field, from before yesterday’s games.
- NIT Bracketology Rundown: First Four Out, Next Four Out, and assorted complications (also from before yesterday’s games).
- NIT Bubble Watch: This page will help guide you to the most recent Bubble Watch, in case you’re viewing one from a previous day.
- NIT Blog Posts: This will take you to every blog post talking NIT, a collection which includes our daily previews of the action at hand, usually published shortly after this.
Conference by conference:
ACC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Pitt
- In the Mix (High): UNC, Pitt, NC State
- Sweet Spot: Clemson
- In the Mix (Low): Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big Ten
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Penn State, Wisconsin, Rutgers
- Sweet Spot: Michigan
- In the Mix (Low): Nebraska
Ok, Penn State’s on the bubble. We held off yesterday, but last night’s action from their peers put them on it. They’re the second overall seed in today’s bracketology.
Also on the bubble is, dramatically, Rutgers. This is a big shift for Rutgers. Imagine hearing five years ago that Rutgers would one day play their way onto the bubble from the top! You would have laughed in my ugly little face.
Lot of work left for Rutgers.
We’re willing to call Illinois officially done, even though both they and Michigan did their best to lose last night’s game. In the end, only one could lose, and it was the Michigans. They move back down into the Sweet Spot, though an upset on Sunday could push them right back up.
Wisconsin nearly bit the dust, but they’re still with us for now. Opinions are varying widely at the moment on them, Utah State, Auburn, and a handful of others, but they’re at least in the conversation. We still have hope on that front.
Big 12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Iowa State, West Virginia
- Sweet Spot: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
- In the Mix (Low):
SEC
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri
- Sweet Spot: Florida, Vanderbilt
- In the Mix (Low):
No games last night in the SEC, but upon running our model again, we’re realizing Auburn is in deep trouble.
By which we mean deep possibility of greatness.
By which we mean Auburn might make the NIT.
There’s a long way to go, Bruce Pearl could always try dropping a bag, but at the moment, Auburn’s squarely in the picture. They could win this weekend and miss by a lot. They could also make the NIT.
Vanderbilt moves into the Sweet Spot, also upon more intel from our model. We use two formulas—one for selection, one for seeding—and Vanderbilt’s great in the selection one. They might not get a home game, but barring disaster, they should make the NIT.
Big East
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Providence
- Sweet Spot: Villanova
- In the Mix (Low): Seton Hall, St. John’s
Pac-12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Arizona State, USC
- Sweet Spot: Oregon, Washington State
- In the Mix (Low): Utah, Colorado, Washington
Great work from all three of Washington State, Arizona State, and USC last night. Washington State’s was the most consequential, being more about result than margin, but USC and ASU kept the fire alive.
With Wazzu’s win, they’re now guaranteed to finish at least .500, and barring a loss to Cal or something else terrible in the Pac-12 Tournament we’d expect them to be among those called on the best Selection Show next Sunday will have ever seen. Bravo, Wazzu. Glad to have you back.
Mountain West
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Nevada, Utah State
- Sweet Spot: New Mexico
- In the Mix (Low): San Jose State, UNLV
The American
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Memphis
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane
Wichita State did not get the win in Houston, so no Shockers here. UCF missed a big opportunity down at Temple (Temple who remains behind even Washington in our world). Memphis took care of business at SMU, but in the worst way possible. It’s looking like the only way Memphis could make the NIT at this point is with a lot of bid thieves and a blowout loss to someone like South Florida in the AAC Tournament. It’s been real, Penny. We’ll see you next year, I guess.
Conference USA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Florida Atlantic
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot: North Texas, UAB
- In the Mix (Low): Middle Tennessee State
FAU did not need to win big, but win big they did, and their NIT chance is again looking more complicated than simply losing the Conference USA Tournament. North Texas got a nice win over Middle Tennessee State, who remains merely a wildcard possibility. UAB was idle.
West Coast Conference
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, BYU
The WCC Tournament started, and BYU draws Portland tonight after the Pilots took down San Diego. Pacific plays San Francisco on the other side, with the winner of that one moving on to play Santa Clara tomorrow.
Atlantic 10
- Auto-Bid Contenders: VCU
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Dayton, Saint Louis, Duquesne, Fordham
WAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Utah Valley, Sam Houston State?
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Sam Houston State, Utah Valley?
Sun Belt
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Southern Miss
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Marshall, Louisiana, James Madison
Finally, today, at long last, all these teams…oh gosh the Sun Belt gives everyone a day off today. Forgot about that.
Well, at least we know who they’ll all play. Fans of NIT bubble teams will be unhappy to know that South Alabama beat Appalachian State, so Southern Miss’s path to not taking an auto-bid got that much harder.
Missouri Valley
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Bradley
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Drake
Games here today. Bradley drew Northern Iowa, Drake drew Murray State coming out of yesterday’s action. No big changes for either.
MAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Kent State, Toledo
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Kent State, Toledo
We’ve got the regular season finales still to be played in the good ol’ MAC, and they’ll be played tonight. Toledo goes to Muncie on a 14-game winning streak, the longest in the country (thanks, KenPom). Kent State hosts Akron, who’d love to get back in it. With a win and a Toledo loss, Kent State wins the MAC on a tiebreaker. This would be good for other teams on the NIT bubble, eliminating the possibility of a two-bid MAC.
CAA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Hofstra
- In the Mix (High): College of Charleston
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
ASUN
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Kennesaw State
- In the Mix (High):Liberty
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Liberty and Kennesaw both won, so Sunday’s ASUN Championship is an NIT entry game. Loser enters. Winner exits, for hellish climes.
MAAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Iona
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Still no bracket here, but Iona did win again.
Summit League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Oral Roberts
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Ivy League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Yale, Princeton, Penn
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
No Ivy League Friday this week. They stopped those half a month ago.
Big West
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UC-Irvine, UC-Santa Barbara
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Heartbreaker for all our fellow fans of UC Riverside, as the Highlanders welcomed UC Irvine to town and were not treated nicely by their guests. If I understand the scenarios correctly, UC Irvine now controls its fate, with UCSB needing a win and a UCI loss tomorrow to win the league. UCR is—again, this is only if I understand correctly, and as we’ve covered before the Big West is confusing right now—done.
Big Sky
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Eastern Washington
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
SoCon
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Furman
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Horizon League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Youngstown State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
In a big break for NIT bubbler fans, Youngstown State got past Detroit Mercy last night. In another big break, Milwaukee beat Wright State, eliminating one of the tougher remaining potential Penguin pfoes.
Big South
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UNC-Asheville
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
America East
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Vermont
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Patriot League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Colgate
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Colgate marched on, and now the biggest thing standing between them and the NCA* *********t is the United States Army. I don’t know if you guys have heard of Afghanistan, but I have. I’m betting on Colgate in that one.
One big thing here: Navy lost, which clears even more space for Colgate. Still looking like 12 is the likeliest number of NIT automatic bids, but every little bit helps for teams like Colorado and Wake Forest.
MEAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Howard
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Howard smoked Norfolk State, and the Bison are MEAC champions. They aren’t as likely to win the conference tournament as Norfolk would have been, so this is tough news for bubbler fans, but given they smoked Norfolk, maybe it wouldn’t have been close anyway.
Ohio Valley
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Morehead State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Morehead will play SEMO in the semifinals. This is the worse scenario for bubbler fans. SIU-Edwardsville did get knocked out, which helps ease the Morehead path. Not by any punches, but there were those too. Lot of punches in that game.
Southland
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
SWAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Grambling State, Alcorn State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Grambling and Alcorn each won last night (and the MVSU student announcers shone as always – “Great job, Wilt”), and Alcorn’s the favorite once more. If they beat UAPB tomorrow, they win the league. If they lose and Grambling wins against Alabama State, Grambling wins the league. If both lose, I’m pretty sure it’s Alcorn’s. Bubbler fans would prefer Grambling. But hey. This is all on the margins.
NEC
- It’s over.
**
That’s all of it. More NIT Bubble Watch tomorrow, with adjustments from toNITe’s games. Might have a new bracket, but that’s up in the air.
Unless there’s a meteor. If there’s a meteor, none of this will happen.
