“Good morning to the cops. Good morning to the upstairs neighbors (the guys who live on my roof).”
It’s another NIT day, and that means we just had another NIT NITe. Here’s where it left us.
Helpful links:
- NIT Bracketology: Our latest projection of the eventual field, from before yesterday’s games.
- NIT Bracketology Rundown: First Four Out, Next Four Out, and assorted complications (also from before yesterday’s games).
- NIT Bubble Watch: This page will help guide you to the most recent Bubble Watch, in case you’re viewing one from a previous day.
- NIT Blog Posts: This will take you to every blog post talking NIT, a collection which includes our daily previews of the action at hand, usually published shortly after this.
Conference by conference:
ACC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Pitt
- In the Mix (High): Pitt, UNC, NC State
- Sweet Spot: Clemson
- In the Mix (Low): Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Pitt! With the statement loss!
The Panthers went to South Bend and Mike Brey beat ‘em one last time. (Unless they meet in the ACC Tournament, but that doesn’t fit with our plan. What’s our plan? Read on to find out.) It wasn’t the most surprising loss—Pitt was only favored by three or four points—but Notre Dame is really, really bad this year, so it helped Pitt’s cause immensely. Back from the brink of death, that Pitt. (Wow if Pitt plays at New Mexico we could have Pitt in the Pit. Had not realized that. Wow.)
We, of course, would find it hilarious and fair were this year’s ACC to get an automatic bid to the NIT, which is to say that we, of course, would find it hilarious and fair were this year’s ACC champion an NIT team. Can that happen? Yes. Pitt just needs to beat Miami now and then lose badly in their ACC Tournament opener, ideally to Boston College (Wake might do the trick too, and is also an option). The path is there.
Big Ten
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Rutgers
- Sweet Spot: Penn State
- In the Mix (Low): Nebraska
We’re keeping Penn State in our Sweet Spot, but they’re on the bubble of being on the Upper Bubble. We love Penn State, but we wouldn’t mind them leaving. We want Wisconsin, we want UNC, we want an ACC auto-bid, and we are done pretending. That’s what we want, and we will jettison our friends to get that.
Ohio State won again. Win five more in the row or get a change to the invisible .500 rule and they could be an NIT team.
Big 12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Iowa State, West Virginia
- Sweet Spot: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
- In the Mix (Low):
Oklahoma would now need to win three times in a row to finish .500, so…adios, Sooners. Iowa State moves closer because Caleb Grill got kicked off the team and that seems like something that could call the other committee’s attention to the disintegration in Ames. Please do not tell Joe I am thinking these things.
SEC
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Mississippi State, Auburn, Missouri
- Sweet Spot: Florida
- In the Mix (Low): Vanderbilt
Mizzou almost made it a big NITe for themselves, but instead, they’re toeing the line of not even appearing in these posts. They still have Mississippi, and that game is at home. We won’t count them out yet.
Similarly, we won’t count Vanderbilt in yet. The theme of the 2022 NIT bracket was the committee caring about NET and/or KenPom an extraordinary amount. If that happens, Vandy’s still in trouble, even having that win in Lexington. There will be pity parties because of this, but Vanderbilt should remember: KenPom is a very accurate reflection of how good teams are. The solution to all of this is simply to be better at basketball.
Big East
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Providence
- Sweet Spot: Villanova
- In the Mix (Low): Seton Hall, St. John’s
Providence is sticking around. The haters say it can’t happen, but the haters also take the AP Poll at face value. They’ve got a bad Q1 record, Chet!
Pac-12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Arizona State, USC
- Sweet Spot: Oregon
- In the Mix (Low): Washington State, Colorado, Utah, Washington
Mountain West
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Utah State, Nevada
- Sweet Spot: New Mexico
- In the Mix (Low): UNLV, San Jose State
The story of the evening: Utah State boosted its NET ranking by eight spots.
This feels dumb, and it is dumb. But with college football? All folks care about is rankings. And I don’t see people complaining about that.
The great news for Utah State with this is that if they do make the NIT, they’ve already shown they can tear down Las Vegas. Championship potential.
The American
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Memphis
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane
We might be saying goodbye to Tulane soon, the Green Wave a Green Ripple last night against East Carolina. After all of that, it may be Green Curtains. But then again…
We’ve thought we said goodbye to Tulane before.
Conference USA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Florida Atlantic
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot: North Texas, UAB
- In the Mix (Low): Middle Tennessee State
MTSU. This will make sense in a moment.
West Coast Conference
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, BYU
Atlantic 10
- Auto-Bid Contenders: VCU
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Dayton, Saint Louis, Duquesne, Fordham
Fordham hurt their cause last night. There’s no way around that. They lost a basketball game, and you do not want to do that right now if you are Fordham.
At the same time, though, Fordham’s case rests on the idea that the committee could do a hard pivot from last year’s approach and value accomplishments more than ability. If they do that, Fordham’s suddenly right on the cusp. And on that topic, we should probably add Middle Tennessee State, who’s also a KPI darling. Hold on a second.
*time travel noises*
*scribbling noises*
*more time travel noises*
Ok, I’m back.
WAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Utah Valley, Sam Houston State?
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Sam Houston State, Utah Valley?
First, happy birthday to Sam Houston. 230 years old. I don’t know how you do it.
Second, I just spent a lot of time (a few minutes) on the WAC’s website and Twitter page and I’m still not sure whether Utah Valley has the WAC championship clinched (for NIT auto-bid purposes—I know they’ve clinched a share). It’s possible they do, it’s also possible they need to just win their last game, it’s also possible they need to win their last game and also stay ahead of Sam Houston State in the seeding rankings.
Sam Houston State won as well.
Sun Belt
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Southern Miss
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Marshall, Louisiana, James Madison
This is our first of the leagues with conference tournament games happening today, so come back to the homepage in a few and we’ll walk you through the NIT implications there. Same goes for all the others with tournament games on the docket who didn’t play last NITe.
Missouri Valley
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Bradley
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Drake
MAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Kent State, Toledo
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Kent State, Toledo
CAA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Hofstra
- In the Mix (High): College of Charleston
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
ASUN
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Kennesaw State
- In the Mix (High):Liberty
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
MAAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Iona
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Summit League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Oral Roberts
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Ivy League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Yale, Princeton, Penn
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Big West
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UC-Riverside, UC-Irvine, UC-Santa Barbara
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Big Sky
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Eastern Washington
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
SoCon
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Furman
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Horizon League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Youngstown State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Big South
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UNC-Asheville
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
America East
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Vermont
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Patriot League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Colgate
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
MEAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Norfolk State, Howard
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Ohio Valley
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Morehead State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
SEMO and SIU-Edwardsville both won, so Morehead State’s potential competition in the OVC Tournament is as deep as it could have been today. Still no Morehead game until tomorrow, but they’ll play someone better than who they theoretically could have played.
Also, everyone still in this tournament is NCAA eligible. No more D-I transitioners.
Southland
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
SWAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Grambling State, Alcorn State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
NEC
- It’s over.
**
That’s all of it. More NIT Bubble Watch tomorrow, with adjustments from toNITe’s games. Should even have a new bracket.
Unless there’s a meteor.
