Good day to you all.
There were games last NITe, and we updated our NIT Bracketology earlier today. Consider this an accessory to those two things, here to stoke your smoldering love of the NIT. Let’s get to it.
Helpful links:
- NIT Bracketology: Our latest projection of the eventual field, from before yesterday’s games.
- NIT Bracketology Rundown: First Four Out, Next Four Out, and assorted complications (also from before yesterday’s games).
- NIT Bubble Watch: This page will help guide you to the most recent Bubble Watch, in case you’re viewing one from a previous day.
- NIT Blog Posts: This will take you to every blog post talking NIT, a collection which includes our daily previews of the action at hand, usually published shortly after this.
Conference by conference:
ACC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Pitt?
- In the Mix (High): UNC, NC State, Pitt
- Sweet Spot: Clemson
- In the Mix (Low): Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
No more pretending with Syracuse. After whatever happened last night in the dome, it’s done.
Wake Forest? Not done yet, but they sure didn’t help themselves. Boston College has only beaten one NCA* *********t team, and the Eagles are well behind even Syracuse in the seed list. That was a bad, bad loss for the Deacs, even if BC’s vibes are good.
Virginia Tech caught an updraft, reminding us again that it’s better to win by a lot than to win by a little. They took care of business, and they aren’t safe but if they can take care of business two more times, it’s hard to see them missing this.
Not a lot of noise on UNC, as Virginia beat Clemson by an acceptable margin and didn’t really move in the NET. Clemson? Not a lot of noise on them either. That’s good for Clemson right now.
One thing to watch here: NC State has a really nondescript résumé. All palatable to the committee, but none of it’s all that good. A bad loss to Syracuse or someone like that in the ACC Tournament? Not dead yet.
Big Ten
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Rutgers
- Sweet Spot: Penn State
- In the Mix (Low): Nebraska
Iowa’s gone now, bullying Indiana in Assembly Hall in a game that felt like not only watching your dad get beat up, but watching him get beat up by the douchiest kid in your school, and one who is furthermore well-known for being soft. We quite legitimately hate to see it.
Nebraska’s back into enormous trouble, losing a game they were expected to lose but doing it 1) by a lot and 2) in embarrassing fashion. The Huskers are expected to finish below .500 again, and that’s not the thing holding them out.
One thing to watch in this one: Rutgers does still have to play Minnesota, Northwestern, and then the Big Ten Tournament. The people love Northwestern, but ratings systems don’t, and a good way to make the NIT is to finish on a 2–7 run. Just saying. They’re probably gone, but right now they’re the highest team we’re watching.
Big 12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): West Virginia, Iowa State
- Sweet Spot: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
- In the Mix (Low): Oklahoma
Texas Tech is still with us, pushing it in Lawrence but keeping their toes on the line. They should be able to survive a win over Oklahoma State, which is good for the Big 12, because it isn’t clear that Oklahoma State could survive a win over Texas Tech.
SEC
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Mississippi State, Auburn, Missouri
- Sweet Spot: Florida
- In the Mix (Low): Vanderbilt
Florida!
The Gators are back, and might be our closest thing to a lock at the moment. They’re expected to finish just one game over .500 but they’ve got a NET in the 50s and a KenPom in the 60s and even their SOR is a fine 76th. The Florida Gators limp in, but they come through that door nonetheless. Work to do? Yes. Will they do it? Most likely.
Mississippi State did a good job of winning ugly, but movement around them still has them wanting more. Should probably lose to Vanderbilt this weekend.
There’s a lot of buzz around Arkansas and the NIT, but that mostly seems to be from Arkansas fans who like using the word “thug.” The Hogs aren’t going to the NIT. KenPom has them 15th in the country.
Big East
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Providence
- Sweet Spot: Villanova
- In the Mix (Low): Seton Hall, St. John’s
Seton Hall is officially in big trouble, and not just because the final minute of that game drove them as insane as it drove everybody else. That was waterboarding from Kyle Neptune. And I don’t mean torture generically. That was a specific kind of torture, and that kind was waterboarding.
It worked, of course, and Villanova is at least for the moment in a fairly ideal position. That can change, but right now Villanova’s in a great spot.
Pac-12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Arizona State, USC
- Sweet Spot: Oregon
- In the Mix (Low): Washington State, Colorado, Utah, Washington
As we looked over things, we realized Oregon’s safer than we thought, so the Ducks move down from the Mix into the Sweet Spot. Mostly movement around them the last two NITes.
Mountain West
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Utah State, Nevada
- Sweet Spot: New Mexico
- In the Mix (Low): UNLV, San Jose State
Au revoir, Boise State. And you didn’t even send San Diego State back our way! Not enough grit from San Diego State. Too much beach San Diego, not enough skateboarding San Diego.
New Mexico didn’t really hurt its cause, but the Lobos did miss a chance to become even safer. San Jose State’s still poking around.
The American
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Memphis
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane
Conference USA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Florida Atlantic
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot: North Texas, UAB
- In the Mix (Low):
West Coast Conference
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, BYU
Atlantic 10
- Auto-Bid Contenders: VCU
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Dayton, Saint Louis, Duquesne, Fordham
VCU has officially clinched the Atlantic 10 title, putting them into the NIT with just a loss in the A-10 Tournament, a loss they’re expected to grab. Dayton played well and helped its numbers, but they’re still in that tough spot where a loss could knock them out of the NIT but winning out would also leave them out of the NIT. SLU and Duquesne are on the far reaches of the bubble. Fordham should be further out but has some wildcard potential because of their strong body of work.
WAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Utah Valley, Sam Houston State?
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Sam Houston State, Utah Valley?
Sun Belt
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Southern Miss
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Marshall, Louisiana, James Madison
Games happened in this tournament. More will happen tomorrow.
Missouri Valley
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Bradley
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Drake
MAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Kent State, Toledo
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Kent State, Toledo
Now that we’ve written off Syracuse, we can resume writing off Akron. Big win in size for Toledo, but they’re still pretty much auto-bid or die. Kent State kept Toledo from clinching, but may have only delayed it.
CAA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Hofstra
- In the Mix (High): College of Charleston
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
ASUN
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Kennesaw State
- In the Mix (High):Liberty
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Kennesaw State survived Queens, and with Liberty eliminating Bellarmine we now have a straightforward situation with the ASUN. Four teams remain, Kennesaw State is in the NIT with a loss, and we’d guess the same is true for Liberty. If both lose? Two-bid ASUN, baby.
MAAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Iona
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Summit League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Oral Roberts
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Ivy League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Yale, Princeton, Penn
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Big West
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UC-Riverside, UC-Irvine, UC-Santa Barbara
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Big Sky
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Eastern Washington
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
SoCon
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Furman
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Horizon League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Youngstown State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Favorites all won in the Horizon League, which is bad news for NIT bubbler fans looking for Youngstown State to win this tournament. They’ll now play Detroit Mercy tomorrow, and Detroit Mercy has vibes. Specifically, Detroit Mercy has Antoine Davis and the lingering scent of Brad Calipari’s cologne.
Big South
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UNC-Asheville
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
America East
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Vermont
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
We have a bracket now in the A-East, but it’s a formality. That tournament’s just a question of whether 1) Vermont will get upset by someone bad or 2) Vermont will run into UMass-Lowell, who’d be expected to give them a good game.
Patriot League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Colgate
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Not a lot of news out of the Patriot League openers. Colgate will play Loyola Maryland in the quarterfinals. Colgate will be a heavy favorite.
MEAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Norfolk State, Howard
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Ohio Valley
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Morehead State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Southland
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
SWAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Grambling State, Alcorn State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
NEC
- It’s over.
**
More NIT Bubble Watch tomorrow, with adjustments from toNITe’s games.
Unless there’s a meteor.
