NIT Bubble Watch – March 11th, 2023

Good morning.

It’s Saturday.

The sun is shining, at least down here.

Let’s talk about the NIT field.

Helpful links:

• NIT Bracketology: Our latest projection of the eventual field, from just moments ago.
• NIT Bracketology Rundown: First Four Out, Next Four Out, and assorted complications.
• NIT Bubble Watch: This page will help guide you to the most recent Bubble Watch, in case you’re viewing one from a previous day.
• NIT Blog Posts: This will take you to every blog post talking NIT, a collection which includes our daily previews of the action at hand, usually published shortly after this.

Conference by conference:

ACC

• Auto-Bid Contenders:
• In the Mix (High): Clemson, Pitt, NC State
• Sweet Spot: UNC (Lock)
• In the Mix (Low): Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Clemson did what we are affectionately calling “the Pitt,” laying down and getting run over by a minivan they made to look like a truck. We will likely lock them in today. Just waiting to make sure the Bracket Matrix consensus doesn’t give us reason to pause.

Pitt and NC State remain in the waiting game. Virginia Tech is sweating, and Wake Forest got a bad break with two at-large spots closing up last night.

Big Ten

• Auto-Bid Contenders:
• In the Mix (High): Wisconsin, Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State, Iowa
• Sweet Spot: Michigan (Lock)
• In the Mix (Low): Nebraska

Remember when Penn State had a realistic NIT shot?

That was fun.

Rutgers evidently isn’t entirely safe, with the industry still labeling them as bubbly (when we talk about “the industry” we’re referencing Bracket Matrix). We have them out of the NIT, but you might want to keep an eye on the industry when it comes to the Upper Bubble.

On that topic: Our model still thinks Wisconsin has an NCA* *********t chance, so no lock for them. We don’t really believe Illinois, Iowa, or even Penn State has any way of making the NIT at this point, but our model has them close-ish, and we’d hate to eliminate all hope.

Big 12

• Auto-Bid Contenders:
• In the Mix (High): Oklahoma State
• Sweet Spot:
• In the Mix (Low):

Oklahoma State continues to wait, dreaming of three home games followed by a trip to Las Vegas. Still a big disagreement here between our model and Bracket Matrix, which happens when a team sheet is unusual. It starts getting pretty arbitrary when that happens near the bubble.

SEC

• Auto-Bid Contenders:
• In the Mix (High): Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Auburn
• Sweet Spot: Florida
• In the Mix (Low):

Whoa there, Vanderbilt.

Whoa.

Watch yourselves.

The Communists (short for Commies, which is short for Commodores) beat Kentucky in Nashville, raising the question of whether the NCA* *********t Selection Cartel is watching or if they’re going to give Vanderbilt the Texas A&M treatment even if they win today. I, for one, can’t wait to find out the answer. Could they be in with a loss?? Some think yes.

Mississippi State played badly enough against Alabama to keep their own question a question. You and I both know what their own question is.

Big East

• Auto-Bid Contenders:
• In the Mix (High): Providence
• Sweet Spot: Villanova
• In the Mix (Low): Seton Hall, St. John’s

A few brave souls on Bracket Matrix moved Providence into their implied projected NIT field, meaning our model isn’t completely alone. As such…

We have reinserted them into our NIT bracket.

A situation to continue monitoring. Basically, as long as two or more brackets on Bracket Matrix agree with our model, we let it ride. If the discrepancy gets even more extreme, though, we rein it back in.

Pac-12

• Auto-Bid Contenders:
• In the Mix (High): Arizona State, USC
• Sweet Spot: Oregon (Lock)
• In the Mix (Low): Colorado, Washington State, Utah

Oregon lost to UCLA, and with that, we’re comfortable calling the Ducks a lock. Congratulations, Phil Knight. Your teams are playing in a basketball tournament about exactly as old as you.

Arizona State lost to Arizona, but their situation is less sure. Lot of questions with ASU right now. Such as: Why did Dave Pasch hate so much on the NIT this week? That hurt. We always liked Dave Pasch.

Mountain West

• Auto-Bid Contenders:
• In the Mix (High): Nevada, Utah State
• Sweet Spot: New Mexico (Lock)
• In the Mix (Low): San Jose State, UNLV

*looks at Utah State*

*looks down at feet*

*looks at Boise State?*

It’s probably just New Mexico and Nevada. Maybe San Jose State. They didn’t do much against San Diego State, though, and the two-bid WAC’s gonna hurt.

The American

• Auto-Bid Contenders:
• In the Mix (High): Memphis
• Sweet Spot: Cincinnati
• In the Mix (Low): UCF, Tulane

We say it a lot around here.

You need to beat the everloving piss out of teams sometimes.

Cincinnati did just that.

And while it was hard seeing it come against Temple?

It’s what Cincy needed to get into the Sweet Spot.

The Bearcats aren’t safe—both from missing the NIT and from mortal destruction at the hands of Houston—but they’re in a good position right now. No lock today in any scenario, but they’re in a good position right now.

UCF’s loss to Memphis may have eliminated them both. Tulane’s still kicking, though, and who knows what that could mean.

Conference USA

• Auto-Bid Contenders: Florida Atlantic
• In the Mix (High): UAB
• Sweet Spot: North Texas (Lock)
• In the Mix (Low):

North Texas! Another year of the Mean Green.

North Texas plays a very specific kind of basketball, the kind that allows you to fall behind by twenty in the first ten minutes and then close that gap in the second ten minutes and then open it back up in the third ten minutes and then kind of close it in the fourth ten minutes but not fully.

That’s the kind of thing we like to see in our NIT.

In all seriousness, we love North Texas, we think they’re a great team, and we’re pumped to have ‘em. Now let’s hope we get one of these two other jokesters (FAU pranked us by almost losing to Middle Tennessee State, but we aren’t here to talk about Middle Tennessee State).

West Coast Conference

• Auto-Bid Contenders:
• In the Mix (High):
• Sweet Spot:
• In the Mix (Low): Santa Clara, BYU, Loyola Marymount

Atlantic 10

• Auto-Bid Contenders: VCU
• In the Mix (High):
• Sweet Spot:
• In the Mix (Low): Dayton, Saint Louis, Fordham

WAC

• Automatic Bid: Utah Valley
• Sweet Spot: Sam Houston State (Lock)
• Sweet Spot:
• In the Mix (Low):

We were going to talk about Sam Houston State first, but we write the first draft of these at one in the morning and Utah Valley just lost a game they led by 23 with fewer than sixteen minutes left.

Six straight missed free throws at one point.

A four-point play to give Southern Utah the lead.

A rimmed-out layup at the end.

Sometimes, we just need to not be mean.

Sam Houston State, on the other hand? Their Spring FCS “national championship” was Mickey Mouse bullshit, and they can run to the FBS but I still know that doesn’t count. Fake banner. You know it. (Good luck, Bearkats, we really like your scrap and we think Sam Houston was the coolest Texas founding father.)

Sun Belt

• Automatic Bid: Southern Miss
• In the Mix (High):
• Sweet Spot:
• In the Mix (Low): Marshall

We’ve gotten some questions about South Alabama, and we absolutely love getting questions about South Alabama, but unfortunately South Alabama’s only 95^th in KenPom and that’s the best thing they have going for them. If you’re going to have your best thing going for you be KenPom, you really want to be top 70. Great year, but not this year, friends.

Missouri Valley

• Automatic Bid: Bradley

MAC

• Auto-Bid Contenders: Toledo
• In the Mix (High): Kent State
• Sweet Spot:
• In the Mix (Low):

It is officially a one-bid MAC, unless we get a real big surprise concerning Kent State and the NIT Selection Committee. Best read is that the loser’s in. Could get close, though. Especially if it isn’t close.

CAA

• Automatic Bid: Hofstra

ASUN

• Auto-Bid Contenders:
• In the Mix (High):
• Sweet Spot: Liberty (Lock)
• In the Mix (Low):

MAAC

• Auto-Bid Contenders: Iona
• In the Mix (High):
• Sweet Spot:
• In the Mix (Low):

At least in the technical sense, Rick Pitino is still the head coach at Iona.

I like the move, if the St. John’s report is true. I like letting it out now, rather than making your team speculate. They know, you know, nobody needs to say it. Now you just have to lose your conference tournament’s championship game to the last-place team in your conference and you’re in the NIT, competing for your first ever national title.

That’s how it’s done, Rick.

Summit League

• It’s over.

Ivy League

• Auto-Bid Contenders: Yale
• In the Mix (High):
• Sweet Spot:
• In the Mix (Low):

Big West

• Automatic Bid: UC Irvine

Zot.

Big Sky

• Automatic Bid: Eastern Washington

SoCon

• It’s over.

Horizon League

• Automatic Bid: Youngstown State

Big South

• It’s over.

America East

• Auto-Bid Contenders: Vermont
• In the Mix (High):
• Sweet Spot:
• In the Mix (Low):

Patriot League

• It’s over.

MEAC

• Auto-Bid Contenders: Howard
• In the Mix (High):
• Sweet Spot:
• In the Mix (Low):

Howard pulled away from UMES, and now gets one last chance. They’ll play Norfolk State, whom they beat by 20 a week ago. That kind of started their whole blowout habit. Good habit until it’s not. You know what I mean?

Ohio Valley

• Automatic Bid: Morehead State

Southland

• It’s over.

SWAC

• Automatic Bid: Alcorn State

NEC

• It’s over.

**

Ok, I need to skedaddle. There are games happening. We will be back tomorrow morning and throughout the day with last looks at the bubble. Also, watch out for locks on social media. Only ones who could get those today are Clemson, Florida, VCU, Howard, Toledo, Yale, Vermont, and Iona. Meaning: The only possible additional at-large lock today is Clemson. Everyone else is bubbling.