Friends, family, and—as always—the haters:
We got ‘em.
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is coming with us.
There will be plenty to say about the Tar Heels, and about the Michigan Wolverines, and about all 30 of the other beautiful teams in the 2023 NIT field, but we will wait to say that until we have our bracket. For now? Just know how excited we are, UNC. And how loved you are.
Let’s talk about what went down.
Helpful links:
- NIT Bracketology: Our latest projection of the eventual field, from just moments ago.
- NIT Bracketology Rundown: First Four Out, Next Four Out, and assorted complications.
- NIT Bubble Watch: This page will help guide you to the most recent Bubble Watch, in case you’re viewing one from a previous day.
- NIT Blog Posts: This will take you to every blog post talking NIT, a collection which includes our daily previews of the action at hand, usually published shortly after this.
Conference by conference:
ACC
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Pitt, Clemson, NC State
- Sweet Spot: UNC (Lock)
- In the Mix (Low): Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
The Tar Heels are a lock.
It isn’t all that surprising that UNC made the NIT. I mean, yes, it’s historically surprising, but there’s an element the press isn’t talking about where the press was just wrong. They’re the ones who voted UNC #1 in the preseason AP Poll. That wasn’t UNC. Top ten would’ve been reasonable, and then not historic. Instead they went #1 because UNC managed to upset Baylor last March.
What is surprising is how firmly UNC did it. We are extremely hesitant to label teams locks, but they left us no choice. They were our lockiest lock so far. And what’s more? Virginia’s not that good. Those guys are going to be an underdog against Duke tomorrow, if that’s the game. It’s not like UNC went down swinging against Kansas or UCLA. UNC went down swinging against a team that isn’t much better than Rutgers.
In the other games, the biggest news was that Clemson is alive again, pounding NC State into a pulp to put both of them into bubble conversations right when we put their files in what we thought were their respective final piles (#FilesInPiles). I’m not entirely sure what happened. I think the ACC might be cursed. I think Coach K might have cursed the ACC. Nobody can be sustainedly good anymore.
Teams can, however, be consistently bad, and Pitt left little doubt as to who they are, losing palindromically to Duke by a final mark of 96–69. That’s three duds in their last four outings. Played fine against Miami in the middle there, but Miami wouldn’t look this good if they weren’t in the ACC. If Miami was in the Big 12, they’d be remarkably close to Oklahoma in terms of results.
Speaking of Miami, they snuck by Wake Forest, but the Deacs might have done enough, especially with spots opening up elsewhere. Long three days ahead as Steve Forbes looks for his second straight invite.
Bottom line? We could lock Pitt in today, conceivably, and we’re curious where better bracketologists than we have NC State. Clemson is in the thick of the bubble again. Good for them. On the other end? Virginia Tech in, Wake out seems to be where it’s going, but there’s time left.
Big Ten
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Wisconsin, Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State, Iowa
- Sweet Spot: Michigan (Lock)
- In the Mix (Low): Nebraska
After weeks spent heading almost ceaselessly in this direction, Michigan is indeed a lock, going out like a lamb against Rutgers. This is terrible news for Rutgers, of course—enough to make a Knight turn Scarlet—but that’s Rutgers’s problem. They’re probably missing the NIT. Actions have consequences.
Speaking of consequences, Penn State beat Illinois and Ohio State beat Iowa. This latter one is one-sided—Ohio State can’t make the NIT without the abolition of the Invisible .500 Rule—but it does leave us at least looking at Iowa. We aren’t doing anything about them, but we’re looking. Get a few bid thieves, get a little run by Clemson, maybe we start to talk. Ditto Illinois, honestly.
Penn State? They’re probably gone. But good luck to them. If this is what they want, who are we to hold our old love back? Also, Micah Shrewsberry’s head is delightfully round and shiny. Like Casey Alexander’s. Like he is a basketball hiding in a human cranium. You can’t be upset with a guy like that.
Bottom line? We probably won’t lock Wisconsin in until Sunday, but it could come sooner depending what happens around them. We’re scared of that win at Marquette, basically, after the cartel took Notre Dame last year based on the win over Kentucky. We don’t think any of Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State, or Iowa will make the NIT, but they’re close enough to not cross off entirely. We have Nebraska very close to the bubble. Just need a few more spots to open up, Huskers.
Big 12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Oklahoma State
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
In sad news, Texas Tech will reportedly not be playing in this year’s NIT, evidently choosing to not fill out the paperwork allowing them to be considered. Mark Adams stepped down today, ending that saga, and as we noted yesterday, players have already begun announcing their intent to transfer. Sad news. Texas Tech has a great fanbase which once made a bonfire out of those scooters that quietly brain-damage so many would-be rideshare passengers.
On the upside, we now have an additional NIT spot, which is enormous news for programs like Virginia Tech and Seton Hall and Santa Clara and perhaps even Wake Forest or Nebraska. Also, another home game opens up. Another team gets to stay home! Err… Gets to play basketball at home.
Oklahoma State went down to Kansas, as expected, and we remain unconvinced of their NIT worthiness but the industry is trying to force them upon us. We’ll keep considering.
SEC
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Auburn
- Sweet Spot: Florida
- In the Mix (Low):
The big one in Nashville came first, as Mississippi State escaped Florida in overtime. Florida’s lock status is under consideration. They’re definitely close. Really got their feet back under them.
Mississippi State? Probably gone. And with Arkansas definitely gone, beating Auburn, and Auburn also probably gone, playing Arkansas close, that leaves us with likely just the Gators and the Vanderbilts, the Vanderbilts who beat LSU. Keep on marching, you train folks. Keep on chugging? Is “chugging along” a train reference? Is Purdue secretly a Vanderbilt exclave? Same colors, big train theme in some regard…………….give it a think.
Bottom line? Vanderbilt’s in a little bit of Upper Bubble danger, but lose today and we’ll probably lock them in. Might also lock Florida in today. They’re next up of the teams who’ve finished playing.
Big East
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Providence
- Sweet Spot: Villanova
- In the Mix (Low): Seton Hall, St. John’s
We really thought we were getting Providence for a minute there.
Down as many as 26 points, Providence rallied to get the game as close as five. That isn’t all that close, but compared to 26?
The Friars seem to be losing the narrative battle. They’re decently deserving, but they just don’t have an NIT reputation. For shame.
St. John’s almost got itself into the thick of things, taking Marquette to overtime in what looked like it could be the resurrection of the GOATst. Instead, they’re waiting ‘til Sunday, and they’re hoping on a whole lot of luck. Ninth team out right now.
Villanova did not put up much of a fight against Creighton, which should be fine but does leave us hesitant to lock them up. Too much time remaining, too close to the edge. Might lock them tomorrow, but not today.
Pac-12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Oregon, Arizona State, USC
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Colorado, Washington State, Utah
Oof. Arizona State. Why???
The Sun Devils beat USC while others on the bubble fell apart, and now they’re in trouble at the least and potentially done. That’s really going to hurt our attendance dreams. Need you now, Nevada. Need you more than we’ve ever needed something from Reno before. (And we’ve relied on Reno a lot in our lives.)
The worst part is that USC isn’t getting sent back in an exchange. Or so it looks right now, anyway.
Oregon edged Washington State after a gutty Cougar comeback, leaving both a little tenuous. Oregon has more damage they could do, Washington State’s playing the waiting game. We’re a little surprised Washington State isn’t safer in our model, but the question is whether the committee cared more about NET last year or KenPom, and we don’t know the answer to that because the two are usually so similar. If it’s KenPom, Washington State’s definitely ours, but if it’s NET, it’s a little riskier.
Utah’s interesting, but probably isn’t coming our way. We’ll include them on our final possibilities list, I’d imagine, but we don’t think we’re getting games in Salt Lake. Only Orem.
Mountain West
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Nevada, Utah State
- Sweet Spot: New Mexico (Lock)
- In the Mix (Low): San Jose State, UNLV
Hold freakin’ everything.
First of all, we will probably get Nevada.
Secondly…TIM MILES!!!!!!
The next hot coaching name (again) is the smiliest man in the business, the man for whom we swooned in 2019, the guy who puts the joy in San Jose. Tim Miles, the friendliest Spartan you ever did see, has SJSU into the Mountain West semifinals and realistically close to the NIT.
We are jazzed.
Other action? Less jazzy. Boise State held off UNLV in overtime, leaving the Runnin’ Rebels chasing us but with no games left to play. They’ll be sweating on Sunday, probably as less than a 50/50 shot. Utah State did away with New Mexico. At least we were able to lock the Lobos in.
Colorado State went down to San Diego State, and just an acknowledgment that we had not looked at Colorado State’s overall win-loss record and completely missed their sub-.500 status. We just assumed that because they were playing in the Mountain West and were kind of decent, that wasn’t a concern. Turns out it was. Our culpa. Yet more evidence the Mountain West is better than the ACC.
The American
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Memphis
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane
The American Tournament began (that isn’t the NIT, the NIT is The Greatest American Tournament), and UCF didn’t look good but did win. Survive and advance, they say.
Wichita State’s still hanging around the edges too. Unless they’re below .500 and we haven’t realized it, which we’re now realizing we should probably check once we’re done here.
Conference USA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Florida Atlantic
- In the Mix (High): North Texas
- Sweet Spot: UAB
- In the Mix (Low):
Things started with the big three here, each of them dumping on a lesser foe. And I mean dumping. They all won by more than twenty. (None by more than thirty, though. Is Conference USA soft?)
Middle Tennessee State piped up, beating Charlotte to become FAU’s next opponent, but we refuse to speak of them again after what happened last time. No, we will not speak of Middle Tennessee State unless they beat FAU today. Definitely won’t include them in this blurb.
North Texas is starting to look kind of appetizing to a certain Selection Cartel, I would guess. Be careful, Mean Green. Be careful.
Oh, duh, FAU. FAU’s NIT chance really revolves around losing badly to Middle Tennessee State, about whom we are not talking. Not even thinking about them.
West Coast Conference
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Santa Clara, BYU, Loyola Marymount
Atlantic 10
- Auto-Bid Contenders: VCU
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Dayton, Saint Louis, Fordham
Well that was fun.
If the A-10 has haters (and there are so many sports fans that this is a numbers game, so we would guess it does), the haters were silenced. Sure, VCU/Davidson wasn’t fun. But SLU finally did the thing we’ve been telling every Lower Bubble team to do, beating the everloving piss out of someone, and Dayton and Fordham each fended off a feisty Big Fiver. Semifinals on Saturday after everyone catches their breath. (The A-10 likes to wink at fate, giving a day of rest to any hypothetical team who wins each of the first three days. That, or the Nets are home tonight or something.)
WAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Utah Valley
- In the Mix (High): Sam Houston State
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
These guys both won fairly easily, and with Southern Utah beating Utah Tech, we also don’t have a WACky auto-bid situation where a postseason-ineligible team could win this tournament. This leaves us with approximately a 1-in-4 chance of a two-bid WAC, by the way. So…possible. Might be fun. Think about it with me.
Sun Belt
- Automatic Bid: Southern Miss
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Marshall
Missouri Valley
- Automatic Bid: Bradley
MAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Toledo
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Kent State
Toledo pounded Miami (back to our earlier point about the ACC), and Kent State pounded NIU. Akron pounded Buffalo, so they’re still lurking out there trying to make it interesting as well. Lights, camera…you know the rest.
Kent State’s at-large chance is a matter of interest in this space, and we’d say it looks pretty strong right now. Ohio’s a halfway decent team (only halfway, though), and if they win that they’d most likely play Toledo, who’s respectable. Neither would be that bad a loss. Kent State might be in ok shape heading into today.
CAA
- Automatic Bid: Hofstra
ASUN
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot: Liberty (Lock)
- In the Mix (Low):
MAAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Iona
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
We got some wildness in the MAAC, Marist downing Quinnipiac to go with Saint Peter’s elimination of Rider yesterday. With Niagara beating Siena, Iona’s playing the 5-seed and the winner’s playing the 10 or 11-seed. In other words? We are probably only getting one Pitino this year.
Summit League
- It’s over.
Ivy League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Yale
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Big West
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UC-Irvine
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
The big boys started play here, and everything went more or less expected, right down to Fullerton and Hawaii playing the best game of the day. Irvine’s going to play Fullerton tonight, and UCSB will play Riverside after that. Not the path the Anteaters were looking for, but they do remain the favorite.
Big Sky
- Automatic Bid: Eastern Washington
SoCon
- It’s over.
Horizon League
- Automatic Bid: Youngstown State
Big South
- It’s over.
America East
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Vermont
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Patriot League
- It’s over.
MEAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Howard
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
With Norfolk State winning, another big threat to beat Howard remains in play, and with UMES beating Morgan State, it’s a tough draw today too. They’re probably ending up in the NIT, but they’re also just two tossups away from missing out on all the fun.
Ohio Valley
- Automatic Bid: Morehead State
Southland
- It’s over.
SWAC
- Automatic Bid: Alcorn State
NEC
- It’s over.
**
Overall, we’ve got eleven bids locked up, meaning 21 are still in play.
That’s a whole lot of bids.
