NIT Bubble Watch: Locks of Love

This NIT Bubble Watch is for Thursday, March 14^th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.

I didn’t realize how much of a thrill I was going to get from calling teams locks. I think last year I was maybe a little too mathematical about it? Too worried about the dance video tribute I needed to prepare in case Iona lost in the MAAC Tournament? Regardless, I had a blast yesterday yelling LOCK and slamming my hand down on the armrest of my couch. I got to do that four times! It was a good day. Today should be even better.

Of course, the lock is a decree of joy. The lock is a hallowed thing. Being locked into the NIT is like being locked into Heaven. You are about to learn a whole lot more about your own spiritual beliefs. To these four teams…congratulations. We could not be more excited to have you here.

• LOCK: VIRGINIA TECH
• LOCK: BUTLER
• LOCK: SYRACUSE
• LOCK: UCF*

(By the way, if anyone declines an NIT bid this year and it isn’t for a good reason like “that coach who was really lovable last year turned out to be a weirdo in a bad way and all our players want to transfer now,” I’m going to curse that school, that program, or prominent supporters of that team. Voodoo. Witchcraft. Other mysterious things. I will be publicly placing curses if anyone tries what UNC tried last year. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that. I don’t really think it will.)

Now. NIT Bubble Watch. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.

Guidelines:

• Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
• Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
• Just Right: >50% NIT probability
• Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)

Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture are combined at the bottom. Like a big unwieldy knot where you didn’t know what you were doing so you just kept tying.

*Note from Joe: UCF’s only 99.9% NIT-likely, per our model, but I have given Stu my blessing as he continues to call the Knights an NIT lock. We can take the 1-in-1,000 chance of him looking like more of an idiot than he already does with the hat and the sign and the chronically ripped pants.

ACC

• Too Hot: Virginia
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: NC State, Pitt, Florida State, Wake Forest, Boston College
• LOCKS: VIRGINIA TECH, SYRACUSE

Yesterday, we outlined who we needed to win each game to give ourselves an eight-bid ACC. We almost got it! The only team that didn’t do their part—Notre Dame lost to Wake Forest—left their vanquisher still with a real NIT chance. The loser of Wake and Pitt should be an NIT lock. The winner might still make it themselves, reuniting with us on the other side, Gandalf-style.

Shoutout to Florida State and Boston College, who both played remarkably well compared to their usual play and are much livelier NIT bid contenders because of it. Shoutout to Virginia Tech and Syracuse. The 1973 and 1995 champs. The 1981 runners up. The team who brought us Boeheim v. Greensboro in that fated 2017 NIT. We’re thrilled.

Today:

• North Carolina vs. Florida State
• Pitt vs. Wake Forest
• Duke vs. NC State
• Virginia vs. Boston College

We went over the terms for Wake and Pitt: It’s a loser stays kind of game, though Pitt has a better chance of still making the NIT if they’re the one who wins. Wake might need this loss. For FSU and NC State, had more bubble teams lost yesterday, the stakes would be lower. But few bubble teams lost yesterday. Very, very few. Overall, I’d say the Noles and Wolfpack should just try to keep it respectable. Groomsman rules pre-ceremony if the ceremony’s not in a nice place.

Boston College…man. John Templon, the other big NIT bracketologist, has had the Eagles in his field for longer than our model has, but our model’s come around. The question is how bubbly BC is. Do they need to beat Virginia? We don’t know. But we’d recommend BC do that. Especially because that could get Virginia down into the NIT. Let’s chant it. Half note, half note, three quarters, quarter-note rest. Fast tempo.

Eight Bid A-C-C!

Eight Bid A-C-C!

Great work. You got the hang of that well. What, your boss is bothered by you chanting in your cubicle? Sounds like a perfect opportunity to teach them about the NIT.

Big East

• Too Hot: Seton Hall
• Too Cold: Xavier
• Just Right: Providence, Villanova, St. John’s
• LOCK: BUTLER

Villanova, good god.

I do think DePaul deserves more credit than they got for last night. It’s so easy to quit when you’ve gone 0–20 in conference play, and sometimes, a team looks bad because the other team played well. That said, Villanova looked like a clogged toilet right up until the second Justin Moore stepped in with the plunger. (Suggestion for Jon Rothstein: Call Moore the plumber. Because he will flush that shit.) Great work, Wildcats. Now make sure everybody knows Tyler Kolek isn’t playing tonight. Don’t let them take you away from us.

In other Madison Square Garden action, Providence completed the Ed Cooley sweep, while Xavier survived a tight one with Butler, keeping the Musketeers alive while sending us our darling Butler Blue IV, arguably the greatest bulldog to ever grace a basketball court. I hope Butler makes the NIT Final Four. I want to scritch that head so badly.

Today:

• UConn vs. Xavier
• Seton Hall vs. St. John’s
• Creighton vs. Providence
• Marquette vs. Villanova

If I understand correctly, St. John’s is probably out of the NIT if they win, and we might not get Seton Hall back if they lose. So, if you happen to be among those rooting for Indiana State to make the NIT, host Indiana in the first round, and turn every child in the Hoosier State into a lifelong NIT fan, you should probably be cheering for St. John’s to win. St. John’s has enough titles, and if they make the Final Four during a year it’s not at MSG? That will be awkward. Good luck, Johnnies. We’re all rooting against you. Meaning, we’re pulling for you to win. Losers.

Xavier’s situation is this:

If Xavier beats UConn, they’re going to finish with at least a .500 record, assuaging that concern with their at-large candidacy. Given they’re a 484-point underdog, the upset would also potentially get them a home game.

More realistically, if Xavier passes Providence in the NET rankings, stays ahead of Butler, and gets one or both of Villanova and St. John’s to make the NCAA Tournam*nt, Xavier is in via the automatic bid. Even if they have a losing record. This would also get them a home game! I’m fired up. Are you fired up? Is your mom fired up? Good. We’re all fired up.

Providence could cast some NIT doubt with the upset of Creighton, but it’s not sounding like that alone would be enough to take them out of the field? I’m not sure. I’ll wait for everyone to yell about it for a bit and then simmer down. (Providence is another team who could give us Indiana State.)

Had Villanova made DePaul look more like DePaul, it seems we would have had a contentious consensus but one with Villanova very, very much on that upper NIT bubble. Instead, Villanova made DePaul look like Seton Hall, and while that’s still not great, it leaves us with Villanova maybe needing to win two more, not one, to miss the NIT. That’s if the NCAA *ournament doesn’t quit caring about games that happen after noon on Friday because they hate basketball and want Buzz Williams to suffer. If the NCAA *ournament does quit caring, if the demoralization of working for such a non-historic, not-selective tournament gets to them? Villanova’s almost one hundred percent with us.

Big Ten

• Too Hot: Michigan State
• Too Cold: Maryland, Penn State, Minnesota
• Just Right: Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana

I spend a lot of time thinking about the NIT, and one consequence of that is that I spend a lot of time thinking about what would be best for the NIT. Which is why I’ve gotten to the point of identifying Scott Van Pelt as America’s closest current figure to Walter Cronkite, and why I would personally be thrilled if his beloved Terrapins snuck into this tournament. The blowout of Rutgers was a good first step.

Elsewhere, Penn State’s back in the NIT picture, possibly ending Juwan Howard’s time at Michigan (I haven’t seen an announcement either way) and setting up a B1G day on B1G Network:

• Michigan State vs. Minnesota
• Wisconsin vs. Maryland
• Iowa vs. Ohio State
• Indiana vs. Penn State

NIT implications in all of these. Let’s go through them:

Minnesota and Michigan State are both simply trying to keep their NIT flames from burning out. The difference is that Minnesota could win tomorrow and maybe even Saturday and keep playing their way in, while Michigan State’s best hope is to lose by one million points while saying offensive things into hot mics about the partners and children of that other tournament’s selection committee. It’s an untested strategy, but there’s only one way to find out if it works.

Maryland’s path’s a lot like Xavier’s. If they beat Wisconsin, they’re back to finishing at least .500 and they’ve got an otherwise worthy résumé. If they lose to Wisconsin, they need to find a way to be the second Big Ten team out of the other tournament, as measured by NET. The best way for that to happen is for Ohio State or Iowa to go on a run.

Speaking of Ohio State and Iowa, we’ve got a lock party in the 5:30 hour in Minneapolis. The loser’s coming with us TONIGHT. (The winner’s probably coming with us tomorrow.) These players play all season in hopes of an NIT appearance. In nine hours, for one of these teams, that dream becomes reality.

In the nightcap, we’ve got a lower bubble tilt. Indiana might be ok with a loss, but we wouldn’t recommend testing it, especially after a day on which lower NIT bubble teams went 10–1 (and people say the NIT’s for losers—*scoffs!*). Penn State, like Maryland and Xavier, needs a win to get themselves at least a .500 finish. We don’t know if the NIT committee will take sub-.500 teams as at-larges this year or not, but we err on the side of not thinking they will.

If Penn State does win, they’re still probably only on the bubble. They don’t have the numbers Maryland has. But they’d at least be on the bubble, enjoying the sensation of hope for one more day. If they lose, it’s almost certainly curtains.

Atlantic 10

• Too Hot:
• Too Cold: Duquesne, UMass
• Just Right: Richmond, Loyola (IL), VCU

It was another day of A-10 silliness, and while St. Bonaventure won, the narrowness of it and the wins everybody else turned in left the Bonnies sliding out of our picture. They needed more than a last-second escape from La Salle.

With George Mason going down, Saint Joe’s theoretically still has a chance (as do the Bonnies), but they (like the Bonnies) are not in our picture (they’re out of it, that’s why we’re not talking about them here or anything).

VCU survived Fordham, and Duquesne kept Saint Louis at bay. Two bubble teams hanging around. Big day starting right now (timestamp: 10:28 AM Texas Time):

• Richmond vs. Saint Joseph’s
• UMass vs. VCU
• Loyola Chicago vs. St. Bonaventure
• Dayton vs. Duquesne

Richmond is the only A-10 team with a path to NIT lockdom today. Loyola’s probably in if they lose, but we wouldn’t chance it if we were them. The rest? All lower bubble teams, to varying extents. Duquesne is the tipping point right now.

Big 12

• Too Hot: Oklahoma, TCU
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: Kansas State, Cincinnati
• LOCK: UCF

We aren’t ready to write TCU off just yet, and we aren’t ready to write Oklahoma off either, but both of them are looking pretty non-NIT right now. Bad win by TCU. Good work by Porter Moser’s team keeping the dream alive.

In the other three games, intrigue reigned. We had UCF clinching a place at the NIT table. We had reigning MVP Tylor Perry threatening his own NIT case with a strong second half to oust Texas. We had Cincinnati laying the wood to a Kansas team who had no intention of competing. The result? We’ve got K-State and Cincy both pushing on the bubble’s door, leading to a very wild scenario in which both make it and Oklahoma State somehow gets an NIT automatic bid. We don’t *think* this will happen. But we are often surprised.

Today:

• Houston vs. TCU
• Iowa State vs. Kansas State
• Baylor vs. Cincinnati

K-State and Cincinnati could each lock themselves into the NIT with a loss, again unless I really misunderstand something. TCU’s best hope is the approach we outlined above for Michigan State, but that’s something we think would work better against Minnesota than against the best team in the country.

Pac-12

• Too Hot: Colorado
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: Oregon, Washington, Utah

*Jean-Ralphio voice*

Mike Hopkins won’t coach if Washington makes the N-I-Teeeee-eeee!

Washington did end up losing to USC, which is too bad for a few reasons but mostly because it means we probably won’t see Washington wear their mountainous shorts in the NIT’s first round. I think those are only for home games, and with the Huskies falling behind Oregon in the NET rankings, the home game is looking unlikelier. Washington, in fact, is on the NIT bubble now in a way they weren’t before. Too many teams won. They were not one of them.

Utah beat Arizona State, doing what Villanova should have done, but with still no Rollie Worster, it’s looking like only a matter of time before we lock up the Utes. To that end:

• Oregon vs. UCLA
• Colorado vs. Utah

Oregon could give the home game back with a loss, but they’d also be an NIT lock. Decisions, decisions. Colorado’s trying to play their way back into this. Talk about fear and loathing.

SEC

• Too Hot: Mississippi State
• Too Cold: Georgia
• Just Right: Mississippi, LSU

Like St. Bonaventure before them, Arkansas played badly enough in a win to vanish from this space. We will turn back to the Hogs tomorrow if results break correctly today. Meanwhile, Georgia stayed alive, through little fault of their own.

Today:

• LSU vs. Mississippi State
• Texas A&M vs. Mississippi
• Florida vs. Georgia

If Mississippi State loses, we won’t call them an NIT lock, but we’ll call them an NIT something. If Texas A&M loses, the same is true. Mississippi? Amazingly enough, Ole Miss is close enough to the lower NIT bubble that they might not be a lock if they lose. They could fall past the NIT. If Mississippi State smokes LSU and Florida beats Georgia, then yes, we could lock up the Rebels, but that’s all three games going a certain way. Make your loss convincing, Mississippi. (Or, win and lose tomorrow.)

I don’t know if Georgia has a path to an at-large invitation or just the automatic bid, but LSU has a path to both. Paradoxically, though, LSU’s automatic bid path worsens if they knock Mississippi State into the NIT.

A big mess all around.

American Athletic Conference

• Too Hot:
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU

The second round:

• Memphis vs. Wichita State
• SMU vs. Temple

I’m pretty hesitant to say this, because the industry implies you should never trust Memphis, but I think we’ll lock the Tigers if they lose to Wichita State. That said…*starts to smile*…it’d sure be a…*puts on a big ol’ shit-eating grin*…Shocker.

SMU shouldn’t lose this one. Would need a lot of help if they lose. And not just to stay safe from the bookies who need Temple to shave those points.

Missouri Valley

• Too Hot:
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: Bradley, Indiana State

It’s happened. Indiana State’s NIT probability is up over 50%. Is our model really good at this? No. Is it over 50% by a lot? No. But that’s not totally meaningless, guys. It moved upwards! Something good happened!

Mountain West

• Too Hot: Colorado State
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: UNLV, New Mexico

New Mexico smoked Air Force, but they’re holding on. Colorado State’s probably toast after hanging on against Tim Miles, but they’re possible enough to stay on our radar. Like TCU.

• UNLV vs. San Diego State
• Nevada vs. Colorado State
• Boise State vs. New Mexico

UNLV finished ahead of San Diego State in Mountain West conference play and will not be an NIT lock if they lose this game. I would like an oral history of this Mountain West season, and I will revolt if it is about the #6BidMWC (though that does help the Indiana State movement, and a few others).

UNLV’s probably safe with a loss, but they could use the win, with little downside and a slim chance at a home game. New Mexico needs to lose and then hope. Colorado State needs to lose and then hope and then maybe slip somebody a thousand dollars (not me, I have no impact here, I am but an NIT fanatic).

Ivy League

• Too Hot: Princeton
• Too Cold: Cornell
• Just Right:

Not good for Cornell and Yale to see those teams go 10–1. Not good at all.

The Rest of the NIT Picture

• Too Hot: Grand Canyon
• Too Cold: San Francisco
• Just Right: Appalachian State

Not good for App State to see those teams go 10–1 either, and really not good for San Francisco. Good, though, that McNeese won. For NIT bubble teams. Terrible for McNeese. They have to play in the NCAA *ournament now!

No Grand Canyon action until tomorrow.

**

Total count:

• Too hot – 10 teams (11 yesterday)
• Too cold – 9 teams (16 yesterday)
• Just right – 29 teams (31 yesterday)
• Locks – 4 teams (0 yesterday)

There are too many teams with good NIT chances. 34 of them. A new record.

Somebody’s about to get their heart broken.