This NIT Bubble Watch is for Wednesday, March 13th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
Champ Week is best when it gets a little weird. The San Framcoscp thing on Monday night. Monte riding a kayak down the stairs at Idaho Central Arena. Those bastards who run the MAAC (I love you, MAAC) making poor Baloo stay up way past his bedtime. The barefoot A-10 fans.
Am I going somewhere with this? No. Let’s talk about the NIT.
Welcome to NIT Bubble Watch. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture are combined at the bottom. Like a big ol’ set of webbed toes.
ACC
- Too Hot: Virginia
- Too Cold: Florida State, Boston College
- Just Right: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest
Louisville’s Kenny Payne experiment is reportedly done, and it may have ended with NC State getting across the make–the–NIT finish line. TBD. Later, Boston College took care of irrelevant college basketball program Miami and pushed themselves that little bit deeper into the NIT conversation. Today:
- Virginia Tech vs. Florida State
- Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame
- Syracuse vs. NC State
- Clemson vs. Boston College
If we’re going to get an eight-bid ACC (this would be aesthetically pleasing, with one in each of the eight little four-team pods in the bracket), what we most want today is wins by FSU, ND, NC State, and BC. Florida State’s not definitively out with a loss, but they’d be in a lot of trouble. Wake Forest is a little too close to the upper bubble for my comfort, and with Pitt up next for the Deacs, the opportunity they gain by seizing this opportunity is dangerous. NC State has a little ways to go to get to safety. Boston College needs a win exactly like this one to make us like their chances. We could conceivably hand out NIT locks today to all three of Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest in the ACC alone. What a life.
Atlantic Coast Conference, you have been a friend to us this year, even if our temptation has been to make fun of your most delusional mouthpieces. Good luck today. We’ll be with you all the way.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Michigan State
- Too Cold: Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State
- Just Right: Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State
“It’s a long way to the top if you want to rock and roll.”
A friend included this in a text to me yesterday, and it wasn’t about anything other than a song, but I think it’s a good message for this Big Ten. NIT glory doesn’t come easy. Like your ancestors farming soybeans and smelting steel, you have to put in the muscle, even if you’re now a much more white-collar bunch. The games:
- Maryland vs. Rutgers
- Penn State vs. Michigan
Maryland needs this one and then either a whole lot of help or one more. Rutgers might need to win three. Penn State’s in the same position as Maryland but a worse version of it. Except. NET likes blowouts, and while we’re always a little scared Michigan might remember how much talent they once had, it would be very like this Michigan team to go quietly. (Would also be very like this Michigan team if we got a silly, believable rumor out of the week, like that Juwan Howard was telling his guys not to flush at the Target Center because the Timberwolves once disrespected him.)
Big East
- Too Hot: Seton Hall
- Too Cold: Xavier
- Just Right: Butler, Providence, Villanova, St. John’s
It’s days like today that I miss Madison Square Garden. Xavier playing Butler? Could’ve been us.
- Butler vs. Xavier
- Providence vs. Georgetown
- Villanova vs. DePaul
Xavier really needs this win. Probably curtains if they don’t get it. Might need one more win even if they do get it! Sean Miller’s big moment has finally arrived. Butler, meanwhile, is another candidate to be our first NIT lock.
In the other games, Villanova and Providence are also chasing lock status, though the allure of a potential NIT 1-seed makes it hard to ask too much of them.
Big 12
- Too Hot: Oklahoma
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: UCF, Kansas State, Cincinnati, TCU
UCF throttled Oklahoma State and Cincinnati came back against West Virginia, keeping intrigue at the door in Kansas City. Loaded slate today:
- BYU vs. UCF
- TCU vs. Oklahoma
- Texas vs. Kansas State
- Kansas vs. Cincinnati
The big one is Oklahoma and TCU. Porter Moser might be pulling an Ed Cooley, TCU is dangerously close to the bubble, and every game could be Oklahoma’s last in the Big 12, which makes me feel absolutely nothing as far as basketball goes but is a really easy thing to drop into a list when that list only has two items and you want a third.
Kansas State is chasing a lock. UCF has made it to where they’re chasing a lock. Cincinnati? Well, they’re chasing a lock, but playing a Kansas team lacking Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson, the Bearcats are a favorite tonight. Could…could Cincinnati miss the NIT if they win this one and beat Baylor?
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Duquesne, UMass, George Mason, St. Bonaventure
- Just Right: Richmond, Loyola (IL), VCU
The A-10 is just so funny. I don’t know how I watched Archie Miller coach Indiana without cracking up all the time. The man is a comedic force.
- George Mason vs. Saint Joseph’s
- VCU vs. Fordham
- St. Bonaventure vs. La Salle
- Duquesne vs. Saint Louis
There were reports yesterday of Joe Lunardi sightings in Brooklyn. Are these teams on the NCAA Tourna*ent bubble? No, no. Joe Lunardi’s just a Saint Joe’s guy. Possibly even by birth. (This is not a messiah joke I think Lunardi was raised in the Saint Joe’s section of the Philly world.)
The Hawk Will Never Die, they say, but if it goes down today, it’d go a long way towards getting George Mason’s NIT ship back afloat. USA Network. For America.
VCU’s still in danger, needing at least this win to get across that line. For their sake, let’s hope Kyle Rose doesn’t do what he did to GMU’s NIT dreams a few weeks ago.
St. Bonaventure isn’t entirely out of it, but they have a needle to thread where if they get close to the NIT, they’ll start dealing with NCAA Tour*ament temptation. This is what the sirens were based off of in the Odyssey. Time is not linear.
In the nightcap, we either get Travis Ford’s grand finale or Travis Ford wrecking another conference rival’s NIT case. The man is a monster. (And no, we don’t have inside info, but I feel comfortable calling something a grand finale because it always leaves room for an encore.) (Oh, also. Duquesne isn’t safe with a win. Might need one more or some help. We’re on the Duquesne Train, though. Save us a seat.)
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington, Utah
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
USC is making noi-oiiiiiiise!
What a day:
- Washington vs. USC
- Utah vs. Arizona State
Bronny James, Isaiah Collier, DJ Rodman, and Boogie Ellis are playing Mike Hopkins’s team, and Mike Hopkins has already been fired. Somehow, those first four dudes and that bastard Andy Enfield are the ones trying to ruin Washington’s postseason hopes, and not the other way around. Also, USC is favored. Also, the game tips at noon Las Vegas time. Also? USC has this tiny little NIT case where if they do win, we’ll definitely be talking about them tomorrow. And for one last also: Oregon has a large rooting interest in Washington going down, because if Oregon passes Washington in the NET rankings, it probably means a first-round NIT home game for the Ducks rather than a possible flight to Mississippi or Rhode Island. Washington would only be on the bubble with a loss, far from out of it, but this is the Game of the NITe of the Afternoon, to say the least.
Utah can lock themselves into the NIT by losing to Bobby Hurley.
Sorry.
Jon Rothstein just called.
Utah can lock themselves into the NIT by losing to Bobby ******* Hurley.
SEC
- Too Hot: Mississippi State
- Too Cold: Georgia, Arkansas
- Just Right: Mississippi, LSU
Mississippi is playing badly enough and Texas A&M is playing well enough that the race for the SEC’s two NIT automatic bids is, against all odds, dramatic. Today:
- Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt
- Georgia vs. Missouri
So what we’re dealing with in the SEC is that Mississippi State is 41st in the NET, Texas A&M is 47th, Mississippi is 90th, LSU is 93rd, Georgia is 101st, and Arkansas is 109th. Theoretically, that bottom group should be packed more tightly than the top group, because of stratification at each end of Division I, but we don’t know if that’s really the case because NET only publishes rankings, not the score or rating associated with those rankings. We are dealing with a situation where a black-box formula and the whims of a different tournament’s selection committee determine by how many points Arkansas must beat Vanderbilt, by how many points Georgia must beat Missouri, and whether TCU must beat Oklahoma in an entirely different conference for LSU to feel comfortable with their NIT chance. The new system has a lot of haters, but this situation rules.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU
Mountain West
- Too Hot: Colorado State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: UNLV, New Mexico
The troops are back:
- Colorado State vs. San Jose State
- New Mexico vs. Air Force
First: Colorado State could make themselves really interesting by losing to Tim Miles. We love this game. I think it’s on Mountain West Network? Last day of Mountain West Network games of the year? Let’s remind each other, then, that for most if not all of the country, Mountain West Network is just the Mountain West’s website. I love this all so much. Now:
New Mexico famously invigorated their NIT push with a loss to Air Force in Albuquerque back towards the end of February (also called, two and a half weeks ago). Will the Falcons finish the job? UNM’s not out with a win, but a loss would lock them in. *guttural noise conveying excitement and glee*
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley
Ivy League
- Too Hot: Princeton
- Too Cold: Cornell, Yale
- Just Right:
The NIT Delta, Fertile but Hard to Traverse
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: San Francisco, UC Irvine
- Just Right: Appalachian State
McNeese won last night, and I don’t think that surprises anybody, but I hope Lamar has a fan who’s really bummed about it today. Lamar deserves that kind of fan. (I really need to remind myself who this Lamar guy is in the Texas independence story. His name is everywhere. I can tell you plenty about Sam Houston, but Lamar? I’m not even 100% sure that’s his last name.)
- McNeese vs. Nicholls
One last chance for Will Wade to get back to the NIT. Lose, he’s in. Win, he’s out. What a perfect Louisiana man Will Wade is. Nuts that he’s from the other side of the South.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 11 teams (10 yesterday)
- Too cold – 16 teams (16 yesterday)
- Just right – 31 teams (30 yesterday)
I’m so excited. Twelve potential locks, if I’m counting them correctly. Twelve! One for each disciple! (That is a messiah joke.)
(An earlier version of this post said Mike Hopkins was reportedly fired. That firing was confirmed on Friday. Apologies for missing the official statement.)
