Hibachi chefs need magic eggs. Baseball players need ballcaps. The NIT Bubble needs watching.
Some ground rules:
- All category choices are subjective. I’m picking who goes where, and I might not be consistent. If you want to fight about it, you hopefully don’t know where to find me.
- All due respect should be given to Eamonn Brennan, who to my knowledge is the first Bubble Watcher. To better fit the NIT bubble, we’ve abandoned his “Lock, Should Be In, Work to Do” dichotomy, but his work set the standard here.
- Nobody raise their voice at Mick Cronin.
This is current as of Friday afternoon, February 20th.
Atlantic 10
- Off our radar: Saint Louis
- Good position: VCU, Dayton, George Mason
- On our radar: George Washington, Davidson, Duquesne, Rhode Island
Sad about Saint Louis getting this good? Me too. Thankfully, the A-10 still provides.
ACC
- Off our radar: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, NC State, North Carolina, Clemson, SMU, Miami
- Good position: Cal, Stanford
- Coach might get fired: Syracuse
- Ways might be mutually parted: Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
- Bad record, bad team: Florida State, Notre Dame
- These are technically basketball teams: Boston College, Georgia Tech
- Ladies and gentlemen, Jeff Capel: Pitt
Plenty of ACC schools will be Invited, and at least three will be offered Exempt Bids, which come with a home game. Unfortunately for the ACC, it is a hive of chaos and conflict, which means we might end up with only Stanford and Cal. ACC Basketball on The CW. Forever and ever.
America East
(vacant)
The American
- Good position: South Florida, Tulsa
- On our radar: Wichita State, UAB, FAU
- Treat the same way you would treat an unattended package at an airport: Memphis
It’s looking like we’ll get exactly one of USF and Tulsa, but Andy Kennedy is a leader of men and the AAC Tournament’s in Birmingham this year. Maybe we get exactly two of USF and Tulsa after all.
ASUN
- Automatic bid watch: Austin Peay
A lot of sad things happen in Jacksonville. One that didn’t? The Govs losing last night on a Chris Webber timeout technical. APSU escaped North Florida with an NIT automatic bid still on the table. It’s time to make a splash.
Big Ten
- Off our radar: Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin
- Not good, but maybe too good: Indiana, Ohio State
- The Big Ten has a contractual obligation to the College Basketball Crown: USC, Washington
- Bad record, fine team: Minnesota, Northwestern
- Bad record, bad team: Rutgers, Maryland, Oregon, Penn State
- What did I tell you about raising your voice: UCLA
I don’t know if we’re getting any Big Ten teams this year, but on the bright side, it’s not looking great for the Crown getting any Big Ten teams with winning records. That’s perfect. Nothing says “Tony Petitti” like 13–19 Rutgers playing postseason basketball on network television.
Big 12
- Off our radar: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU
- On our radar: Oklahoma State, Colorado
- Not good, but maybe too good: UCF
- The Big 12 has a contractual obligation to the College Basketball Crown: TCU
- It’s complicated: Baylor
- Please, universe, give me more Honor Huff: West Virginia
- Coach might get fired: Cincinnati, Arizona State
- Coach did get fired: Kansas State
- Mark Harlan’s stellar performance continues: Utah
Oklahoma State took the home game last year and could potentially do it again. West Virginia’s AD was an NIT hero in 2021 and Ross Hodge has a lot of NIT notches in his belt, but that Big 12 contract is a black box and Brett Yormark loves Las Vegas. Scott Drew’s won an NIT and spoke highly of that experience when I talked with him a few years ago, but that NIT team was a different Baylor in a different college basketball ecosystem. Then, there’s Tad Boyle’s Colorado, which does in fact still exist and even has a basketball game scheduled this weekend.
Big East
- Off our radar: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
- The Big East has a contractual obligation to the College Basketball Crown: Seton Hall, Creighton
- It’s complicated: Butler
- Coach might get fired: Providence, Georgetown
- This makes me sad so we’re not gonna talk about it: Marquette
- DePaul!: DePaul
- Also DePaul: Xavier
Butler got conscripted into the Crown last year, but the NIT semifinals are at Hinkle Fieldhouse, so who knows what they’ll do if they get the choice. DePaul and Xavier are on the radar too, as is Georgetown if the recent hot streak (technically it’s been going better!) continues. Decent crop of candidates here. We’ll see what happens.
Big Sky
- Automatic bid watch: Portland State
Work to do, but it’s possible.
Big South
- Automatic bid watch: High Point, Winthrop
Huge one tomorrow at the Qubein Center.
Big West
- EXEMPT bid watch: Hawaii, UC Irvine
Not just an automatic bid. These boys are top-12.
This is a win–win for the NIT. Imagine that first round game in Honolulu.
CAA
- Automatic bid watch: UNC Wilmington
- On our radar: Hofstra
Could we get both? Perhaps. I don’t want to be too…Greedy. (*sunglasses emoji for those in the know*)
Conference USA
- Automatic bid watch: Liberty
- On our radar: Sam Houston
I told myself I wouldn’t make any Patrick Henry jokes today.
Horizon League
(suspended)
Ivy League
- Automatic bid watch: Yale
Cornell hosts the Ivy League Tournament this year, and they might even make it. Good news for Yale’s NIT dreams. Every little bit helps.
MAAC
(vacant)
MAC
- Good position: Miami (OH), Akron
- On our radar: Kent State
It’s time for the RedHawks to dream even bigger.
MEAC
(vacant)
Missouri Valley
- Good position: Belmont
- On our radar: Northern Iowa, Illinois State, Murray State, UIC, Bradley
What a list. The MVC is back, baby.
Mountain West
- Off our radar: Utah State
- Maybe too good: New Mexico, San Diego State
- Good position: Grand Canyon
- Good position but they were confusing last year: Nevada
- Good position but they got really excited last year because Fox Sports told them they were a big boy: Boise State
- On our radar: Colorado State, Wyoming, UNLV
I’ll say this for the Crown: If Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12 teams reject it in even greater quantities, I wouldn’t mind seeing it stick around as an annual Mountain West/New Pac-12 blood match. Like the Ryder Cup, but if nobody cared.
NEC
(vacant)
OVC
(vacant)
Patriot League
(I want to include Navy but it’s probably vacant)
Sun Belt
(I want to include Scott Cross but it’s probably vacant)
SoCon
- Automatic bid watch: East Tennessee State
Last year, a state school from East Tennessee stole our hearts. There will never be another Chattanooga. And yet, I find myself dreaming.
SEC
- Off our radar: Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky
- Not good, but maybe too good: Auburn, Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri
- Coach might get fired: LSU, Oklahoma
- Unsightly but possible: Mississippi, South Carolina
- Please, universe, give me Josh Hubbard: Mississippi State
The SEC will be offered three Exempt Bids.
Southland
- Automatic bid watch: Stephen F. Austin
- Good position: McNeese
The Southland was always bigger than Will Wade.
(Ok maybe not always.)
Summit League
- Automatic bid watch: North Dakota State
- On our radar: St. Thomas
I wonder where they got the Summit League name.
SWAC
(vacant)
WAC
- Automatic bid watch: Cal Baptist
- Automatic bid watch but they’re in a legal dispute with the WAC: Utah Valley
Can Utah Valley win a WAC regular season title? Yes. Will the WAC give them that title? I don’t know. Will the NIT recognize it? I don’t know that either. What I do know is that I want more of those green men they brought to the Final Four in 2023. Those guys were cool.
WCC
- Off our radar: Gonzaga
- Maybe too good: Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
- On our radar: Seattle
The WCC gets an Exempt Bid. Redhawks vs. RedHawks??
**
I think that’s 132 teams for today. Now let’s go have a great weekend.
- Off our radar: 33 teams
- Maybe too good: 12 teams
- Good position: 12 teams
- Good position but they were confusing last year: 1 team
- Good position but they got really excited last year because Fox Sports told them they were a big boy: 1 team
- On our radar: 22 teams
- Automatic bid watch: 11 teams
- EXEMPT bid watch: 2 teams
- Automatic bid watch but they’re in a legal dispute with the WAC: 1 team
- The Big Ten/Big 12/Big East has a contractual obligation to the College Basketball Crown: 5 teams
- It’s complicated: 2 teams
- Please, universe, give me Josh Hubbard: 1 team
- Please, universe, give me more Honor Huff: 1 team
- Coach might get fired: 7 teams
- Ways might be mutually parted: 2 teams
- Coach did get fired: 1 team
- Bad record, fine team: 2 teams
- Bad record, bad team: 6 teams
- Unsightly but possible: 2 teams
- These are technically basketball teams: 2 teams
- Treat the same way you would treat an unattended package at an airport: 1 team
- This makes me sad so we’re not gonna talk about it: 1 team
- Ladies and gentlemen, Jeff Capel: 1 team
- Mark Harlan’s stellar performance continues: 1 team
- DePaul: 2 teams
- Don’t raise your voice: 1 team
**
