Three thoughts on yesterday, before we get into where it left the landscape. I’m sorry to be the Jim Boeheim litigator but this blog started in part because the guy had a feud with the city of Greensboro. We’re not going to not talk about Jim Boeheim when he makes news.
1. Jim Boeheim was not the first to get Iceland and Greenland confused. Wasn’t that the original point of the names? Trickery?
2. Jim Boeheim was right and wrong about basketball and Ramadan. He was right when he said that Ramadan wasn’t created with basketball in mind. He was wrong when he said that Ramadan would have included carveouts for basketball players if it was created after the sport’s invention. It seems like some people missed the point on this, much to the chagrin of ACC fans who know that Boeheim is not the problem with those broadcasts.
3. The Big 12 court is ugly, yes. But what’s most disappointing is that the logo on the court is the Big 12’s and not that of some sponsor. I’m sorry. I thought Brett Yormark was a businessman.
NIT Bubble Watch works like other Bubble Watches except it’s better, focused on the right side of history. Here are the categories.
- Just Right: >50% NIT chance, per Joe Stunardi’s model
- Too Hot: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NCAA T*urnament
- Too Cold: <50% NIT chance, aimed below NIT
- It’s Complicated: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NIT but the College Basketball Crown is burdening their efforts
- Locked Out of Heaven: 0% NIT chance, too low
- Locked Into Hell: 0% NIT chance, going to the NCAA T*urnament
The other things to know are that if a team is bolded, that means that team moved across categories as a result of yesterday’s games, and if a team is in all caps, that means we expect them to receive an NIT invitation and we would, in the old world (and come again it shall), call them NIT locks.
Today’s date is Wednesday, March 12th. For the most current NIT Bubble Watch, click here.
ACC: Bigger Than Boeheim
- Too Cold: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia
- Just Right: North Carolina, PITT, SMU, Stanford, Wake Forest
- Locked Out of Heaven: Boston College, Cal, Miami (FL), NC State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
- Locked Into Hell: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
Leonard Hamilton’s career might not be over, but losing to Syracuse is—oddly enough—not how you wrap up an NIT bid these days.
Elsewhere, Pitt is set to get The Invitation. Five bids is a possibility. But the six-bid dream is very close to dead.
Big 12: The Men Who Would Be King
- Too Hot: Baylor
- Just Right: Oklahoma State, TCU
- It’s Complicated: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, Utah
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
I assume that to the extent the Crown has allure, part of that allure comes from the name. There’s an implication that the winner will get some sort of power. Of course, this isn’t going to be the case. We do not live in a monarchy. But for whatever it’s worth, UCF made a move towards being legally bound to the Crown, Oklahoma State entrenched itself on the front line of the NIT bubble, and Colorado kept climbing towards what would be shocking NIT consideration (they’ll have 20 losses soon and yet not a bad loss among those 20). Busy day on a busy floor.
Big Ten: Minnesota’s Breakthrough
- Too Hot: Indiana, Ohio State
- Too Cold: Washington
- Just Right: Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State, Rutgers, USC
- It’s Complicated: Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers
- Locked Into Hell: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
With Northern Colorado reaching the Big Sky title game (and making that automatic bid less likely), the Golden Gophers have topped 50% NIT probability. It might only be temporary, but Goldy’s in the mix, and we will always welcome that cheerful giant gopher.
WCC: Gonzaga’s NIT Drought Continues
- Too Cold: Oregon State
- Just Right: SAN FRANCISCO, SANTA CLARA
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s
- Locked Into Hell: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Maybe next year, Coach Few.
One-Bid Leagues:
- Too Hot: McNeese, Northern Colorado, Yale
- Too Cold: Arkansas State
- Just Right: Akron, CHATTANOOGA
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else in the whole darn country
- Locked Into Hell: High Point, Lipscomb, Omaha, Robert Morris, Saint Francis, SIU-Edwardsville, Troy, UNC Wilmington, Wofford
Congratulations to Robert Morris and Saint Francis, I guess. Condolences to UNC Wilmington. Northern Colorado? You’ve got one more chance. Go make history. Go start a debate over who is the real UNC.
SEC
- Too Hot: Arkansas, Georgia, Vanderbilt
- Just Right: LSU, South Carolina, Texas
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot: VCU
- Too Cold: George Washington, Loyola Chicago, Saint Louis
- Just Right: Dayton, George Mason, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Utah State
- Too Cold: Nevada, UNLV
- Just Right: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Big West
- Too Hot: UC San Diego
- Too Cold: Cal State-Northridge
- Just Right: UC Irvine
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Big East
- Too Cold: DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall
- Just Right: Georgetown
- It’s Complicated: Butler, Villanova, Xavier
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
Missouri Valley
- Too Cold: Northern Iowa
- Just Right: BRADLEY
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Drake
- Locked Into Hell: Drake
Conference USA
- Too Cold: Middle Tennessee
- Just Right: Liberty
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
The American
- Too Cold: Florida Atlantic, UAB
- Just Right: North Texas
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else except Memphis
- Locked Into Hell: Memphis
WAC
- Too Cold: Grand Canyon
- Just Right: Utah Valley
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
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If you’re looking for intel on today’s games, we’ve got that right here. *salute emoji*
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