This NIT Bubble Watch is for Friday, March 15th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
In 2021, amidst a slew of Covid-related opt-outs, Memphis won the NIT, and we—at long last—welcomed the beleaguered athletic department to college sports’ big stage. After years of rejection by the SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big East, and any other power conference the Tigers’ brass tried to join, Memphis had seen an opportunity and seized an opportunity. Memphis was our national champion, and Penny Hardaway was on his way to seeming years of glory.
Yesterday, Memphis made it back to the NIT. Or so we thought. Memphis lost to Wichita State, and we locked in the Tigers. We celebrated the return of the champs. Then, Penny Hardaway showed up to the press conference.
You can read Hardaway’s comments yourself. We are of course very sorry to hear about his mom’s battle with cancer, and we wish her a speedy and complete recovery. We understand being a caregiver is emotionally grueling and a ton of work, and we wish Penny Hardaway the best with that.
We also understand a lot of caregivers leave their jobs if they can’t do them, and if Penny Hardaway can’t do his job, maybe he should leave it. Caregivers around the world dig ditches and flip burgers to get by while caregiving. Penny Hardaway doesn’t need this coaching gig to get by.
If this were coming from someone respected by his peers, it would come across differently. But according to our AAC sources (not North Texas, to be explicitly clear on that front because we do not want to put that school in an awkward place), Penny Hardaway is not respected by his peers. Even if he was (or is, and our sources on this front are simply anti-Hardaway), the Jordan Brown saga is ongoing. The Malcolm Dandridge saga is ongoing. The effects from the James Wiseman saga continue to be felt. Penny Hardaway isn’t exactly Shaheen Holloway over here.
Penny Hardaway said he wasn’t disrespecting the NIT, which implies he would make the same decision if this were the NCAA *ournament. Of course, that isn’t true, but that’s the implication. If Memphis were disrespecting the NIT, though (which they are, if they don’t walk this back and get an interim to coach during these next one to three weeks), it would be an even bigger joke.
Last year, when UNC declined the NIT bid, rumor held that it was because relationships within the locker room had become untenable, not because the school actually thought itself too good for the NIT. If it had been the latter, though, we would have at least understood the logic, even if it made us want to kick Bubba Cunningham in the nuts (this is not a threat, we have never nut-kicked in our adult years and we don’t intend to start). No matter how hard we have to grit our teeth, we can admit that UNC has a rich basketball history and occupies an elite place within the sport. Memphis?
Memphis, again, has been trying very hard to join a power conference for the last 25 years. It hasn’t just been the obvious candidates or geographically convenient candidates passing them by. Louisville made the jump. UCF made the jump. Cincinnati made the jump. Houston made the jump. South Florida, for a few years, made the jump. Memphis? They’re almost inexplicably locked out, to the point where our best theory holds that perhaps Memphis is too perennially scandal-ridden and academically disreputable to be a business partner in college sports, an industry where scandal and academic farce is the norm.
Memphis should walk this back.
I kind of hope they don’t.
**
We have more respects to pay.
Toledo, you were great in the last four NITs. We’re sad that the rule change kept you out of this one. Did you ever win a game in those four NITs? No. Were you ever within single digits of winning one of those games? No. And yet we always thought you could. We always believed in Toledo. Good luck if you keep playing this year. Hopefully you can make it back next season. We’ll miss having you around.
NIT Bubble Watch. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture are combined at the bottom. Like a big unwieldy knot where you didn’t know what you were doing so you just kept tying.
ACC
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Florida State
- Just Right: NC State, Pitt, Boston College
- LOCKS: WAKE FOREST, VIRGINIA TECH, SYRACUSE
Hell of a shot last night by Mason Madsen to force overtime, but what was Boston College doing on that last possession? Were they playing for a buzzer three, to try to get the win? It’s the only explanation that makes any sense, and even it relies on an ingredient where they were scared they wouldn’t be able to stop Virginia, of all teams, from scoring in six seconds.
Either way, Boston College will finish on the bubble, while Virginia’s NIT chances are looking rather slim. The Hoos have an ace in the hole, which is that they’re capable of scoring 35 on any given night if they try their hardest, but we’re probably not getting Virginia this year. Which is fair. Too much of a good thing and whatnot.
Hilarious move by NC State to topple Duke. What a great prank. The DJ’s were at their peak, Mohamed Diarra was simply gobbling on the defensive glass, and we’re able to not talk about Ben Middlebrooks’s dunk attempt if we don’t want to.
Pitt beat Wake Forest in a game for which Wake Forest arrived fittingly late, speaking metaphorically. We’ve locked up Wake Forest and it feels really, really good. UNC pounded FSU, badly enough to put FSU on the NIT brink.
Today:
- North Carolina vs. Pitt
- Virginia vs. NC State
Pitt and NC State are each locks with a loss, unless someone smarter than our us tells us to hold off on Pitt, which they might. Virginia’s at least in the mix with a win. The chances might be slim, but the NIT is tasty enough to change that.
Big East
- Too Hot: Providence
- Too Cold: Xavier
- Just Right: St. John’s, Seton Hall
- LOCKS: VILLANOVA, BUTLER
If it’s any condolence to Villanova fans, that was an instant NIT bubble classic. When I successfully recreate all the sports media enterprises for which I’m nostalgic, that game will play on ESPN NIT Bubble Classic 52 times a year. (I saw someone call Kyle Neptune “Kyle Uranus” on Twitter today. Got his ass.)
Our model’s not sure what to make of Seton Hall, St. John’s, and Providence, but for what it’s worth: St. John’s did wagon things to Seton Hall, and Providence was strong against Creighton. Bad stuff for St. John’s and Providence’s NIT hopes. Great stuff for the Pirates. I will confess that I don’t really want these three in the NIT. If they made the NIT Final Four with that Final Four not at Madison Square Garden, it wouldn’t be a good vibe for your guy.
The semifinals:
- UConn vs. St. John’s
- Marquette vs. Providence
The nice thing for St. John’s is that UConn is capable of beating them by at least 13 points, even in New York. The nice thing for Providence is that they might be able to play the Tyler Kolek card if they accidentally win.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: St. Bonaventure
- Just Right: Loyola (IL), Duquesne, VCU
- LOCK: RICHMOND
Another NIT Bubble Classic: Bona vs. Loyola. Two overtimes! The first two days of the A-10 Tournament were silly and bad. Yesterday was silly and good. Credit to Erik Reynolds for setting the tone.
Reynolds led Saint Joe’s past Richmond, locking the Spiders in our room while keeping some sort of faint chance alive for the Hawks. VCU handled UMass, likely sending the Minutemen back to their farms and smitheries while making VCU the temporary (and perhaps permanent) A-10 Tournament favorite. The Bonnies, again, took two overtimes to beat Loyola after Loyola forgot where the hoop was for something like half an hour of real world time. Duquesne took down Dayton, and emotion flowed.
We think all three of Loyola, Duquesne, and VCU are with us, provided Duquesne and VCU each find a way to lose. Not quite locks, but close.
No A-10 action today. They’ve earned a break.
Big 12
- Too Hot: Oklahoma, TCU
- Too Cold:
- Just Right:
- LOCKS: CINCINNATI, KANSAS STATE, UCF
TCU didn’t score for the first nine and a half minutes against Houston, which would have been quite the closing NIT case if they’d made it last a little longer. Instead, we’ve probably lost them, although Oklahoma’s looking a bit more attainable as Richard Pitino keeps winning ballgames, like this is 2014 or something.
K-State got big-brothered by Iowa State, which was enough for us to call them a lock. They’re not missing the NIT on the low end. Same goes for Cincinnati, who could never get into offensive gear and eventual lost hold of Baylor.
Big Ten
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Maryland, Minnesota
- Just Right: Indiana, Ohio State
- LOCK: IOWA
Anthony Leal. My heart.
We love Penn State. We like the colors, we like the people, we like the NIT titles. But we are really excited about the possibility of Indiana playing Indiana State in the NIT opener in Terre Haute. We can’t stop talking about it. I’ve told my dog no fewer than 48 times that next Tuesday could be a really big night for the two of us and the couch. I might have to buy her a special bone or something for the occasion, should it indeed come to pass.
So, thank you to Mr. Basketball for the buzzer-beater. You may have changed my life. Indiana is very, very close to an NIT lock.
We wanted Maryland too, but it’s not looking like we’ll get them. Obliteration at the hands of the defending NIT third-place team (tied). It was a very 2023–24 Maryland Terrapins performance. At some point, that became the problem.
Michigan State took down Minnesota, likely taking both out of our hands (Minnesota retains a chance but not a great one). Has Dawson Garcia entered the transfer portal? Rumors swirl.
And, in the primetime game, Ohio State continued their surge towards the NIT’s top overall seed. What a run from the Buckeyes. It’s a dangerous game—if they forget to hit the off switch, they will miss the NIT—but fortune favors the bold. Matt Damon told me that in a crypto commercial now best remembered for its association with all sorts of criminal activity.
With the Ohio State win came an Iowa loss, and we’re pumped to have the Hawkeyes back. We know there’s a big portion of the fanbase who doesn’t realize Iowa didn’t even make an NIT before 1995 and definitely doesn’t realize that Fran McCaffery is the best thing to happen to basketball in Iowa City since Bucky O’Connor, but we get it. We know what Iowa basketball’s about. We’re happy to have the Hawks.
Today:
- Illinois vs. Ohio State
- Nebraska vs. Indiana
There is a scenario here where Ohio State and Indiana both win and I end up extremely stressed out on Sunday afternoon while Purdue picks its teeth during a tune-up game.
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Washington, Oregon
- LOCK: UTAH
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
The USC hype machine was du-uuuummmmmb!
Apologies for whatever degree of “caught up” in the USC movement we became. So glad to not have to deal with sniveling Andy Enfield. (Although as we’ve said before, it would have been fun to watch an NIT Championship with Dennis Rodman and LeBron James.)
We’re breaking our rules and including Colorado here, even after they may have locked themselves out by locking in Utah. We are unlimited, as a species. Our computer? Limited. It thinks Colorado’s out. We don’t want to say never just yet.
Oregon survived UCLA, which is about all one can do with UCLA when UCLA is being UCLA. N’Faly Dante played big boy basketball.
Today:
- Arizona vs. Oregon
- Washington State vs. Colorado
It seems like Colorado would have to do something very impressive to make the NIT. Oregon would suddenly be in mortal danger were they to pull off the upset. Mortal danger of missing the NIT, I mean. Not literal mortal danger. Again, not a threat. We have never murdered in our adult years, and we don’t intend to start.
SEC
- Too Hot: Mississippi State, Texas A&M
- Too Cold: Georgia
- Just Right: Mississippi, LSU
What’s going on in the SEC? That’s a really good question. Let’s start with what happened yesterday.
Mississippi State pulled away from LSU.
South Carolina crushed second-half Arkansas.
Texas A&M ultimately held off Mississippi.
Georgia couldn’t quite make the magic happen against Florida.
Where this leaves us is that Mississippi has a great NIT case, Georgia has a weird NIT at-large case, LSU has a decent NIT automatic case and an ok NIT at-large case, Mississippi State is out but the narrative is flipping and might push them in, and Texas A&M is out but Memphis just dropped past 75th in NET and that might dramatically affect the decisions of a different tournament’s selection committee, something which could result in LSU not making the NIT.
Got all that?
Good.
On to today:
- Tennessee vs. Mississippi State
- Kentucky vs. Texas A&M
Mississippi State leads Tennessee by 14 in the first half as I write this, which would answer the Mississippi State part of all of our questions. Texas A&M is out of the NIT with a win? We have said this a lot of times now. This is our third day of saying this.
LSU should cheer for Texas A&M and Mississippi State. So should Georgia. NIT bubble teams should cheer against those two. Pushing LSU and Georgia (and maybe even Mississippi) out would really help the Minnesotas of our world.
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: SMU, Memphis
- Just Right: South Florida
Well, we already talked about Memphis.
SMU got railroaded by Temple, losing by enough to take them to the NIT brink. The Florida State/SMU rivalry begins.
Today:
- South Florida vs. East Carolina
The Bulls are up early on the Bucs, so we’re guessing we don’t get this USF today. Probably wisest to win. That’d be a bad loss, and South Florida will have other opportunities to lock themselves in our grasp.
(GMG, by the way.)
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley
Indiana State’s back south of 50%. The drama. (I’m being serious.)
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: UNLV
What a shot by Dedan Thomas Jr.
What a game by UNLV.
In their closing argument, the Runnin’ Rebels turned in an overtime defeat to San Diego State, and that should be enough to keep them with us. They’re not a lock, but they’re in a good position. UNLV? More like U-NIT!
Colorado State beat Nevada, which took them out of the mix. New Mexico beat Boise State, which was thought to take them out of the mix but that was based on some outdated information. Ominous situation in the desert.
- New Mexico vs. Colorado State
Well would you look at that.
If Colorado State beats the Lobos, it now seems the Lobos might make the NIT? There’s still hope. NIT at the Pit. On the table.
Ivy League
- Too Hot: Princeton
- Too Cold: Cornell, Yale
- Just Right:
Yale is among those really helped by Penny Hardaway’s comments. Maybe he supports higher education after all.
The Others (not to be confused with The Otters, which would be very cute)
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon
- Too Cold: UC Irvine
- Just Right: Appalachian State, San Francisco
San Francisco, also helped by Penny Hardaway. Good guy!
Those last two:
- UC Irvine vs. Long Beach State
- Grand Canyon vs. Seattle
For UC Irvine, the best NIT path involves winning by so many points tonight and losing by hardly any points tomorrow. For Grand Canyon, a loss will do it, regardless of when it comes. UC Irvine would prefer Grand Canyon to win out, though. Grand Canyon could be a reverse bid thief!
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 10 teams (10 yesterday)
- Too cold – 11 teams (9 yesterday)
- Just right – 19 teams (29 yesterday)
- Locks – 11 teams (4 yesterday)
The field ebbs. The field flows. The NIT is an ocean unto itself. (A very selective ocean, to be clear.)
