As an American, I love the Indy 500 and think the Chicago White Sox are a little bit gross. So. The Big Ten Tournament switching from a Comiskey pinwheel theme to a giant subliminal advertisement for The Greatest Spectacle in Racing™? I love it. Of course, Tony Petitti is a dork (remember when he had to read off a teleprompter to congratulate Tom Izzo?) and the Big Ten’s partnership with Fox Sports is dragging college basketball and football alike into loserdom, but if Fox gets more eyeballs on the Indy 500, it might all be worth it in the end.
Let’s talk about yesterday’s action.
NIT Bubble Watch works like other Bubble Watches except it’s better, focused on the right side of history. Here are the categories.
- Just Right: >50% NIT chance, per Joe Stunardi’s model
- Too Hot: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NCAA T*urnament
- Too Cold: <50% NIT chance, aimed below NIT
- It’s Complicated: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NIT but the College Basketball Crown is burdening their efforts
- Locked Out of Heaven: 0% NIT chance, too low
- Locked Into Hell: 0% NIT chance, going to the NCAA T*urnament
The other things to know are that if a team is bolded, that means that team moved across categories as a result of yesterday’s games, and if a team is in all caps, that means we expect them to receive an NIT invitation and we would, in the old world (and come again it shall), call them NIT locks.
Today’s date is Thursday, March 13th. For the most current NIT Bubble Watch, click here.
ACC: Six-Bid League?
- Too Cold: Georgia Tech, Virginia
- Just Right: Florida State, North Carolina, PITT, SMU, Stanford, Wake Forest
- Locked Out of Heaven: Boston College, Cal, Miami (FL), NC State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
- Locked Into Hell: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
Florida State’s right on the NIT bubble, and we haven’t seen anything about whether they want to keep Leonard Hamilton’s career going. But. With a few opt-outs now baked into our model, FSU moved back across 50%, even without playing. Worth monitoring, friends.
Among teams who actually played: Stanford further guaranteed themselves an Invitation, Georgia Tech built up a little more hope, and SMU looked good enough to make us wonder if they’ll miss the NIT. What a heartbreaker that could be.
SEC: All Our Exes…
- Too Hot: Georgia, Texas, Vanderbilt
- Just Right: LSU, South Carolina
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Reasonable people are disagreeing on this, but Texas might have played its way out of the NIT with yesterday’s win. Nice moment after the game where Chris Del Conte and Rodney Terry hung out in the tunnel. I wonder if Del Conte said, “You know I’m here because I was going to fire you if you lost, right?”
In other movement, John Calipari will officially have to wait until next year if he wants that second ring. Great effort by South Carolina, who will most likely get The Invitation. Would take a lot of bid thieves for them to not get one of the SEC’s exempt bids.
Mountain West: Steve Alford, Come Home
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Utah State
- Too Cold: UNLV
- Just Right: Boise State, Colorado State, Nevada, San Diego State
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Steve Alford and the Wolf Pack (two words, NC State is one word, I wish there was a mnemonic for this) got the win they absolutely needed. They still might need one more, but an Alford return to Hinkle is viable. That’s all we ask. We want our storylines viable.
Big Ten: Goldy Down
- Too Hot: Indiana, Ohio State
- Too Cold: Minnesota, Washington
- Just Right: Iowa, Penn State, Rutgers, USC
- It’s Complicated: Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers
- Locked Into Hell: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Out. In. Out. In. Now, out again. The Minnesota Golden Gophers trigged the “Did you fire your coach?” variable when Mark Coyle left the NCAA T*urnament selection process last night to fly back to Minneapolis and can Ben Johnson in the middle of the night. I bet that sounded a lot more honorable in Coyle’s head.
Minnesota could theoretically still wind up in the NIT, but they’re below .500 and don’t have a head coach, so our guess is that the NIT committee won’t invite them. We don’t know for sure, though. If it helps you to hope, Minnesota fans, we get it.
On the other bubble, Ohio State’s loss breathed new life into Northwestern and Nebraska’s NIT dreams. If the Buckeyes take one of the Crown automatic bids, that lets either the Cats or the Huskers move into our part of the world. Crossing our fingers, and intrigued by Iowa’s charge up the big board.
WCC: Oregon State’s Got a Chance
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon State, SAN FRANCISCO, SANTA CLARA
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s
- Locked Into Hell: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
The Beavers are ever so slightly above 50%. Our hearts are in our throats. Chaotic bubbles these days around the NIT. Both sides. Mayhem.
Big 12: Answers and Colorado
- Just Right: Colorado, Oklahoma State, TCU
- It’s Complicated: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF, Utah
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Our understanding with the Big 12 teams is this:
UCF and Cincinnati are getting Crown automatic bids.
13–19 Arizona State is going to the Crown.
Utah wants to play in the Crown, even if they’re the only team who means that. Will Mark Harlan stop them because he doesn’t want anyone at Utah to be happy? There’s always a chance.
Jerome Tang doesn’t think Kansas State’s going to play any more basketball, but it sounded like he might be planning to double check with the players?
Somehow, this (and back-to-back wins) has led a Colorado team on the verge of twenty losses all the way into the NIT conversation. To be fair, every one of those losses is high quality. Remarkable stuff from the Buffs.
(I think TCU’s going to get the exempt bid and the home game. Hopefully Jamie Dixon likes us as much as we like him.)
Big East: DePaul Did it Again
- Too Cold: DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall
- Just Right: Georgetown
- It’s Complicated: Butler, Villanova, Xavier
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
DePaul adores beating Georgetown. Absolutely adores it. And you know what? Good for them. They found their joy.
With Butler beating Providence, it tentatively looks like Xavier and Villanova will get Crown invites, Butler will get the NIT exempt bid, and Georgetown will get an NIT at-large bid. As we’ve been saying, though…it’s complicated.
Conference USA: Reverse!
- Too Cold: Liberty
- Just Right: Middle Tennessee
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Liberty hasn’t been favored over the Conference USA Tournament field, but after yesterday, Liberty’s favored over the Conference USA Tournament field. That makes MTSU our expected exempt bid. Tentative, though. Let’s keep saying the word tentative. It sounds very serious.
WAC: Collision Course Continues
- Too Cold: Grand Canyon
- Just Right: Utah Valley
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Utah Valley and Grand Canyon each won their openers. The two-bid WAC dream is alive, but only barely. We’d need Utah Valley to lose in the semis and Grand Canyon to lose in the championship. I think. I think that’s our best path here.
One-Bid Leagues: The Real UNC
- Too Hot: Yale
- Just Right: Akron, Arkansas State, CHATTANOOGA, NORTHERN COLORADO
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else in the whole darn country
- Locked Into Hell: American, High Point, Lipscomb, McNeese, Montana, Omaha, Robert Morris, Saint Francis, SIU-Edwardsville, Troy, UNC Wilmington, Wofford
Northern Colorado’s done it. They’re in the NIT. Very fun team who played a very fun game in Boise.
The Sun Belt might get some representation after all. Arkansas State was another bubble team who moved up with the Big 12 and Minnesota news. Red Wolves rising, baby.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot: VCU
- Too Cold: George Washington, Loyola Chicago, Saint Louis
- Just Right: Dayton, George Mason, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Big West
- Too Hot: UC San Diego
- Too Cold: Cal State-Northridge
- Just Right: UC Irvine
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Missouri Valley
- Too Cold: Northern Iowa
- Just Right: BRADLEY
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Drake
- Locked Into Hell: Drake
The American
- Too Cold: Florida Atlantic, UAB
- Just Right: North Texas
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else except Memphis
- Locked Into Hell: Memphis
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