This NIT Bubble Watch is for Monday, March 11th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
Imagine, for a moment, that you are Buddy the Elf. Christmas has been over for more than two months. Your doctor just told you that you are prediabetic from all the syrup you’ve been guzzling. Your relationship with blonde Zooey Deschanel has passed the honeymoon phase, and while you love her (you even had a child with her in an epilogue, if I remember this movie correctly), it’s hard work being in love. Amidst all of this, you have just been snubbed by the Oscars for the 21st straight year, and you keep having dreams in which you are a vulgar NASCAR driver or a vulgar ice skater or a vulgar semi-professional basketball player or a vulgar anchorman. You are disturbed. You want to read some NIT Bubble Watch, don’t you.
Our respects to Eastern Washington. This one is especially sad, because 1) we like the red turf in Cheney, 2) we really enjoyed having EWU in the NIT last year, and 3) Jake Kyman’s college career finally ending makes us feel a wee bit old. But, the Eagles never painted their basketball court red to match the football field, and the universe cursed them as a result. Conference realignment, TV network aggression, and college basketball’s waning share of the zeitgeist are all a direct response by the universe to Eastern Washington never painting their court red. Thanks for turning the universe on the old NIT format, EWU.
As for the watching: As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture are lumped together at the bottom. Like the little bits of peanut butter cups at the bottom of a Dairy Queen Blizzard®.
ACC
- Too Hot: Virginia
- Too Cold: Florida State, Boston College
- Just Right: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest
Only thing to note here is that NET and the other ratings liked NC State’s performance Saturday more than our model thought they would. This is the computer equivalent of wondering whether your friend’s new boyfriend is really her type.
Big East
- Too Hot: Seton Hall
- Too Cold: Xavier
- Just Right: Butler, Providence, Villanova, St. John’s
That Drake win was, in sincerity, big for St. John’s. You gotta love the NIT.
Big Ten
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State
- Just Right: Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana
With their NIT hopes on the line, playing arguably their biggest basketball rival, Iowa came out of the gate yesterday and got outscored 22–4. By the time they found Brock Harding’s power switch, it was too late for a comeback. The Hawks are close. One more loss, fellas.
Ohio State pounded Rutgers, ending any realistic hopes for the Scarlet Knights but also creating some questions surrounding the Buckeyes. There is a minor but real possibility that the Buckeyes are a top-ten team when coached by Jake Diebler and that Chris Holtmann was simply having a very hard time. We are concerned about this, because it might lead the Buckeyes to miss the NIT. We care about all our NIT contenders (but we’d be lying if we didn’t call ourselves biased towards what we think will get the NIT the most attention and potentially craft a Thad Matta Bowl in the first or second round).
Indiana held off Michigan State, ending a good run of games for the Hoosiers and a bad week, with Liam McNeeley’s decommitment torching the vibes in Bloomington. Indiana finished sixth in the Big Ten this year. They probably need one more win, although a close loss to Penn State might…ahh, we’ll discuss on Thursday. I just can’t wait! (Again, we’re biased towards NIT Final Four attendance. We don’t want to be alone!)
Speaking of Penn State: They whacked Maryland, and they have a realistic shot to finish .500 (they’re 3–0 already this year against Michigan and Indiana) as well as a fringy chance to pass Maryland in the NET rankings, something which could earn Penn State the Big Ten’s second automatic bid if Ohio State or Iowa goes up. Welcome back, Nits. Momentum!
Big 12
- Too Hot: Oklahoma
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: UCF, Kansas State, Cincinnati, TCU
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: VCU, Duquesne, George Mason, UMass
- Just Right: Richmond, Loyola (IL)
Pac-12
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington, Utah
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
I’m a little nervous that we’re wrong about Coloradoooooo!
SEC
- Too Hot: Mississippi State
- Too Cold: Georgia, Arkansas
- Just Right: Mississippi, LSU
*Jean-Ralphio but with an awkward twang*
Also worried about Texas A & eeeeeeeemmmmmm!
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU
UAB beat SMU, but it was close enough and in Birmingham enough that it doesn’t affect SMU too dramatically. Still a little work to do; not in imminent danger. Like when you’re finishing up raking leaves and you can see a storm on the horizon but you aren’t even seeing lightning yet.
Mountain West
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Colorado State
- Just Right: UNLV, New Mexico
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley
We’re going to level with everyone here.
We agree Indiana State shouldn’t make the NIT.
But we wouldn’t say no!!!!!!
Especially since they’d probably host Indiana in the first round.
Just throwing that possibility into the universe.
We’re pulling for bid thieves with the Sycamores. Sad to see Drake go—we had a little carveout in our hearts for a Waukee High School reunion if Tucker DeVries played Payton Sandfort. But the chance at Robbie Avila lifting the NIT trophy? In Indianapolis? Man. What that would do for our brand.
Long week ahead.
Sun Belt
- Too Hot: James Madison
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Appalachian State
Arkansas State took down App State, and while the Mountaineers aren’t quite as safe as Bradley, they’re in a solid position to make the field. Good chance they visit Wake Forest or Virginia Tech in the opener.
As for the Sun Belt finale:
- James Madison vs. Arkansas State
The Red Wolves now play JMU, and we would love to get JMU in our tournament. That would be a dream. We’re seeing some rumblings saying the Dukes might miss the NIT even if they lose, but thankfully, JMU had a very hard time convincing power conference schools to play them this year, and they didn’t find enough good mid-majors in their stead. On one hand, that might have helped JMU get so many wins. On the other, it’s a convenient thing for me to write on six million pieces of confetti that I will be dropping in the room with the NCA* Tournament selection committee.
What’s this say, Jeff?
Says, “JMU weak NCSOS.” Also has a poorly-drawn sketch of a middle finger?
Ivy League
- Too Hot: Princeton
- Too Cold: Cornell, Yale
- Just Right:
WCC
- Too Hot: Saint Mary’s
- Too Cold: San Francisco
- Just Right:
This evening at the site of the 2023 NIT Final Four:
- Saint Mary’s vs. Santa Clara
- Gonzaga vs. San Francisco
Some say Saint Mary’s has no NIT chance. I choose not to believe those some. (We should make the mid-major stans choose between competing mid-majors. Saint Mary’s vs. Indiana State. James Madison vs. Princeton.)
San Francisco’s gotten themselves right on top of the bubble, to the degree where their ultimate NIT fate might come down to how close they can stay to Gonzaga. That’s pretty sad. But we didn’t fall in love with the NIT expecting it to always be happy.
The “Others” (Spoken Euphemistically)
- Too Hot: Samford, Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold:
- Just Right:
By vanquishing Furman, Samford has finally gotten themselves on the right side of the NIT cut line, even in the average scenario in which they lose tonight:
- Samford vs. East Tennessee State
They will be bubbly with a loss. But if it’s a teensy loss and they get some help elsewhere this week, we could see these Bulldogs in the National Invitation Tournament. Good luck, Samford. Tighter needle to thread than JMU’s.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 11 teams (11 yesterday)
- Too cold – 16 teams (16 yesterday)
- Just right – 30 teams (30 yesterday)
