This NIT Bubble Watch is for Thursday, March 7th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
Four months ago, we received a tip from a friend. That tip? “Oh wow. Indiana looks really bad.” That friend? Most of the college basketball blogosphere.
When we’re told a prestigious college basketball program looks “really bad,” our ears perk up. When that prestigious college basketball program sits in close proximity to the location of the NIT Final Four, our pupils dilate. When that prestigious college basketball program has a recent history of NIT participation and exists in the most basketball-loving state in the country, we start to positively howl. We salivate. We stomp our feet. We pound our chests. The very thought of the Indiana Hoosiers playing in the NIT Final Four turns us into caricatures of the horniest young men the 1960s ever saw.
Now, Indiana isn’t very likely to make the NIT Final Four.
Our friend wasn’t lying when they said the Hoosiers didn’t look so good in November (or December, or January, or February).
But after last night’s win at the Barn, Indiana’s just as likely to make the NIT as they are to miss it.
Excuse me if I remove my necktie and swing it around my head like David preparing to slay Goliath with his stones.
NIT Bubble Watch. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture are lumped together at the bottom. Like silt in a lake untouched by motorboats.
ACC
- Too Hot: Virginia
- Too Cold: NC State, Florida State, Boston College
- Just Right: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Wake Forest
Miami fans were so cocky when they made fun of me last April. There I was, handing out NIT propaganda while wearing a sign around my neck that read “32>68” (I’d forgotten a string to tie the sign, so I was using my cousin’s husband’s spare phone charger), and those pretty boys had the gall to think I was the one who was being uncool. They were about to attend a basketball game in a football stadium! A basketball game in which their favorite team got massacred! And sure, I was about to attend it too. But I was doing it as a protest.
Anyway, bon voyage, Hurricanes. Don’t forget to charge your phone before you hit the road.
Boston College! Great work. Welcome back. You are still rather unlikely to make the NIT, but you’re probably going to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2018, and you’re at least in the NIT picture. Three wins? Is that what it would take? That’s our best guess right now. You do play in the ACC, so maybe it’s doable. We’ll see the conference tournament bracket on Saturday.
Big Ten
- Too Hot: Northwestern
- Too Cold: Minnesota, Rutgers
- Just Right: Ohio State, Iowa, Maryland, Indiana
After Michigan State held off Northwestern last night, things got emotional. Steven Izzo was moved. Malik Hall’s father was mentioned. Andy Katz laid it on thick.
As though Spartan fans weren’t already crying from being eliminated from NIT contention.
Northwestern’s still around the edge of the picture, but it’s still a longshot, especially because they covered the spread. If you want to descend into the NIT, sometimes you have to do more than lose.
In the second leg of the festivities, Indiana won in Minneapolis, and that’s what all the hootin’ and hollerin’ was about. Minnesota? Still hanging around, but they’ve got work to do.
ToNITe:
- Rutgers at Wisconsin
This isn’t the last last stand for the Scarlet Knights. They play again on Sunday, and the NIT committee cares more about conference tournament results than the other tournament’s does. But it would sure be a big win for Rutgers. Win, they’re probably in. Lose, they’re probably not in. In some cultures, this would be called a match de basket.
Big East
- Too Hot: Villanova, St. John’s, Seton Hall
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Butler, Providence, Xavier
Seton Hall, no!
Xavier, also no!
Villanova! Butler!
Wait. Villanova and Butler did the right things.
Seton Hall committed an unforgivable sin last night, winning when we wanted them to lose. Kadary Richmond? I never thought he was that great anyway. The worst part of this was that Villanova played NIT basketball and might not get an NIT bid out of it. The Wildcats are still probably a little past our reach. What a debacle.
Once that was (mercifully) over, Butler yo-yoed Xavier, meaning they kept building big leads and then letting X back in it. At one point, Butler went more than ten minutes of basketball time without scoring a point (this spanned across halftime, so it was something like 40 minutes in the real world). Still, Xavier never made it close enough, and now Butler’s almost locked into the NIT, Butler’s back in the mix to host games the first three rounds, and Xavier’s in danger of falling out of the field entirely. The Musketeers need to either 1) finish at or above .500, 2) finish second in the Big East in NET once you remove the conscripted teams, or 3) get a very sympathetic glance from the NIT selection committee. Do none of those things? There will be Musketears.
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF
TCU missed their first opportunity at a really bad loss, winning in Morgantown, but they do still get UCF at home, so there might be a chance. We don’t really see it, but we’ll allow the 2017 champs to hope.
Speaking of UCF…
What’s the tie between Antonio Brown and the Knights? Is it just that they’re recruiting his son? Because he did not look like Antonio Brown whose son is being recruited by UCF last night at the UCF/Houston game. He looked like Antonio Brown who is Antonio Brown and likes UCF basketball. Maybe those look like the same thing. Maybe those are the same thing.
Valiant effort, but even a shorthanded Houston is a good enough Houston for that one. UCF’s not out of it, but they’re lucky they’re so likely to get the automatic bid. (I don’t think a lot of USF fans are realizing they’d be visiting UCF in the first round, not hosting UCF.)
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Duquesne, VCU, St. Bonaventure, UMass, George Mason
- Just Right: Richmond, Loyola (IL)
Not a great night for the A-10’s NIT hopes. Loyola really saved the day.
As far as the Fordham/UMass game goes: Yikes. UMass is around, but Yikes.
As far as the George Mason/Rhode Island game goes: Do you guys forget Archie Miller’s at Rhode Island? I have forgotten all about him over there. How long has he been there by now? Only two years, right?
As far as the St. Bonaventure/George Washington game goes:
I’m not a fan of the nickname change from Colonials to Revolutionaries. I think it was unnecessary. Energy better spent elsewhere. But! If you’re looking to win more home games instead of being road specialists, that is something which historically tracks with Revolutionaries, rather than Colonials. Colonizers dominate on the road. Revolutionaries protect their turf.
The Bonnies’ A-10 Tournament to-do list got a little bit longer.
(Richmond also won but I respect Richmond enough to treat that as an afterthought, which is convenient because I forgot to mention it on the first draft. It was, literally, an afterthought.)
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot: Florida Atlantic
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU
Something I appreciate about FAU is that they still play a lot of games that look like they’re taking place in Conference USA. FAU is not forgetting its roots. Narrow escape in the Super Pit. Still got a chance, but the path is narrow, and they might need help.
SMU sure stunk against East Carolina, but the Mustangs got the win. They could fall out of this thing, but it isn’t imminent.
Pac-12
- Too Hot: Utah, Colorado
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
What’s Cody Williams’s availabilityyyyyyyy?
- Colorado at Oregon
- Washington at Washington State
- Utah at Oregon State
The Buffaloes would get a lot closer to locking in NIT status if they were to lose in Eugene (where the Ducks would like to improve their seeding a little, although one way to do that would be to get Colorado out of the NIT and guarantee themselves an auto-bid home game). But will the top NBA prospect in college basketball play? These are the questions which don’t really concern the NCAA T*urnament’s championship contenders. Not as much NBA talent on the NCAA T*urnament’s championship contenders.
Washington goes to Pullman looking to put the doubts to rest. Utah goes to Oregon State looking to put the doubts to rest in the exact opposite way. I haven’t seen anything definitive about Rollie Worster’s availability either.
SEC
- Too Hot: Texas A&M, Mississippi State
- Too Cold: LSU, Georgia, Arkansas
- Just Right: Mississippi
Two teams from the SEC have to make the NIT, but only Mississippi looks all that serious about it. Texas A&M held off a Mississippi State comeback in College Station. Mississippi State’s comeback came up short against Texas A&M. LSU got beat by Arkansas.
Could Arkansas make the NIT? They’d probably have to beat Alabama. There are other ways, but those are more unlikely than Arkansas beating Alabama.
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley, Drake
Still no games involving any of these three, but they’ll come tomorrow. Their opponents (the potential accessories to the NIT bid heists) are being determined as we speak.
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Boise State, Colorado State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: UNLV
No Fresno State upset at the Pit. New Mexico remains at arm’s reach.
Sun Belt
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: James Madison, Appalachian State
Like with the MVC three, JMU and App State’s opponents will be determined today. Unlike with the MVC three, those opponents will get tomorrow off before taking their shot at the titans.
Ivy League
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Yale, Cornell
- Just Right: Princeton
WCC
- Too Hot: Saint Mary’s
- Too Cold: San Francisco
- Just Right:
NIT Outlaws (these are the teams from conferences with only one NIT contender)
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: Samford, UC Irvine
- Just Right:
McNeese won its regular season finale, beating New Orleans in New Orleans. We’ll get the Southland bracket tonight. I believe McNeese is likeliest to play either Nicholls or Lamar in those semifinals. For purposes of making the NIT, they should probably prefer Lamar, which makes them want Nicholls to beat SELA tonight.
Speaking of tonight:
- Cal Poly at UC Irvine
UC Irvine would be best served by winning by one thousand points. They’re favored by 24, but the thing right now is that they need to overperform expectations, because they need to raise their kenpom and their NET. Good luck, Anteaters. Zot.
**
Total count:
- Too hot – 19 teams (17 yesterday)
- Too cold – 18 teams (14 yesterday)
- Just right – 28 teams (33 yesterday)
We are suddenly on shakier ground. Games tonight, ripple effects tomorrow.
