Welcome back to Bubble Watch, you NIT demons. We’ve cleared out all the words from yesterday, so the only commentary here is on where last NITe leaves today. If you want to work forwards through the story, go to yesterday’s Bubble Watch and read it, then come right back here. If you’re looking for details on toNITe’s big games, go to our homepage in a few minutes.
We’ll wait for you.
Helpful links:
- NIT Bracketology: Our latest projection of the eventual field, from before yesterday’s games.
- NIT Bracketology Rundown: First Four Out, Next Four Out, and assorted complications (also from before yesterday’s games).
- NIT Bubble Watch: This page will help guide you to the most recent Bubble Watch, in case you’re viewing one from a previous day.
- NIT Blog Posts: This will take you to every blog post talking NIT, a collection which includes our daily previews of the action at hand, usually published shortly after this.
Conference by conference:
ACC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Pitt?
- In the Mix (High): UNC, NC State, Pitt
- Sweet Spot: Clemson
- In the Mix (Low): Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Syracuse
UNC won against Florida State, which doesn’t change much. Still a good night, but more because of Oklahoma State, and because of Utah State by way of Nevada.
Big Ten
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers
- Sweet Spot: Penn State
- In the Mix (Low): Nebraska
Big 12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): West Virginia, Iowa State
- Sweet Spot: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
- In the Mix (Low): Oklahoma
We’re putting Iowa State in the mix here because they could finish with a 17–14 overall record and a 1–8 mark in their final nine, and that’s really close to how last year’s national champion got it done. Xavier closed on a 2–8 stretch. Different situation, Iowa State’s probably still safe, but they’re on our radar for the first time since early January.
Even bigger on our radar is Oklahoma State, who’s now aimed at a 17–16 final record that we do not expect the NCA* *********t committee to accept. Well done, Pokes. We wish it wasn’t because of injury, but we’re glad you’re at least home.
West Virginia is convening on the same spot as Iowa State, where we don’t really think they have a chance but we don’t know for sure. We aren’t kicking them out yet.
SEC
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Mississippi State, Auburn, Missouri
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Vanderbilt
Big East
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Providence
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John’s
Pac-12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Oregon, Arizona State, USC
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Washington State, Colorado, Utah, Washington
Mountain West
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Utah State, Nevada, Boise State
- Sweet Spot: New Mexico
- In the Mix (Low): UNLV, San Jose State
Nevada’s a lot closer to us after losing at Wyoming, closer than Boise State now, but that wasn’t fully shocking so they’re still around. More dramatically affected is Utah State, who lost a Q1 win out of that game and doesn’t have any others. Hilarious prank by Nevada and Wyoming.
The American
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Memphis
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane
Conference USA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Florida Atlantic
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot: North Texas, UAB
- In the Mix (Low):
West Coast Conference
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, BYU
Atlantic 10
- Auto-Bid Contenders: VCU
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Dayton, Saint Louis, Duquesne, Fordham
WAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Utah Valley, Sam Houston State?
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Sam Houston State, Utah Valley?
Sun Belt
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Southern Miss
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Marshall, Louisiana, James Madison
Missouri Valley
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Bradley
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Drake
MAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Kent State, Toledo
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Kent State, Toledo, Akron
We realized Akron and Syracuse are the same on paper, which means we forgot to list Akron yesterday. Our apologies to all affected by this slight. We blame Syracuse.
CAA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Hofstra
- In the Mix (High): College of Charleston
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
ASUN
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Kennesaw State
- In the Mix (High):Liberty
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Queens and Bellarmine each won their ASUN opener, and since either of those two winning the ASUN Tournament would pull Kennesaw State out of the NIT (assuming the ASUN’s handling these scenarios like it did last year, which now that I think about it is a reckless assumption), that leaves Kennesaw State at least two games from locking in an auto-bid. Can’t happen tonight.
MAAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Iona
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Summit League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Oral Roberts
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Ivy League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Yale, Princeton, Penn
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Big West
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UC-Riverside, UC-Irvine, UC-Santa Barbara
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
The Big West released a clarification on its tiebreakers and to be honest, I didn’t understand it. I still don’t think Fullerton’s got a good shot at the league title, though. Or any shot, since at least one of UC-Irvine and UC-Riverside has to beat the other. Someone please tell me if I’m wrong. I’m trying to get more into college baseball.
Big Sky
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Eastern Washington
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
We’ve got a bracket here, and it doesn’t really change anything. Eastern Washington is a narrow underdog in the conference tournament to Montana State.
SoCon
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Furman
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Horizon League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Youngstown State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Big South
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UNC-Asheville
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
America East
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Vermont
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Patriot League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Colgate
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
MEAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Norfolk State, Howard
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Norfolk State had a wild comeback last night against NC Central, but they still lost in overtime. Fortunately for Norfolk, this doesn’t change things at all. They still win the league if they beat Howard on Thursday, if the tiebreakers I’m seeing are correct. So it’s a conference championship game before the conference tournament. Love those.
Norfolk winning the league would be good for NIT bubble teams because it would make an automatic bid from the MEAC marginally less likely.
Ohio Valley
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Morehead State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Southland
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
SWAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Grambling State, Alcorn State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Grambling and Alcorn both won last night, but now Grambling’s favored to finish 2–0 while it’s likelier Alcorn will split, and since they’re tied, that means Grambling’s the current favorite. Next games Thursday. If it’s a tie, Alcorn does hold the tiebreaker. Grambling is better, so NIT bubbler fans should pull for Grambling.
NEC
- It’s over.
**
More NIT Bubble Watch tomorrow, with adjustments from toNITe’s games.
Unless there’s a meteor.
