Welcome, friends, to NIT Bubble Watch. You’re home here. We’re home here. Seton Hall is, for the moment, home here.
We plan to publish a new one of these daily between now and Selection Sunday, giving you a better and better look at the NIT picture as the games march along. For today, this is mostly a primer—a starting point as the ASUN Tournament begins the conference tournament process (a cruel process, we must say, forcing so many teams to lose what they’re told is their conference title if they want to make the NIT). Tomorrow, we’ll start recapping the effects of each day’s action as well.
Before we get into the meat, a few helpful links:
- NIT Bracketology: Our latest projection of the eventual field.
- NIT Bracketology Rundown: First Four Out, Next Four Out, and assorted complications.
- NIT Bubble Watch: This page will help guide you to the most recent edition of this, in case you’re viewing a past page.
- NIT Blog Posts: This will take you to every blog post talking NIT, a collection which will include our daily previews of the action at hand.
Now.
Conference by conference:
ACC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Pitt?
- In the Mix (High): UNC, NC State, Pitt
- Sweet Spot: Clemson
- In the Mix (Low): Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Syracuse
Let’s be real for a moment: Syracuse has virtually no NIT chance. It would take a stunning turnaround or a galling committee surprise to get them into this field. Still, a lot of you are convinced Syracuse will make the NIT if they hit some magic number of wins, as though other teams who deserve NIT bids will just lay down their arms and let Jim Boeheim (of all people) waltz through the synthetic leather gates. Maybe you’re right. The NIT committee is a wildcard.
Wake and Virginia Tech are right on the edge of the bubble if everyone does exactly what they’re expected to do from here, meaning there’s upside and simplicity: Just win. Clemson is also in a simple spot: Just do what’s expected. Win as a favorite, lose as an underdog, grab a first-round home game.
UNC’s in trouble, but they haven’t shaken us yet. For one thing, Virginia’s sinking like a rock, so Saturday might not be a Q1 win next week when the NCAA prints off team sheets. For another, they have a potential disaster of a trap game tonight in Tallahassee.
NC State and Pitt could each drop back in without too much fuss. NC State really got smacked this weekend. Their numbers are hurting. Pitt’s pretty well accepted to be on the bubble, and they still have to play Notre Dame in South Bend, which can’t hurt their NIT cause.
Big Ten
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers
- Sweet Spot: Penn State
- In the Mix (Low): Nebraska
Nebraska’s now projected to not only finish at .500, but to get to a game above it by the time they’re done in the Big Ten Tournament. Ohio State needs to win six more in a row or get an invisible rule change.
Unfortunately for the Huskers, that .500 +1 mark might not be enough. Their KenPom’s terrible, their NET’s terrible, they need to do a little more. Those things are easier to fix, in theory, than your overall record—just wallop somebody—but the Huskers are running out of chances to wallop. Get the guys together, Fred. Tell ‘em it’s walloping time!
Wisconsin and Michigan are each in the throes of bubble life right now, but we’re not convinced Iowa, Illinois, and Rutgers are entirely safe from our grasp. Illinois’s wins over UCLA and Texas should carry them, but does a win over a good team count as a win over a good team if that good team hasn’t beaten any good teams? I’m going to stand outside the NCAA T********t selection room all next week saying this on a microphone.
Penn State, meanwhile, remains a delight. Brutal loss yesterday to save themselves a lot of questions today.
Big 12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Oklahoma State, West Virginia
- Sweet Spot: Texas Tech
- In the Mix (Low): Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s in a weird place here, needing either the invisible rule change or to get back to .500 overall. They’re a game under right now with two to play, but if they split, they’ll have to win two in the Big 12 Tournament, since every win there means another game they have to play. All of which means they probably need to sweep these last two. And that’s unlikely.
Texas Tech is in a lovely position, but the problem with the Big 12 is that any win’s a good win. Our model knows they should get one more. Two would throw everyone for a loop. Three would probably bury them in Exhibitionland.
Oklahoma State and West Virginia probably can’t get down here unless their overall win/loss record starts getting ugly, but each only has 16 wins right now. They could finish exactly .500.
SEC
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Mississippi State, Auburn, Missouri
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Vanderbilt
Sorry, Georgia fans.
You’re welcome, Auburn fans.
Please calm down now, Vanderbilt fans.
Georgia isn’t good enough. Their NET and KenPom are worse than bad and they aren’t like Fordham, who at least has strong résumé metrics. Georgia got where they are by playing one of the worst nonconference schedules in the country. The NIT committee has to work fast, but it should see through this.
Vanderbilt is good enough, but they have a lot of work left to do. They also have the NET/KenPom problem, which generally means they haven’t played well enough and have just pulled out close wins. Credit to them for that, but it only gets you so far.
Mississippi State is trying like hell to get away, and Saturday’s win helps that cause. It was expected, though. If they lose just one of the next two, we expect they’ll be right back with us, provided there isn’t mass movement from other bubblers in our direction.
Auburn has the falling–apart thing going on, but that narrative’s probably overblown. They haven’t done enough. Mizzou has some troubling underlying metrics and a few potential terrible losses lined up from here, but they’ve won a lot of games. A lot of good games.
Big East
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Providence
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John’s
St. John’s could theoretically still get here. Villanova and Seton Hall are just trying to hang on. There’s a small chance Villanova could blow past us, but at that point it becomes about narrative with Justin Moore. We’re far enough away to not worry about narrative yet. Also, we want Villanova. So please downplay that storyline.
Providence is a weird one. Pretty bland team sheet, largely from doing nothing during nonconference. We don’t think we’ll catch them, but we aren’t ruling it out until we see something more convincing. From them or our computers.
Pac-12
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Oregon, Arizona State, USC
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Washington State, Colorado, Utah, Washington
They’re getting away!
Arizona State’s buzzer-beater made for great TV, but let this be a lesson to all the kids at home: Flashy doesn’t always make you the NIT. It could, still—ASU hasn’t done much besides make one convenient half-courter and punk Michigan that one time—but they’re in a bad spot. And in a worse spot? USC. USC quietly had a really big weekend in the mountains. What a rich kid move. Go to Colorado and Utah in February and have a great time? Disgusting.
Washington State’s projected over .500 for the first time in forever, and Colorado’s projected over .500 for what might be the last time forever. Utah’s a banged-up mess on a losing streak. Washington probably eliminated themselves altogether with the Stanford loss yesterday, but they’re ahead of Syracuse, so they make an appearance.
Mountain West
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Utah State, Boise State, Nevada
- Sweet Spot: New Mexico
- In the Mix (Low): UNLV, San Jose State
San Jose State pops its head back up, as they and UNLV both hang around the concept of hanging around. New Mexico’s still in strong position, dodging quite the bullet Saturday night against San Diego State.
Something that happened in this league, which we’ve mentioned elsewhere, is that Nevada slid into the NET top 30 over the last few days. That gave Utah State a Q1 win they really didn’t need. Utah State’s whole NIT case was predicated upon not having enough Q1 wins. Nevada must still hate these guys from the Musselman fighting days.
The American
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High): Memphis
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane
Memphis almost did it yesterday, but they held on. They keep doing this to us. They show us they have an NIT team in there somewhere, but then they go and win anyway.
Cincinnati’s trending on the right side of the bubble, UCF and Tulane are on the wrong side of it. All three are close enough that you could flip a coin right now.
Conference USA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Florida Atlantic
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot: North Texas, UAB
- In the Mix (Low):
You could conceivably make an MTSU case, but we aren’t going to make it. Syracuse remains our line (Fordham, actually, but that’s a technicality). North Texas and UAB just need to avoid winning the Conference USA Tournament right now. FAU needs to lose it, and preferably lose it in ugly fashion. There’s the MTSU tie-in. That’s how Kermit Davis’s Blue Raiders joined us in 2018.
West Coast Conference
- Auto-Bid Contenders:
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, BYU
BYU does have a case, and that case revolves around them getting their NET and KenPom even better and then hoping the committee throws KPI and SOR even further out the window than last year. Santa Clara and Loyola Marymount have more conventional cases, but LMU has more work to do. Tournament starts Thursday, BYU plays Friday, Santa Clara and LMU play Saturday.
Atlantic 10
- Auto-Bid Contenders: VCU
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Dayton, Saint Louis, Duquesne, Fordham
VCU—who would be in the sweet spot were they not lined up to win this thing outright—hasn’t quite fully clinched the A-10 title, but they’re one win away with two chances to get it and they hold at least some tiebreakers if they do end up in a tie. So, they’re the team to watch.
Others to watch? Some people like to claim that the NIT committee tries to add at least one team from various conferences, something that explains one or two inclusions over the years but mostly ignores tons of evidence saying that isn’t happening (the Big East has missed a lot of NITs). A better case is that the NIT committee will flip from the predictive ratings to the reflective ones this year and include someone like Fordham out of nowhere. Strong SOR, fine KPI, horrible KenPom and NET. If they do that, look for SLU as well, and maybe some of these others.
WAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Utah Valley, Sam Houston State?
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Sam Houston State, Utah Valley?
I think Utah Valley’s almost got this, leading by a game and being favored to win their next two, but I’m not positive how things work with the WAC’s new seeding system. Does that determine the conference regular season champion, or is it still wins and losses? Utah Valley leads in both, but it’s hard to see it losing its grip in the latter and it’s easy to see it losing its grip in the former because the former is mysterious.
If the Wolverines do win the WAC, they should be an underdog in the league tournament. The same would be true of Sam Houston State, but to a lesser degree.
Sam Houston State does have a pretty good shot at an at-large bid, and Utah Valley could get there as well with the right odd little combination of big wins and small losses. The WAC is BAC. Blood-Alcohol Content. The WAC is drunk.
Sun Belt
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Southern Miss
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Marshall, Louisiana, James Madison
Southern Miss wound up with the Sun Belt title, but they’re a heavy underdog in the league tournament, even on paper with ULL and James Madison and probably not as good as Marshall. (Games here start tomorrow, but those four won’t play until Saturday.) There’s a chance we could get two bids out of these guys, with Marshall the best chance at that chance, but it’ll take some wild things going down these next fourteen days.
Missouri Valley
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Bradley
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Drake
Bradley has the clear shot here. They’re the Missouri Valley champion, they’re an underdog at Arch Madness against both the field and, individually, Drake (Drake drew the easier path, the teams are pretty similar in quality). Drake, on the other hand, has to both lose the tournament and play well enough to get in front of the cut line, wherever that lands. Don’t envy Drake right now. Except that their mascot is a cute bulldog. I do envy that about them.
First games Thursday in St. Louis, but Drake and Bradley don’t play until Friday.
MAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Kent State, Toledo
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low): Kent State, Toledo
Toledo holds a one-game lead right now, but that could be…gone in a Flash.
*pause for applause*
Kent State does hold the head-to-head. Also, Kent State has a pretty solid chance of ending up in NIT territory on the seed list. Also also, Toledo could do that too? But probably not without winning the MAC.
CAA
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Hofstra
- In the Mix (High): College of Charleston
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Hofstra’s in prime position, a conference tournament underdog with a regular season title already under their belt. That’s how you take matters into your own hands.
Charleston is in a different boat. The Cougars need to lose a tournament they’re heavily expected to win, but the loss can’t be terrible or they could miss the NIT on the low side. They’re kind of like a plane trying to land with one engine. It’s a dangerous situation. The best bet? The safe route? Lose specifically to Hofstra.
This tournament starts on Friday, but Charleston and Hofstra won’t play until Sunday.
ASUN
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Kennesaw State
- In the Mix (High):Liberty
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Kennesaw State won the ASUN’s regular season title, but they’ll be an underdog at Liberty if they run into them in the ASUN Tournament, which is likely, so their NIT chance is currently pretty good. They do have to deal with the risk of Bellarmine winning the conference tournament again, or Queens winning it (shoutout to North Alabama for evidently completed the Division I transition, which means we’ve been doing this for a concerningly long time). Either of those two winning would result in NCAA conscription for our beloved Owls and an angry press conference from players whose coaches neglected to tell them the rules. Still, we’re probably getting Kennesaw State, who’ll play their first ASUN Tournament game tomorrow.
Liberty has the Charleston situation going on. Need a loss, but the loss can’t be too terrible, but many losses in this tournament would be terrible. We think they’re safely with us if they lose, but we’ll need to revisit if the actual loss goes down.
MAAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Iona
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Rick Pitino won the MAAC this year, but we’re going to need some help if we’re to see him in our bracket again. The Gaels are favored over the field once things get to Atlantic City. Even if that town seems to psych out ol’ Slick.
Summit League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Oral Roberts
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Oral Roberts went undefeated in the Summit League this year, but with South Dakota State a little down and Oral Roberts’s nonconference success lacking, they’re with us if they lose in Sioux Falls. Games start Friday, Oral Roberts starts Saturday, one complication here is that St. Thomas is playing in the tournament but is another D-I transitioner, and I haven’t yet looked for how the Summit League would handle them winning the tournament. Probably won’t come to that, but feels like one of those leagues is going to have it come to that, and it is going to give me a headache.
The Golden Eagles are underdogs. Underdogs to make the NIT, that is. They didn’t go undefeated out of chance. These guys are way better than the rest of the Summit League. Remember that Max Abmas dude? I don’t. I didn’t watch that tournament.
Ivy League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Yale, Princeton, Penn
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
The Ivy League title will be decided on Saturday, with Yale, Princeton, and Penn in a three-way tie but Yale holding individual tiebreakers over both of them (Penn and Princeton can’t tie each other because they play each other in the season finale). Of the three, Penn has the best chance of losing the Ivy League Tournament, because Yale’s the best team and the tournament’s at Princeton. Quake and bake.
Big West
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UC-Riverside, UC-Irvine, UC-Santa Barbara
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
This one’s gotten busy with two conference games left to play (for most teams, I don’t know what happened to Fullerton’s 20th game but they don’t have one and therefore aren’t in the mix at the moment, just as Hawaii isn’t in the mix at the moment, even though they’re each only a game back). There’s a three-way tie at the top, and the big one is Irvine going over to Riverside on Thursday night. That should decide this.
Right now, we have Riverside as the narrow regular season favorite and Irvine as the tournament favorite, but no one will be favored over the tournament field.
Big Sky
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Eastern Washington
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Eastern Washington’s the regular season champion up in the Junior Mountain West, where the conference tournament begins on Saturday (there’s still a regular season game left, so no bracket yet). They’re a slight tournament underdog to Montana State, and they’re a big underdog against the field.
SoCon
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Furman
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Furman ended up winning this thing, but they’re now in a great position to win the SoCon Tournament, nearly favored over the field. Pins and needles in Greenville as the fellas head up to Asheville. Games start Friday, Furman plays Saturday.
Horizon League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Youngstown State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
The Horizon League takes great pains to avoid us, having sent their regular season champion to the NIT every year automatic bids have been available since 2016. Even with bracketing hijinks, though, they keep making their best team play three games in the league tournament, and this year’s—Youngstown State—isn’t good enough to be favored over the field. Some of these teams in this situation will miss our orbit, but history says the Penguins are coming our way. Games start tomorrow, Youngstown plays on Thursday.
Big South
- Auto-Bid Contenders: UNC-Asheville
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
The Big South’s tournament starts on Wednesday, and Asheville is favored, but not over the field. Could the school become the first to effectively host a Maui Invitational and go on to win a first-round game in the NIT? Do we count UNLV as a host that other year? Asheville plays Friday, by the way. Weird day off after the first games. Are those on campus sites? So many questions with this league.
America East
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Vermont
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
It’s only Vermont in the A-East (it’s always been Vermont, say the engagement ring commercials where we try to find a Catamount to whom we can propose), whose tournament will start on Saturday after the league wraps up its regular season tomorrow night. The Cats get to play the tournament at home, and the tournament reseeds, so as of now they’re more likely to win it and miss the NIT than they are to lose it and make the NIT. Good luck, maple people. Maybe UMBC can do you another solid.
Patriot League
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Colgate
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Colgate gets to host its way through the Patriot League Tournament, and is thusly favored over the field, but they’ve overcome these odds before, and recently: In 2020, before Covid was unleashed by the NCAA to stop the NIT in its tracks (we overcame, for the record). Tournament starts tomorrow, Colgate doesn’t play until Thursday.
MEAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Norfolk State, Howard, North Carolina Central
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
Two regular season games left in the MEAC, where Norfolk State and Howard are tied a game ahead of NCCU and UMES. We’re projecting Norfolk State to end up with the crown here, but they’re an underdog at NCCU tonight, so everything’s in play. Everything except UMES winning the regular season title, I mean. We aren’t seeing a scenario where that can happen.
Ohio Valley
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Morehead State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
This probably won’t matter, but Lindenwood and Southern Indiana are both in the OVC Tournament even though they’re new D-I programs ineligible for the NIT and the other one. Each would have to win four games to get there, so again, probably won’t matter, but I haven’t seen it addressed how the OVC would handle the auto-bid, which could mean Morehead has a conscription risk.
Regardless, Morehead’s favored to make the NIT. Everyone’s about as good (or bad) as everyone else in the OVC’s top six, so even with just having to play two games, it’s likelier Morehead loses than that they win twice. Tournament starts Wednesday, Morehead plays Friday.
Southland
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
AMCC clinched this over the weekend, taking a one-game lead into the final gameday of the regular season (Wednesday) while holding the tiebreaker over Northwestern State. So, the Islanders are the Southland champs, and as always in the Southland (which uses the OVC ladder format), they’ll have work to do. Odds are better that they’ll do it than that they won’t, but it’s going to be dicey.
SWAC
- Auto-Bid Contenders: Grambling State, Alcorn State
- In the Mix (High):
- Sweet Spot:
- In the Mix (Low):
There are still three games to go in the SWAC, and at the moment, Alcorn’s the favorite because they hold the head-to-head over Grambling. In the tournament, though, Alcorn is the underdog, which sets the stage for back-to-back NIT appearances from Lorman’s finest. Lot of season left, but that’s the current setup.
NEC
- It’s over.
Merrimack won the NEC regular season title, but Merrimack is NIT-ineligible as they’re still too new to Division I basketball. So, no NEC teams this year. No 2016 Wagner–over–Bonaventure this time.
**
More NIT Bubble Watch tomorrow, with adjustments from toNITe’s games.
Unless there’s a meteor.
