On a day full of carnage, one that sent Duke players out of the arena via wheelchair and stretcher…
Honestly, the NIT picture stayed pretty intact.
NIT Bubble Watch works like other Bubble Watches except it’s better, focused on the right side of history. Here are the categories.
- Just Right: >50% NIT chance, per Joe Stunardi’s model
- Too Hot: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NCAA T*urnament
- Too Cold: <50% NIT chance, aimed below NIT
- It’s Complicated: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NIT but the College Basketball Crown is burdening their efforts
- Locked Out of Heaven: 0% NIT chance, too low
- Locked Into Hell: 0% NIT chance, going to the NCAA T*urnament
The other things to know are that if a team is bolded, that means that team moved across categories as a result of yesterday’s games, and if a team is in all caps, that means we expect them to receive an NIT invitation and we would, in the old world (and come again it shall), call them NIT locks. If we’re really concerned our model’s wrong about a team, we’ll adjust their category here, and Joe Stunardi will talk about it elsewhere on this website.
Today’s date is Friday, March 14th. For the most current NIT Bubble Watch, click here.
ACC: More Invitations
- Too Cold: Georgia Tech, Virginia
- Just Right: Florida State, North Carolina, PITT, SMU, STANFORD, WAKE FOREST
- Locked Out of Heaven: Boston College, Cal, Miami (FL), NC State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
- Locked Into Hell: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
SMU. Stanford. Wake Forest. All getting Invited. Stanford made it the most interesting, but they have a long way to go.
As for UNC?
We’re not done with them yet.
But they’re also not done with us.
SEC: NITexas Is Over, Right?
- Too Hot: Texas, Vanderbilt
- Just Right: LSU, South Carolina
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Our model has Texas 0% likely to make the NIT, and there are kind of two ways to think about that.
First: Our model might be wrong. The NCAA T*urnament committee might have made its mind up about Texas before all the games were played, or it might be uncomfortable putting fourteen SEC teams into the NCAA T*urnament. (Although: What about the last twenty years of college sports makes you think there’ll be discomfort putting too many SEC teams into that thing?)
Second: If Texas misses the NCAA T*urnament, it’s pretty hard to believe that they’ll keep Rodney Terry, and with it harder now to keep rosters together for NIT runs (because of the degradation of American society and also transfer rules), Texas does feel like a likelier opt-out than UNC or San Diego State.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot: VCU
- Too Cold: George Washington, Loyola Chicago, Saint Louis
- Just Right: Dayton, George Mason, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Perfect day yesterday for the A-10, who still has a path to six bids entering play today. Go win this conference tournament, George Washington. Be Revolutionary.
Great comeback by the Bonnies, by the way. That’s how you set the tone.
Mountain West: Maybe Next Year, Richard
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Nevada, UNLV
- Just Right: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
- Locked Into Hell: New Mexico, Utah State
New Mexico and Utah State are done. Nevada slipped back into the cold. It seems likeliest that at least one of our three teams is going to find its way into Hell, but each is individually in a solid spot. If you believe our model. If you believe the consensus, San Diego State’s getting into the NCAA T*urnament. Lobbyists, man. I tell ya.
Big Ten: Give Us Lil’ Red
- Too Hot: Indiana
- Too Cold: Minnesota, Washington
- Just Right: Iowa, Penn State, Rutgers
- It’s Complicated: Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, USC
- Locked Into Hell: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Lot of complications in the Big Ten right now. Purdue fans got chippy with USC, Fran McCaffery might get fired, Fran McCaffery has NIT and/or Crown intentions, Ohio State has a weird win–loss record, Northwestern’s opting out of at least the Crown because they don’t have enough healthy bodies to keep practicing for eight weeks, and Indiana still hangs around in purgatory.
I just hope we get Nebraska out of this. We need them to not get an automatic bid to the Crown. They’re a perfect NIT team, and they always pack that arena. Would be really nice if Indiana and Ohio State both missed the NCAA T*urnament. Would help the cause.
Big 12: What’s Up With Colorado?
- Just Right: Colorado, Oklahoma State, TCU
- It’s Complicated: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF, Utah
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Our model’s showing Colorado in the NIT field, and while a sub-.500 team got an at-large bid last year, Colorado’s 14–20. Long story short: We don’t know. We feel much better about getting TCU and Oklahoma State. I think Jamie Dixon knows basketball well enough that Brett Yormark can’t push him around.
Big East: DePaul Almost Did It Again
- Too Cold: DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall
- Just Right: Butler, Georgetown
- It’s Complicated: Villanova, Xavier
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
We’re waiting on Kyle Neptune news, but as the dust settles on our part of the Big East Tournament, Butler looks pretty good for a spot. In the meantime, then:
That would’ve been so fun for DePaul. If one good thing comes out of the Crown, it’s going to be more DePaul basketball in the 2024–25 season.
Big West: Cal State-Northridge’s Path
- Too Hot: UC San Diego
- Too Cold: Cal State-Northridge
- Just Right: UC Irvine
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
The Big West gets an exempt bid. If both UC Irvine and UC San Diego somehow make the NCAA T*urnament, that exempt bid goes to CSUN. Imagine CSUN hosting Pitt in a late-night NIT opener. That is a thing that can happen here.
Conference USA: Marching On
- Too Cold: Liberty
- Just Right: Middle Tennessee
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
MTSU survived Louisiana Tech in two overtimes, moving one step closer to making sure Liberty wins this conference tournament itself. Make that happen, and the Blue Raideres are with us, hosting in the first round as an exempt bid.
The American: FAU Won
- Too Cold: Florida Atlantic, UAB
- Just Right: North Texas
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else except Memphis
- Locked Into Hell: Memphis
FAU and UAB are in a race to be the NIT’s second exempt bid option in the American Athletic Conference. What a sentence we just wrote. Basically, if UNT wins the AAC Tournament, the exempt bid (and home game!) goes to one of those guys. Bartow Arena stands, you want FAU to go down today.
One-Bid Leagues: Akron & Yale
- Too Hot: Yale
- Just Right: Akron, Arkansas State, CHATTANOOGA, NORTHERN COLORADO
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else in the whole darn country
- Locked Into Hell: American, High Point, Lipscomb, McNeese, Montana, Omaha, Robert Morris, Saint Francis, SIU-Edwardsville, Troy, UNC Wilmington, Wofford
We’re waiting on two more names in the one-bid world. Akron and Yale are both automatic bid candidates in at-large territory. We want ‘em.
WCC
- Just Right: Oregon State, SAN FRANCISCO, SANTA CLARA
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s
- Locked Into Hell: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
WAC:
- Too Cold: Grand Canyon
- Just Right: Utah Valley
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Missouri Valley
- Too Cold: Northern Iowa
- Just Right: BRADLEY
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Drake
- Locked Into Hell: Drake
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