NIT Bubble Watch: Everything We Think and Know and Think We Know

Things are getting realer than Kyle Lowry’s butt.

Let’s watch this bubble.

NIT Bubble Watch works like other Bubble Watches except it’s better, focused on the right side of history. Here are the categories.

• Just Right: >50% NIT chance, per Joe Stunardi’s model
• Too Hot: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NCAA T*urnament
• Too Cold: <50% NIT chance, aimed below NIT
• It’s Complicated: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NIT but the College Basketball Crown is burdening their efforts
• Locked Out of Heaven: 0% NIT chance, too low
• Locked Into Hell: 0% NIT chance, going to the NCAA T*urnament

The other things to know are that if a team is bolded, that means that team moved across categories as a result of yesterday’s games, and if a team is in all caps, that means we expect them to receive an NIT invitation and we would, in the old world (and come again it shall), call them NIT locks. If we’re really concerned our model’s wrong about a team, we’ll adjust their category here, and Joe Stunardi will talk about it elsewhere on this website at some point before the Selection Show.

Today’s date is Saturday, March 15^th. For the most current NIT Bubble Watch, click here.

ACC: Pitt’s Still Cursed, UNC Might Not Be

• Retired: Florida State
• Fired: Virginia
• Recruiting: Pitt
• Too Cold: Notre Dame
• Just Right: Georgia Tech, North Carolina, SMU, STANFORD, WAKE FOREST
• Locked Out of Heaven: Boston College, Cal, Miami (FL), NC State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
• Locked Into Hell: Clemson, Duke, Louisville

Pitt announced yesterday that it’s declining the NIT, while Florida State continues to vaguely reference its season being over. Virginia hasn’t named a new interim to replace Ron Sanchez, the interim they dismissed. Combined with some other firings and opt-outs, this is enough to lift Georgia Tech into NITerritory, and to at least nominally resurrect Notre Dame’s case. (We don’t think it’s happening. Variety of reasons.) To go back to Pitt for a moment:

Jeff Capel has enjoyed three chances to be a head coach. He’s managed a winning record in just six of his twelve power conference seasons. He’s made the NCAA T*urnament once in seven years at Pitt.

Pitt said they’re declining the NIT so they can focus on next year. What they mean by this is they want Capel out recruiting, because clearly the players are the problem. This, of course, is silly. But at the same time…

The most damaging thing Pitt can do to this program is let Jeff Capel coach its basketball players. What changed between November, when Pitt was a top-15 team on kenpom, to the end of the season? Jeff Capel got more time with these guys.

So.

While Pitt got the reasoning wrong, I think they got the move right. The more they can keep Capel away from the court, the better.

With UNC’s loss to Duke (which was rendered mostly joyless by the manner in which it ended), the Tar Heels are probably headed our way. Will they accept? We don’t know. We asked Tate Frazier this week on Free Hoops. His take was worthwhile.

SMU and Stanford have made it sound like they’ll play, but we haven’t seen it explicitly confirmed. We haven’t heard anything on Wake Forest, having last looked for news last night. If two of those three and UNC were to decline, Georgia Tech would get the ACC’s third exempt bid and a home game.

SEC: NITexas?

• Too Hot: Texas
• Just Right: LSU, SOUTH CAROLINA
• Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
• Locked Into Hell: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

We’re just going to keep asking this question. We don’t know the answer. It would be pretty weird for the NCAA T*urnament committee to leave out a team with seven Q1 wins, but you can find reasons to exclude the Longhorns, and there might even be Texas fans wanting that, with the Rodney Terry bloodlust simmering. We’re kind of assuming Texas will fire Terry and not name an interim if they do make the NIT, but we don’t know that with any sort of certainty. Bottom line? It’s probably a two-bid league, provided LSU and South Carolina both play. (We think they will, but we know very little.)

Atlantic 10: What’s Going to Happen to VCU?

• Too Hot: VCU
• Too Cold: George Washington, Saint Louis
• Just Right: DAYTON, George Mason, Loyola Chicago, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
• Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else

With last night’s loss to Saint Joe’s, Dayton getting Invited. With yesterday’s win over Saint Louis, Loyola’s probably in the field themselves. Josh Schertz said he’d let SLU’s players vote if the NIT committee did offer them a spot. They’re bubbly.

One bubble team on the other bubble whom nobody’s brought up all that much? VCU. They’re favored to win the A-10 Tournament (favored over the field), but that’s far from a foregone conclusion. If they lose today, it could be a Q3 loss. If they win today but lose tomorrow, tomorrow’s would only be a Q2 loss. Our model doesn’t see them getting an at-large, but Bart Torvik’s has it around a 60/40 possibility if they do lose one of these two games. Big ramifications, and remember: The committee will probably make that decision before tomorrow’s game is played.

The other thing to watch today is George Mason’s KNIT vs. Dayton’s KNIT. KNIT is the average of the seven team sheet ratings, and it’s going to decide which of those two teams gets the A-10’s exempt bid and accompanying first round home game in the event VCU wins out. Dayton and GMU were separated by 1.4 places entering today, so if George Mason loses…we shall see. Tomorrow’s game won’t matter for KNIT. KNIT locks tomorrow morning, for purposes of the NIT.

Mountain West: Four Bids? Zero?

• Too Hot: Boise State
• Just Right: Colorado State, Nevada, San Diego State, UNLV
• Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else but New Mexico and Utah State
• Locked Into Hell: New Mexico, Utah State

Our model thinks San Diego State’s in the NIT, but it also thinks Ohio State’s in the NCAA T*urnament, so we might need to have a talk with our model. Definitely bubbly. Just a question of if it’ll pop.

Our model doesn’t think Boise State can get an NCAA T*urnament at-large bid, but again, our model’s really low—relative to the consensus—on how the NCAAT committee will view the Mountain West. I do think the consensus is wrong, but our model can be wrong too. Anyway, Torvik has Boise at 30/70 for an at-large NCAAT bid if they lose today.

UNLV gets the MWC’s exempt bid if the league does somehow put five teams in the NCAAT. Nevada’s said they want it, though, and the Crown is evidently calling Mountain West teams because it couldn’t get enough power conference schools to play. UNLV is in Las Vegas, so there’s some thought the Runnin’ Rebels could choose the Crown. Honestly? We’d kind of like that. The Reno connection to The Barking Crow’s past…the Steve Alford connection to Hinkle Fieldhouse…we like Nevada in this NIT. And to be clear, Nevada will probably get an at-large call. So we could get them anyway.

WCC: Oregon State!

• Too Cold: Washington State
• Just Right: Oregon State, SAN FRANCISCO, SANTA CLARA
• Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s
• Locked Into Hell: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

The great thing about the opt-outs is they might give us Oregon State. Beavers looking pretty NIT-likely as they wake up today. Also: If the MWC does send four or five teams to the NCAAT and the SEC only sends two to the NIT, Santa Clara could get a home game. If the SEC only sends two, we’re looking at fifteen exempt bids instead of sixteen.

As for Washington State…

Not dead yet.

Big 12: TCU. Please.

• Just Right: Colorado, Oklahoma State, TCU
• It’s Complicated: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF, Utah
• Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
• Locked Into Hell: Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

I kind of think K-State (and Northwestern) thought they had to play in the Crown, based on Jerome Tang and Chris Collins’s comments about the timeline. But either way, they’ve opted out of the postseason unless something wild is happening behind the scenes. ASU (who is 13–19) is going to the Crown. So is Utah. Cincinnati and UCF are the automatic bids.

That leaves Colorado, Oklahoma State, and TCU. Colorado’s 14–20, which doesn’t ban them from getting an exempt bid but could dissuade the NIT committee from giving them an at-large nod. Oklahoma State’s 15–17, and we’d think that’ll be fine? Xavier got in at 16–17 last year, and the committee should have to dig deeper this year.

Still, we really want TCU in it. Lot of great NIT memories with Jamie Dixon’s TCU. Plus, we’d probably get at least one of SMU/TCU, TCU/UNT, or UNT/SMU. And maybe two!

Big Ten: Nebraska Lives

• Too Hot:
• Too Cold: Washington
• Just Right: Penn State, Rutgers
• Fired: Iowa, Minnesota
• It’s Complicated: Indiana, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, USC
• Locked Into Hell: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

We talked about Northwestern already, but they’ve opted out of postseason play. Iowa and Minnesota didn’t name interim coaches, and Iowa’s explicitly confirmed now that they’re done. We haven’t seen anything from USC, Penn State, or Rutgers. We know Nebraska wants to play in something.

The consensus thinks Ohio State will miss the NCAA T*urnament, meaning they’ll get an automatic bid to the Crown. The consensus is on the fence about Indiana, but leans towards the Hoosiers staying in the NCAAT. We want the Hoosiers out of the NCAAT. Not because we could get them, but because if they receive an automatic bid to the Crown, Nebraska can choose us, as we think they should and will.

A big question looming over this is what happens if Indiana and Ohio State do both get Crown automatic bids but one of them declines. We’ve heard often that the Crown contracts between Fox Sports and the Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East say automatic bids can’t play in the NIT if they decline the Crown. What nobody seems to know is whether that extends to the next team who receives the automatic bid once the first team declines. If Indiana does get the Crown bid, but Indiana declines, does Nebraska have to play? We don’t know. We would guess they don’t, because we think the Crown would be saying something if they do. But who knows. The Crown is not run by people with a great understanding of college basketball. It’s run by more cynical versions of Brett Yormark.

Potentially helping the cause? Northwestern could pass Nebraska today in the NET/KPI average, which is what determines the Crown’s automatic bids. Nebraska’s at 57.5. Northwestern’s at 58.5. If Liberty wins big, they could potentially pass Nebraska in NET. If Colorado State loses badly, they could potentially fall past Northwestern. More realistically, Saint Joseph’s might be able to fall past Northwestern in KPI with a loss. We need two or three of those things to happen, though, so frankly…it’s pretty unlikely. Maybe we can get some wiggling thanks to results from teams Nebraska and Northwestern have played. Northwestern played Wisconsin twice, so a great day by the Badgers could maybe move the Cats at least an inch?

If you think I am desperately wanting Nebraska in the NIT because their fanbase shows up and Fred Hoiberg seems like a great guy and I will always remember the Johnny Trueblood game from 2019…yes. Exactly. You get it. Great for the NIT to have Nebraska in it. Great for Nebraska too, and I honestly mean that. Let’s get some bid stealers to knock Indiana the fuck out of the park. Give Mike Woodson the finish he deserves.

Penn State and Rutgers, would love to have you guys too. Would always love to have Penn State and Rutgers.

Big East: Villanova Named an Interim

• Too Cold: DePaul, Providence
• Just Right: Georgetown
• It’s Complicated: Butler, Villanova, Xavier
• Locked Out of Heaven: Seton Hall
• Locked Into Hell: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn

It sounds like the Big East exempt bid won’t fall past DePaul, which means Seton Hall’s repeat quest is finally officially dead. Thought it was dead already? That’s fair.

Villanova’s done with Kyle Neptune but did name an interim coach (Mike Nardi), which implies they intend to keep playing. That would be in the Crown. Xavier’s probably also Crown-bound, though their NCAA T*urnament case isn’t completely dead? Maybe they can knock Indiana down and we’ll get Nebraska and (ok sorry I’ll shut up about Nebraska).

Butler’s ahead of Georgetown by both the NET/KPI average and KNIT, but the losing record and the potential for Xavier to make the NCAAT has them back into “It’s Complicated.” Georgetown will be getting Invited if they don’t get the exempt bid or get kidnapped into the Crown.

Missouri Valley: UNI?

• Too Cold: Northern Iowa
• Just Right: BRADLEY
• Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Drake
• Locked Into Hell: Drake

Bradley’s in, and we think they’ll play Loyola again unless SLU joins the party (and even then, SLU would be a little easier to send south and/or west). Northern Iowa’s creeping up the board as we process opt-outs.

The American: Party Like Its 2023

• Too Cold: Florida Atlantic, UAB
• Just Right: North Texas
• Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else except Memphis
• Locked Into Hell: Memphis

How about this wrinkle? If the committee does value name brands (lots of people who don’t pay attention think that it does), FAU might fit that category. What a world.

North Texas has the exempt bid if they don’t win the AAC Tournament. UAB’s got it if the Mean Green do win the AAC Tournament. UAB’s hovering around at-large territory but probably needs to make up ground. If anyone can do that, it’s Yaxel Lendeborg and Andy Kennedy. Does Kennedy find legends or create them? Between Jelly Walker and Trey Jemison and Lendeborg…UAB has been iconic in the 2020’s. Cult heroes everywhere.

Conference USA: Feeling Blue (Raiders)

• Too Cold: Liberty
• Just Right: Middle Tennessee
• Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else

If Liberty loses today, they get Conference USA’s exempt bid, but you already knew that. If Liberty wins today, MTSU gets Conference USA’s exempt bid, but you already knew that too. What we’re all wondering is MTSU’s at-large potency, and I’m here to tell you: Bubble.

Big West: Yes. YES. YES!!!

• Too Hot: UC San Diego
• Too Cold: Cal State-Northridge
• Just Right: UC Irvine
• Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else

We won’t get two Big West teams, except…we could get two Big West teams? There’s still a chance for Cal State-Northridge. (The Matadors are also lined up for the Big West’s exempt bid if both UCSD and UCI get conscripted into the “big dance.” What a euphemism.)

WAC: Automatic, Not Exempt

• Too Cold: Grand Canyon
• Just Right: Utah Valley
• Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else

The Big West is the twelfth-best conference by kenpom, so exempt bids end here. Utah Valley’s in line for an automatic bid, though, and Grand Canyon should get an at-large if UVU wins tonight.

SoCon: SoCon??

• Too Cold: Samford, Furman
• Just Right: CHATTANOOGA
• Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else

So, two things could be happening with our model, which has lifted a few teams onto the periphery. The first could be that we underestimated the number of opt-outs when we built it, so now, it’s adjusting. The second could be that the teams who’ve said nothing all intend to play, and that the cut line will move back to its original position. We’ve told the model about teams who are opting out. We’ve had fewer teams say with certainty they’re opting in. If they all play, Samford and Furman are completely out of the picture. If we start getting a landslide of opt-outs, they’re in the picture.

Chattanooga got the automatic bid. Smart move.

One-Bid Leagues: Akron & Yale & Arkansas State

• Too Hot: Akron, Yale
• Just Right: Arkansas State, NORTHERN COLORADO
• Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else in the whole darn country
• Locked Into Hell: American, Bryant, High Point, Lipscomb, McNeese, Montana, Omaha, Robert Morris, Saint Francis, SIU-Edwardsville, Troy, UNC Wilmington, Wofford

Bryant won this morning. Condolences. They weren’t coming with us anyway, but condolences.

Yale also won this morning. They get one more chance.

Arkansas State should get an at-large bid. Northern Colorado got an automatic bid. The NIT enjoys grassroots support from all across the country in a number of different demographics. Makes you think.

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