I have a theory, and that theory is this:
I think last night was Duck St. Patrick’s Day. As in St. Patrick’s Day, but for ducks.
Why do I think this?
This morning, Fargo and I (Fargo is my dog) went for a walk through Fargo’s favorite park. It’s a block from our house and it has a nice natural bowl in which dogs run around off-leash. There’s also a tastefully landscaped retention pond. There are a lot of ducks.
To give you an idea of our own frame of mind, I had let Fargo play off-leash for 25 seconds before we approached the ducks. I would have given her more run, but she’d spent the 15th through 20th seconds of that stint knocking a woman’s iced coffee out of said woman’s hands then licking the icy mess as it seeped into the ground. I was tired. Fargo was caffeinated to an unknown extent. We charged ahead at the ducks.
The first group of ducks we encountered were doing normal duck things. The latter ones were too, I guess, but there was nothing noteworthy about the early ducks. Swimming. Standing. Sitting. You know, duck stuff.
Then, we saw a duck standing on top of a garbage can. And just as I laughed, because the duck looked very silly standing on top of a garbage can, the duck took a nice little shit. On top of the garbage can.
We passed the shitting garbage can. The sidewalk turned to follow the retention pond’s shore. Fargo trotted along ahead of me, eyes wild, tongue out. I began to pull her left, off the sidewalk. Why? Because on the sidewalk ahead of us, maybe 100 feet past the garbage can shitter, two ducks were doing it. And if you’ve never seen ducks do it…well, I’ll spare you the image. Just know that it’s more disturbing than it is with other birds.
Clearly, these ducks were still drunk. Most of the party was done, back to work, but these three? Hammered. At eight in the morning.
Happy Duck St. Patrick’s Day to the ducks. This had nothing to do with the NIT, but not a lot happened yesterday.
NIT Bubble Watch works like other Bubble Watches except it’s better, focused on the right side of history. Here are the categories.
- Just Right: >50% NIT chance, per Joe Stunardi’s model
- Too Hot: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NCAA T*urnament
- Too Cold: <50% NIT chance, aimed below NIT
- It’s Complicated: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NIT but the College Basketball Crown is burdening their efforts
- Locked Out of Heaven: 0% NIT chance, too low
- Locked Into Hell: 0% NIT chance, going to the NCAA T*urnament
The only other thing to know is that if a team is bolded, that means that team moved across categories as a result of yesterday’s games. If a team is in all caps, that means we expect them to receive an NIT invitation and we would, in the old world (and come again it shall), call them NIT locks.
Today’s date is Tuesday, March 11th. For the most current NIT Bubble Watch, click here.
WCC: California, Here We Come
- Too Hot: Gonzaga
- Too Cold: Oregon State
- Just Right: SAN FRANCISCO, SANTA CLARA
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Saint Mary’s
- Locked Into Hell: Saint Mary’s
They gave it their best shot. Or at least a better one than usual. Either way, San Francisco lost to Gonzaga last night for the 33rd straight time. This was expected (33 straight, after all), and the outcome is still a good one for the Dons. They could’ve probably improved their seed with a win, but they’re getting a home game for sure this way. If they lost, they might’ve given that up to Gonzaga if enough bid thieves showed up this week.
So, welcome back, San Francisco. Unfinished business.
One-Bid Leagues:
- Too Hot: McNeese, Yale
- Too Cold: Arkansas State, UNC Wilmington
- Just Right: Akron, CHATTANOOGA, Northern Colorado
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else in the whole darn country
- Locked Into Hell: High Point, Lipscomb, Omaha, SIU-Edwardsville, Troy, Wofford
It’s not looking good for UNC Wilmington, but after last night’s win, the Seahawks do still have some sort of chance. They’ll need a lot of help, and Delaware beating Towson hurt (worse loss this way if they do lose), but this was their path from the conference tournament’s outset. Since the start of CAAction, they’ve done what they can do.
Elsewhere, down in the Sun Belt, Arkansas State navigated the conference tournament perfectly. We’ll see if it’s enough, but the Red Wolves should at least keep their phones nearby come Sunday afternoon.
Big Ten: No Games, Some Updates
- Too Hot: Indiana, Ohio State
- Too Cold: Washington
- Just Right: Iowa, Penn State, Rutgers, USC
- It’s Complicated: Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers
- Locked Into Hell: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Warning: Model Talk Ahead
The Big Ten didn’t play yesterday, but we made a couple little tweaks to our model, one of which better reflects the likelihood Nebraska plays in the Crown if automatically invited. (Crown auto-bids are purportedly legally bound from playing in the NIT, setting a new record for Worst Contract Ever Signed.) The result? Iowa and Penn State are looking pretty good.
ACC
- Too Cold: Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia
- Just Right: Florida State, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Wake Forest
- Locked Out of Heaven: Boston College, Cal, Miami (FL), NC State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
- Locked Into Hell: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
SEC
- Too Hot: Arkansas, Georgia, Vanderbilt
- Just Right: LSU, South Carolina, Texas
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot: VCU
- Too Cold: George Washington, Loyola Chicago, Saint Louis
- Just Right: Dayton, George Mason, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Mountain West
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Utah State
- Too Cold: Nevada, UNLV
- Just Right: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Big 12
- Too Cold: Colorado
- Just Right: TCU, UCF
- It’s Complicated: Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Big West
- Too Hot: UC San Diego
- Too Cold: Cal State-Northridge
- Just Right: UC Irvine
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Big East
- Too Cold: DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall
- Just Right: Georgetown
- It’s Complicated: Butler, Villanova, Xavier
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
Conference USA
- Too Cold: Middle Tennessee
- Just Right: Liberty
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Missouri Valley
- Too Cold: Northern Iowa
- Just Right: BRADLEY
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Drake
- Locked Into Hell: Drake
The American
- Too Cold: Florida Atlantic, UAB
- Just Right: North Texas
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else except Memphis
- Locked Into Hell: Memphis
WAC
- Too Cold: Grand Canyon
- Just Right: Utah Valley
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
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If you’re looking for intel on today’s games, we’ve got that right here.
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