This NIT Bubble Watch is for Tuesday, March 12th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.
ESPN put a graphic up last night referring to San Francisco as San Framcoscp. This was silly and made a lot of people giggle. Does it have an impact? That’s where the story gets wild. The Dons did not lose to Gonzaga last night. The Domscps did. This is a breakthrough for San Francisco’s NIT case.
In other news, we are very sad about JMU. We liked the Dukes a lot. Up and coming athletic department across the board. What an NIT title could have done for Harrisonburg.
But, the NIT is selective. It doesn’t take just anyone. As we always say, you have to earn it, and at the end of the day, James Madison didn’t do what it takes.
Welcome to NIT Bubble Watch. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.
Guidelines:
- Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
- Just Right: >50% NIT probability
- Lock: 100% NIT probability (this can only happen once a team’s conference tournament is completed)
Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture are combined at the bottom. Like gluteally conjoined twins.
ACC
- Too Hot: Virginia
- Too Cold: Florida State, Boston College
- Just Right: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest
They’ve got TVs on carts in classrooms across North Carolina, as the children wait to see who’ll make the NIT:
- NC State vs. Louisville
- Boston College vs. Miami
Both BC and NC State need to win these. Simple as that. The NIT? It’s all about winning. That’s what we always say.
To go into more detail: NC State won’t yet be safe with a win. They might still need to beat Syracuse. Boston College will be far from safe with a win. If Miami wins, they’ll probably reenter the picture, but on the very, very edge. They made the NCAA T*urnament’s Final Four last year. It’s not like they accomplished anything.
Big East
- Too Hot: Seton Hall
- Too Cold: Xavier
- Just Right: Butler, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova
Big Ten
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State
- Just Right: Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State
Big 12
- Too Hot: TCU, Oklahoma
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: UCF, Kansas State, Cincinnati
The Big 12 Tournament:
- UCF vs. Oklahoma State
- Cincinnati vs. West Virginia
UCF and Oklahoma State are already into the second half, and UCF’s got the lead, which might be enough to earn them a home game whether they get an automatic bid or not. Fans of the War on I-4, rejoice.
Cincinnati’s not missing the NIT low, but they’re in the mix for a 2-seed, which is a pretty valuable seed because usually the 1-seeds are all a little sad about having to go to our party instead of the other one. Jerks.
If Cincinnati does lose, they’ll be our first NIT lock. So, I mean, there’s an incentive to take a dive.
Atlantic 10
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Duquesne, UMass, George Mason, St. Bonaventure
- Just Right: Richmond, Loyola (IL), VCU
Six A-10 teams play today.
None of them are remotely near NIT contention.
Pac-12
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Oregon, Washington, Utah
*Jean-Ralphio voice*
Still nervous that our model’s wrong about Coloradoooooo!
SEC
- Too Hot: Mississippi State
- Too Cold: Georgia, Arkansas
- Just Right: Mississippi, LSU
*Jean-Ralphio but with an awkward twang*
Texas A&M tooooooooo!
American Athletic Conference
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Memphis, South Florida, SMU
Mountain West
- Too Hot:
- Too Cold: Colorado State
- Just Right: UNLV, New Mexico
Missouri Valley
- Too Hot: Indiana State
- Too Cold:
- Just Right: Bradley
Ivy League
- Too Hot: Princeton
- Too Cold: Cornell, Yale
- Just Right:
The Rest (Now Featuring San Francisco and Appalachian State!)
- Too Hot: Grand Canyon, McNeese
- Too Cold: San Francisco, UC Irvine
- Just Right: Appalachian State
San Francisco’s in a dangerous place after the loss. Would the Dons play in the CBI or the potentially resurrected CIT? (The CIT is claiming to exist again, but I’m not sure I’m convinced.) We really don’t know. Bill Russell, this is what they’ve done with the place.
Saint Mary’s is pretty much done after failing to lose to Santa Clara. Could the Gaels get back into the picture by getting smoked by Gonzaga? Yes, but they’d be on the edge. Kind of blurry. One of those things where Instagram crops out half the face and you don’t know if you should even throw them a tag.
Samford was always only dipping its toes in NIT waters, either too likely to win the SoCon Tournament or too likely to miss the NIT on the low end to be taken seriously. Now, we’re done with them. Enjoy…whatever it is you’re doing.
And finally, JMU. Ugh. I had no idea how miserable it could be to watch Arkansas State play basketball. That was an atrocity. And I’m an NIT blogger!
ToNITe:
- McNeese vs. Lamar
This is the first of two chances for McNeese to lose the Southland Conference Tournament, which is being held at McNeese and features Southland Conference teams, two things that do not help McNeese’s NIT hopes. That said, Lamar did almost upset McNeese over in Beaumont late in the regular season, and I’m still unclear on whether we think Will Wade is a good coach or just a good runner of programs in the over-the-table age. If they lose, McNeese is almost definitely with us, but probably isn’t quite a lock. CBI risk. Not NC*AT risk.
Total count:
- Too hot – 9 teams (11 yesterday)
- Too cold – 17 teams (16 yesterday)
- Just right – 30 teams (30 yesterday)
