Good morning, you beautiful NIT fan. You made it. Daylight has been saved (from what, I never know), and we’re seven days away from finding out who in the gosh darn heck is going to play in this year’s NIT.
What a gosh darn heck it is.
You might be familiar with Bubble Watch already—credit to Eamonn Brennan, who certainly popularized the concept and may have even created it—but you might not be familiar with NIT Bubble Watch. In case you aren’t, here are the categories at this point in the season. Make sure you really internalize this. There are people here who will kick your ass if they think you’re faking it. I should know. I paid them to do it.
- Just Right: >50% NIT chance, per Joe Stunardi’s model
- Too Hot: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NCAA T*urnament
- Too Cold: <50% NIT chance, aimed below NIT
- It’s Complicated: <50% NIT chance, aimed at NIT but the College Basketball Crown is burdening their efforts
- Locked Out of Heaven: 0% NIT chance, too low
- Locked Into Hell: 0% NIT chance, going to the NCAA T*urnament
The only other thing to know is that if a team is bolded, that means that team moved across categories after yesterday’s action. Hopefully for their sake, they’re moving towards us.
Today’s date is Sunday, March 9th. If you didn’t pick that up from context clues or the little place it’s written above, that’s when. this was posted. For the most current NIT Bubble Watch, click here.
ACC: Can’t You See the Sunshine? Can’t You Just Feel the Moonshine?
- Too Cold: Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia
- Just Right: Florida State, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Wake Forest
- Locked Out of Heaven: Boston College, Cal, Miami (FL), NC State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
- Locked Into Hell: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
North Carolina dodged Duke, leaving the Tar Heels squarely in our sights. The haters keep saying UNC will opt out like last time. To that we say: How’d it work out last time?
The only way out of the NIT is through.
(Shoutout to Florida State for really bolstering its case with the win over SMU. Shoutout to Cal, who played very hard in their fatal four-overtime loss to Notre Dame. We still love you, Mark Madsen.)
SEC: Oh Texas
- Too Hot: Arkansas, Georgia, Vanderbilt
- Just Right: LSU, South Carolina, Texas
- Locked Into Hell: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
I’ve ripped on Texas and Oklahoma a lot over the years for calling each other archrivals. They clearly hate Texas A&M and Oklahoma State more. Credit where credit is due, then: Oklahoma probably ended its NIT chances last night, all to make Texas fans wail and moan. Hate, at its purest, always involves hurting oneself.
Atlantic 10: It Was Fran Dunphy Day
- Too Hot: VCU
- Too Cold: George Washington, Loyola Chicago, Saint Louis
- Just Right: Dayton, George Mason, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Scary times for Saint Joe’s, but La Salle isn’t that bad. You can lose a road game to La Salle and get away with it. This year, anyway.
Speaking of road games: Davidson might be bad, but winning at Belk Arena still plays. St. Bonaventure, welcome back to the right side of history. You’re not in our NIT Bracketology yet, but you’re in prime position.
(VCU slipped back past 50%. No big shift there. Just hit it at the right spot.)
Mountain West: Re-No!
- Too Hot: New Mexico, Utah State
- Too Cold: Nevada, UNLV
- Just Right: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State
- Locked Out of Heaven: Air Force, Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming
Nevada was making a stealthy little push, but that was a butt-kicking down at San Diego State. At least they managed to make the final score a little respectable.
Big 12: Feeling OK (State)
- Just Right: Kansas State, UCF, TCU
- It’s Complicated: Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Utah
- Locked Out of Heaven: (vacant)
- Locked Into Hell: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
A lot happened on the Big 12’s final day, but the biggest things in our world were Oklahoma State (beat Cincinnati) and Colorado (stomped TCU) making the NIT a possibility. The Big 12 NIT picture is a mess because we don’t know who’ll get hoodwinked and who’ll get coerced by the Crown, but there are options. Lot of options. We could have nine Big 12 teams. We could have zero. Our best guess right now is three, with a few just calling the season quits.
WCC: The Dam Broke
- Too Hot: Gonzaga
- Too Cold: Oregon State, Washington State
- Just Right: San Francisco, Santa Clara
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else besides Saint Mary’s
- Locked Into Hell: Saint Mary’s
Oregon State…oh man.
We were really excited about the Beavers. We love everything about Oregon State. If you missed last night, they lost to Pepperdine last night, and if you missed the last (large number) of years, losing to Pepperdine is really, really bad.
It’s not over yet. Maybe things will change around them. But if the tide doesn’t shift…we’ll miss you, Parsa Fallah.
(Keep an eye on old friends Washington State, by the way. Hanging around, and they get San Francisco without Marcus Williams tonight.)
Big Ten: There Goes Mike He-Rhoades (Sung to the Tune of “There Goes My Hero”)
- Too Hot: Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State
- Too Cold: Washington
- It’s Complicated: Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, USC
- Locked Into Hell: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
I don’t know whether beating Wisconsin helped Penn State’s NIT chances. I think it really didn’t. I think they’re getting invited to the Crown. But in the long run, I think I can live with a world where Penn State reiterated the one grand truth regarding Penn State basketball: These guys will always be a pain in everybody’s ass.
Big West: Zot!
- Too Hot: UC San Diego
- Too Cold: Cal State-Northridge
- Just Right: UC Irvine
UC Irvine was already in a good NIT spot, and if anything this made the prospect of them winning the Big West Tournament scarier. But we need to mention that the Anteaters trailed UC Santa Barbara by 17 points late in the first half last night at the Thunderdome, and that they then scored 67 in the second half to get the win. In the Thunderdome! UC Irvine. What a program. One of these days I’ll remember which Europe Bent Leuchten’s from.
The American
- Too Cold: Florida Atlantic, UAB, Wichita State
- Just Right: North Texas
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
- Locked Into Hell: Memphis
Conference USA: Semi-Automatic
- Too Cold: Middle Tennessee
- Just Right: Liberty
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else, including Jacksonville State
There will not be an automatic bid in Conference USA, but there will be an exempt bid. What does that mean? Only that the pecking order’s clear now. There was a chance that Middle Tennessee or Jacksonville State would win Conference USA and give the league both an automatic bid and an exempt bid. Now, it’s just an exempt bid. But MTSU still gets an NIT home game if Liberty wins the Conference USA Tournament.
Big East: DePaul Is a Friend, Not a Foe
- Too Cold: DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall
- Just Right: Georgetown
- It’s Complicated: Butler, Villanova, Xavier
- Locked Into Hell: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
The long and short of DePaul beating Georgetown yesterday is that it helped Georgetown’s NIT chances. There’s complicated logic behind this, logic tied to the Crown and how many teams will opt out of the Crown (hopefully, all of them!), but that’s the bottom line. DePaul helped Georgetown. Nobody can do it alone.
Missouri Valley: One-Bid League (Probably)
- Too Hot: Drake
- Too Cold: Northern Iowa
- Just Right: Bradley
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
We had dreams of Valpo making an Arch Madness run, but it’s a one-bid situation. Either Bradley or Drake will make the NIT, with the tiniest chance Northern Iowa sneaks in as a second bid. Quite tiny, that chance.
WAC: The Green Men!
- Too Cold: Grand Canyon
- Just Right: Utah Valley
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else
Utah Valley and Grand Canyon came down to Texas. Utah Valley took care of business, surviving in Stephenville. Grand Canyon did not take care of business, asphyxiating in Abilene. UVU: Outright WAC champions. Hard to see Grand Canyon threading the conference tournament needle.
SoCon: Bon Voyage to Bucky Ball
- Just Right: Chattanooga
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else, including Samford
Chattanooga’s still playing for an automatic bid, one which once looked destined to land with Samford. Alas. It’s not that we don’t like the Mocs. It’s that we care enough about Birmingham to know what Samford vs. UAB could do for that town. Here ends our SoCon section. Tomorrow, Chattanooga will sit at the One-Bid Leagues table.
One-Bid Leagues: The Greater High Point Conspiracy
- Too Hot: High Point, McNeese, Yale
- Too Cold: Arkansas State, UNC Wilmington
- Just Right: Akron, Northern Colorado
- Locked Out of Heaven: Everybody else in the whole darn country
- Locked Into Hell: Omaha, SIU-Edwardsville
I finally re-learned the current college basketball five–seconds rule yesterday. The closely guarded variant. If you’ve been wondering why it is and isn’t called: The ball-handler is safe from it if they’re in the backcourt and/or dribbling. Which is why that High Point dude who traveled twice yesterday (in an attempt to make the NIT, we presume) should have only been called for traveling, and not also five seconds.
**
We should be back with more every day between now and Sunday. If you’re looking for details on today’s games, we’re publishing previews of those over here.
**
