The bracket below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.
We aren’t currently running our full model. That will come soon, but in the meantime, here’s how this works.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, we have that too.
- Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
- A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament. We currently estimate five to be the likeliest number of automatic bids, and we’ve given these five to the conference favorites we estimate to be likeliest to receive them.
Last Updated: Preseason
Mississippi Region
| 1. Mississippi* |
| Virginia |
| 4. Northern Iowa* |
| Nebraska |
| 3. Louisville* |
| Ohio** |
| 2. Missouri* |
| New Mexico |
LSU Region
| 1. LSU* |
| College of Charleston** |
| 4. Louisiana Tech* |
| SMU |
| 3. UAB* |
| Georgia |
| 2. Northwestern* |
| Notre Dame |
Miami (FL) Region
| 1. Miami (FL)* |
| Wofford** |
| 4. San Francisco* |
| Nevada |
| 3. Seton Hall* |
| Syracuse |
| 2. Boise State* |
| Penn State |
VCU Region
| 1. VCU* |
| Appalachian State** |
| 4. Seattle* |
| Minnesota |
| 3. Arizona State* |
| South Carolina |
| 2. NC State* |
| High Point** |
Note: With the College Basketball Crown expected to take two teams each from the Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten, we have removed TCU, USC, Rutgers, Providence, UCF, and Butler from our projected field. In our projection, they would each be higher in line for an exempt bid than the recipient from their respective league.
Any chance UNLV makes the NIT?
Yes, definitely within striking distance. Big pair of opportunities coming up this weekend/next week. Not sure they can get in with just one upset in those two, but they’re already decently close, and that would get them closer. They’re also at a spot where their margin of victory/defeat matters a lot, because it influences KenPom and NET.
Thanks!!
What happened to Santa Clara?
They just got bumped out by Drake swapping over from being an NCAAT auto-bid in our method. They’re still right on the bubble, so 50/50 shot or so right now. I’d guess they need to get to 24 wins to safely get in, but they may be able to get through with 23.
What about Syracuse?
The only things going for them are that they have a decent overall W/L record and some fans think the committee will take them based on the size of their brand. I think what Syracuse fans need to hope on is that the NIT committee thinks the ratings systems are really wrong about the ACC. Unfortunately for Syracuse, we’re coming off a year where the committee seemed very, very tied to ratings systems. Especially NET and KenPom.
Need three more wins, they get to 19 wins they will get a bid. Anything less they may get left out because of their horrible metrics in the NET and KenPom
I guess they cuse fans have given up on hoping for an NIT bid.
Where’s Vandy? I get their NET and KenPom are high 80s, but Vandy is 4-7 in Q1 and 3-3 in Q2 with wins over Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, at Florida (with Castleton), and Pittsburgh. What more do they have to do to lock up an NIT spot? If Vandy wins 3 of next 4 (@LSU, Florida, @Kentucky, Ms State) they’ll be in the Bubble conversation and a potential top 4 seed in the SEC with that last game against MS State becoming an NCAA tournament play in game. How many more wins do they need to make NIT and then NCAA tournament, in your opinion?
They’re projecting as our second team out right now (https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology-rundown-february-20th/), so it could be as simple as getting 10 auto-bids instead of 12. The NET and KenPom are killer, but it’s possible the committee pivots away from those after leaning on them heavily this year. Basically: They’re almost equivalent to Drake/UAB/Cincy for us. The pack is tight.
I’d be really surprised if they’re out IF they win three more from here (including SEC Tournament) or if they post a positive point differential from here. Beat LSU and Florida by double digits each and it should be enough. But then again: The NIT committee is a bit of a wildcard. South Carolina’s looked in a couple times in the last five or six years and wound up empty. It’s hard to safely be an NIT team.
As a Vandy Alum I can tell you we get no respect. Who do we have to beat? Stack has them playing great.
Well, Grambling would’ve helped.
What does Nebraska have to do to make it?
First thing is getting to .500 overall. Then, probably need to get their NET and KenPom up around 80 or into the 70s if the committee operates like it did last year.
Is Nebraska in the NIT talks yet?
At the very least, we assume they need to get to .500 overall, which means they almost definitely have to beat Minnesota and Michigan State here coming up. After that, two good numbers to watch are whether or not they get their NET and KenPom up past 80th in the country. If they’re in the 70s in those and they’re .500 overall, we’d expect them to make it.
Thoughts on Washington State? 77 in the NET and you were way off last year with them…losing record but they somehow have a high NET, it’s similar to last year. Last year you had them out, and they ended up in as a 4 seed.
We did really miss Washington State last year.
The NIT hasn’t taken a sub-.500 team in the current format, even in 2021 when there were a lot of otherwise qualified teams. Our impression is that this is an unofficial rule, but we don’t know that for sure. If it is a rule, Washington State’s in a really tough spot already having 15 losses. That’s what’s keeping them out of our field right now.
Okay well, now they aren’t sub .50, so what’s the reason now?
We don’t update these with live results, Lionel. They’ll be in there tomorrow if they’re still favored against Washington by morning, as we’ve been saying they will be for weeks if they can get their end-of-season projection above .500. They’re a 1-point favorite against Washington right now and they either need to win that or win two in the Pac-12 Tournament IF (and I know you don’t read what we write, so I don’t know why I’m saying this) the .500 rule still exists, which is always unclear.
Where does Georgia sit after the win over Kentucky? What would they need to go garner a spot?
A big number to watch with Georgia is their KenPom ranking. Sitting past 100 in that is bad news. My guess would be that they need to win four more from here to be in the picture, but that includes the SEC Tournament. We’re trying to have more detailed projections and thresholds as Selection Sunday gets closer, so stay tuned for that.
I want Georgia in the nit
What does Vanderbilt have to do to end the season to get into NIT? I’m thinking win 3 more conference games and then a game in the SEC tourney. That would put them at 16-17 (9-11) if u include SEC tournament into their record. That’s got to be enough right?
It’s unclear if this is an official rule or not, but the NIT doesn’t select sub-.500 teams these days. In any scenario where Vanderbilt can get to .500, they’ll probably have done enough to make the cut, but they need to get to .500.
Go Dawgs !!
Santa Clara?
Projecting to finish as the second team out! As of yesterday. So smack dab on the bubble if everyone does what’s expected of them from here.
https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology-rundown-february-13th/
If Duquesne loses to St Louis but wins the other six games they have, which would almost certainly get them a double bye in the a-10 tournament, does a semifinal run in the A-10 tournament get us an NIT shot?
Thanks for the question. It depends a lot on their scoring margin. They’re already projected to finish something like 6-4 from here, and your scenario is only a 7-2 finish, which isn’t that much better. If they can really blow some teams out and juice their KenPom rating (and NET, to a lesser but still significant extent), that’ll help them get into the conversation. Otherwise, they’re so far out right now (they were behind Kennesaw State in our Monday projection) that winning the A-10 Tournament outright might be likelier.
I can’t believe that Syracuse is not on this list. I understand they have a couple bad loses in the beginning of the year. With as many freshman on this team that start and how opponents only have to lock down Joe Girard. They have one blow out lost in this middle part of the schedule by VT but the rest of their loses are only by single digits. They have been competitive against Miami, UVA, Pitt, UNC..
I am hoping they get a couple big wins going down the stretch and beat who they should and get to 18 or 19 wins..
Please tell us why they don’t make the NIT??
Thanks
It’s a great question.
The last at-large into the NIT should be somewhere around the 75th-best team in the country after the NCAA Tournament is set and automatic bids have been awarded. Syracuse is only in the top 75 of one of the six ratings systems the NCAA puts on team sheets, and that’s Sagarin, which has one of the weaker correlations with eventual selection/seeding.
Syracuse has only beaten one Q1 or Q2 team and they have two Q3 losses. The Colgate and Bryant losses came early in the season, but Syracuse hasn’t really done much to show that isn’t who they are. They’ve been competitive in five of their ACC losses, like you said, but their wins are really lacking. Even the Q2 win came when Hunter Cattoor was hurt for Virginia Tech.
They’re projecting to finish 18-14, and our estimate says that would put them within ten or twelve teams of the NIT. With their team sheet what it currently is, they’ll probably need to win at least 20 (maybe 21), finish hot (so they have a strong KenPom rating, which the committee seems to trust a lot), or get a lot of help around the bubble (few NIT automatic bids, bad finishes by teams like Santa Clara and Tulane). Best of luck, and thanks for reading.
So as far as Syracuse goes, I think it depends on who they beat down the stretch. Right now 15-10 and 8-6 in the ACC with no good wins other than against a depleted Va. Tech team isn’t NIT worthy. However, they have six games left five of which are quad 1 or 2. They get three wins and beat Ga. Tech that puts them at 19-12 (31 games) pre-ACC Tournament, that is LOCK NIT, I don’t care where their NET is. 18-13 probably is enough but might be sweat with wins over Wake, Ga Tech and either NC State or Duke or at Clemson or Pitt. The NIT is not passing on Syracuse for some nobody, they have NEVER been snubbed for the NIT in 50 years, when eligible to play.
If Bradley doesn’t win the MVC tournament are they an NIT team?
I hope so, but it’s not looking headed that way right now. More on them here: https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology-rundown-february-6th/
Do you think with the Cincinnati Quad 2 win over UCF on 2/4 that they will now move in or be in the last four out in your next release of the brackets?
They stayed in about the same place on our seed list with this update – one of the top unseeded teams. Our model takes expected future results into account, so while that was a good win, the computer knew it was more likely than not coming in, so it didn’t move the needle too much. Tomorrow night’s a big one. The median expectation right now is that Cincinnati will go 5-4 from here, and that’s one of the likelier losses.
No love for Western Illinois?
Go Leathernecks, but no. Our regrets.
Landers Nolley back to VT for an NIT showdown!
🔥🔥🔥
Now that Michigan is 11-10 (NET ranking of 83 with 0-8 record in Quad-1 games; only Big Ten team without a Quad-1 win; 5-5 in Big Ten with two of those wins against Minnesota, the worst team in the conference), if they go worse than 5-5 in their final 10 regular-season games, would you still have them in the NIT field?
Given they’d be favored to lose before winning two Big Ten Tournament games, they can’t finish with an overall record of .500 or better if they go worse than 5-5 over these last ten regular season games. We have yet to see the NIT committee let a sub-.500 team in under the current setup, so we would expect them to be out.
With Syracuse going 9-2 over their last games, if coupled with a win tonight at Miami, do you see them getting onto your list?
That would be a great win for them right now. I’m not sure it would be enough to get them into the projected field on its own, but it’d point them in the right direction and definitely get them close. Lot of opportunities coming up the rest of the month. Still haven’t beaten a surefire NCAA Tournament team, so getting one against Miami/UNC/UVA might be necessary, and getting VT on the road instead of just at home would be a big deal.
These rankings are stupid!!!
Your mom’s stupid, Big jack!!!
What is stupid is the NIT ceasing to seed teams 1 thru 8 in each of their quads or “regions”. This is done simply to create more regional matchups. Toledo got absolutely brutalized because of this last year. No way the MAC regular season champ is an NIT eight seed but they had to play the one seed.
I know it would never be done in the NCAA tournament but once the NIT field is selected they should just make the NCAA first four out the one seeds and then seed the rest solely using a metric like NET or RPI or a computer ranking composite. No committee for seeding needed.. selection maybe but seeding no, and seed each “region“ 1 thru 8.
After a 2-0 week, do you anticipate Cincinnati jumping into your field? Next week?
They’re definitely in the mix, but I don’t think they’ll be in our projected field when we update it on Tuesday. Solid performances this week, but they were also games Cincinnati was expected to win.
The expectation we reference on Cincinnati is that they’ll go 7-5 from here before the AAC Tournament, with a 2-4 combined mark in remaining games against Houston, Memphis, UCF, and Tulane. Make that 8-4 or 9-3 and they’ll climb. The Strength of Record just isn’t quite good enough yet, though it helps that their only bad loss was on the road.
Thank you for the response. So you are thinking an 8-4 or 9-3 finish could give them a shot if they do some damage in the conf tourney?
Thanks for being here! That would be my guess. Depends on what the rest of the country does, but a finish like that should put them in a great position.
Majorly disappointed that my Gamecocks didn’t make it. Looks like Princeton loss in the Ivy final eliminated us, not Vandy. Apparently strength of schedule and winning games alone is not enough now, the NET seems to force you to “win pretty”….I just know that while we had a 17-13 record this season, Dave Odom got us into the NIT several years back with a 15-13 record. Which was an NIT that we ended up winning by the way. Oh well.
Currently, 28% of all Division I basketball teams make the postseason (NCAA & NIT). Just over one-fourth. If the NIT were to expand to 64 teams, that would add another 9% to 37% of Division I teams, which seems more reasonable. Is there any chance that the NIT would expand at all? Thanks very much for this site.
Why did neither of the two remaining WAC regular season co-champs make the list for NIT? NM St. made the big dance of course. Co-champ SFA and two lower seeded WAC teams are in the CBI. Seattle, the other WAC co-champ, is MIA.
The committee just thought more highly of the other teams. Grand Canyon was probably the closest to the field, but no dice for them.
Generally, to be in the mix to make the NIT, you want all of your NET/KPI/SOR rankings to be in the top 100. That was only true for NMSU in the WAC this year.