NIT Bracketology
The NIT Bracketology below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.
We’re running our full model again. Here’s how it works.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- Our model also gives NIT probabilities—who will play in it, how likely they are to win.
- We’re calculating daily NIT Leverages—the NIT importance of each individual game.
- If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, our model does that too.
- Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
- A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament.
Last Updated: Sunday, Mar. 16 – FINAL
If there are opt-outs announced more than a few minutes after the NCAA Tournament Selection Show, they may not be accounted for in our final bracketology. The sections below the bracket are listed in our model’s selection order, meaning we expect teams to be called in that order (with the sub-.500 teams on those lists possibly excluded).
Boise State Region
| 1. Boise State* |
| Utah Valley** |
| 4. Georgetown* |
| Saint Joseph’s |
| 3. UCF* |
| Georgia Tech |
| 2. Wake Forest* |
| Arkansas State |
UC Irvine Region
| 1. UC Irvine* |
| USC |
| 4. Middle Tennessee* |
| Chattanooga** |
| 3. Bradley* |
| Loyola Chicago |
| 2. San Francisco* |
| Nevada |
SMU Region
| 1. SMU* |
| Oklahoma State |
| 4. LSU* |
| Santa Clara |
| 3. North Texas* |
| TCU |
| 2. George Mason* |
| Penn State |
Nebraska Region
| 1. Nebraska* |
| Northern Colorado** |
| 4. South Carolina* |
| St. Bonaventure |
| 3. Stanford* |
| Oregon State |
| 2. Dayton |
| Colorado |
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Only Kind of Out
Our NIT Bracketology can only contain 32 teams—the number of teams in the NIT bracket. However, these next teams each have a median team sheet which ranks above our simulations’ median cut line. What this mostly reflects is uncertainty regarding NIT opt-outs. Historically, there have hardly ever been any NIT opt-outs. Maybe one a decade, if that. Last year, they became more common, seemingly mostly due to the transfer portal. So, our model accounts for them, estimating that a few of the teams in this NIT Bracketology may opt out, leaving these next in line to take their place.
- UAB
- Saint Louis
For more on how our NIT Bracketology addresses opt-outs, here’s how our model works. Here are the teams we’re currently holding out of our field:
- Northwestern (said they’re opting out of the Crown, NIT lumped in with that)
- Iowa (fired Fran McCaffery, didn’t name an interim)
- Pitt (announced they’re opting out)
- Kansas State (said they’re opting out of the Crown, NIT lumped in with that)
- Rutgers (announced they’re opting out)
- Minnesota (fired Ben Johnson, didn’t name an interim)
- Florida State (indicated their season is over post-Leonard Hamilton retirement)
- Virginia (dismissed Ron Sanchez, their interim)
- UNLV (fired Kevin Kruger, didn’t name an interim)
First Four Really Out
These are the real First Four Out, per our model.
- Northern Iowa
- Washington
- Notre Dame
- Cal State-Northridge
Next Four Really Out
These are the real Next Four Out, per our model.
- Washington State
- Samford
- Providence
- Furman
A Few More Options
In the event there’s a larger opt-out slew than anticipated or the committee doesn’t invite sub-.500 at-large teams, these teams could conceivably hear their number called:
- George Washington
- Belmont
- Florida Atlantic
- Jacksonville State
- North Alabama
- DePaul
- College of Charleston
- Cornell
NIT Bracketology and the College Basketball Crown
The College Basketball Crown is a new postseason tournament this year, with two guaranteed entrants from each of the Big East, Big Ten, and Big 12. Right now, these are the teams our model expects to receive Crown automatic bids, plus those who have indicated they’ll play in the Crown:
- Indiana
- Ohio State
- West Virginia
- Cincinnati
- Villanova
- Butler
- Utah
- Arizona State
The Crown has been billed as an NIT competitor, and it claims it will have 16 teams. However. It starts 15 full days after Selection Sunday, it starts seven days after the transfer portal opens, and it’s being played in Las Vegas, where attempts at filling arenas have mostly been unsuccessful (see: Pac-12 Tournament, 2023 NIT Final Four, most MTE’s). We don’t expect many teams to choose the Crown over the NIT, but it is a possible source of opt-outs beyond these six teams, something which is reflected in this NIT Bracketology. For more on that, look at the “Only Kind of Out” section above.
NIT Bracketology and Bid Thieves
Sometimes, our NIT Bracketology includes a team who’s also included in our NCAA Tournament Bracketology. What’s happening here is that our model is accounting for the likelihood of Bid Thieves. Our model doesn’t start the NIT Bracketology process by looking at the first team out of the NCAA Tournament. It starts by looking at the likeliest cut line between the NCAA Tournament and the NIT.
NIT Exempt Bids
Exempt bids are determined by conference. On Selection Sunday, the NIT committee will look at kenpom’s twelve top-rated conferences and then, conference by conference, award an exempt bid to the top-rated team who didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. To determine who the top-rated team is, the NIT committee will consult an average of kenpom, BPI, Torvik, WAB, BPI SOR, KPI, and NET—the seven formulas on the NCAA Team Sheets. The ACC and SEC will get two extra exempt bids in what’s believed to be a reward for their refusal to align with Fox Sports and commit two teams to the College Basketball Crown.
This setup sometimes creates a complicated situation for NIT Bracketology where one team is favored to win a conference tournament but that team is also likeliest to receive the conference’s exempt bid. What our NIT Bracketology does in these situations is, conference by conference, look at the likeliest number of teams to wind up in the NIT, and to then fill those slots in with the team or teams likeliest to wind up in the NIT.
NIT Automatic Bids
Automatic bids are awarded to any regular season conference champion who 1) is eligible for NCAA-sponsored postseason play, 2) didn’t win their conference tournament, 3) has an average ranking of 125 or better across those seven systems we listed above, and 4) didn’t already receive an exempt bid. We include these in our NIT Bracketology if they’re 50% likely or likelier, or if the “Only Kind of Out” section is empty. Sometimes, these wind up tied in with exempt bids, but all you should know there is that exempt bids supersede automatic bids, because exempt bids come with seeding and a home game.
NIT Bracketology Update Schedule
This is our final NIT Bracketology of the season. Thanks to all who’ve followed along. If you’re seeing this before the NIT tips off, go check our homepage for the NIT Bracket Challenge. We think it’s fun, and if you’ve read this far, we think you might think it’s fun too.
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where the f*ck is Green Bay .
CBI Tourney where they belong.
They should be in the CBI. I watched them in person last night at RMU. They are a one man team with Reynolds. I was very underwhelmed. This is not a top 100 team in anyway.
If UCF can get in to the NIT, especially when many people had them going winless in the B12, than that will be a major accomplishment.
B12 will have 2 host per new NIT rule; so either Ucf or Kansas St needs to be flipped to a top 4 seed
Ignore me I see TCU on there, sorry
You’re all good. We’re wary of our model on TCU. I wouldn’t be expecting them to be in there either haha.
Didn’t the NCAA show their lack of morality again and initiate a NIT selection process change for 2024? No auto bids for regular season conference champions AND top 2 seeds in each region held by so called “Power Six” conferences?
Yet currently Indiana State is the top seed in this Bracketology.
Welcome back! That is not exactly how the new format works. You’re right about there being no more automatic bids for regular season champions (the tournament’s returning to the pre-2000’s approach to those), but regarding the P6 teams: The top 2 non-NCAAT teams (by NET) in each P6 conference get an automatic bid and the chance to host their first-round game. There’s nothing about the top two seeds in each region having to come from the Power 6.
https://www.ncaa.org/news/2023/10/27/media-center-nit-announces-changes-to-tournament-selection-format.aspx
I feel like it would be interesting to have the NIT try out a simplistic seeding model. .. Dirst four out of NCAA are one seeds, then select the next 28 teams highest in some ranking (NET, computers, etc..) that also have at least a .500 record. Then seed strictly by that ranking, with the only adjustments made to prevent rematches. No evaluating resumes, quad wins, etc… just by the presumably unbiased metric Oh, and seed every team in the field to prevent those both unseeded so we pick who is at home scenarios
We’re North Carolina, Texas Tech and Dayton the only teams to turn down the NIT or are there more teams?
Dayton may not have turned down the NIT, for what it’s worth. It remains unclear whether or not they were invited. The only others we know of were UNC and Texas Tech, with Texas Tech understandable given the situation in Lubbock.
Do you see Nevada a possible 1 seed? They do have 3 wins from Quad 1, Top 50 Net ranking and defeated TCU, Washington and Colorado State so far. Thanks, Mike LaRoche, MBA
Very possible! Even if this was our final bracketology of the season, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Nevada as a 1-seed rather than a 2. That’s well within our margin of error.
One thing to watch with Nevada: The NIT committee sometimes emphasizes different things from the NCAA Tournament committee. For example: The NCAAT committee in recent years has appeared to care more about teams picking up at least a couple Quad 1 wins, whereas the NIT committee’s decisions have hewed closer to raw NET. As of right now, Nevada looks like it’ll land with a great team sheet in the NIT committee’s eyes, but they might need to beat a few of the other good MWC teams on the road to improve their standing with the NCAAT committee.
Any chance Utah sneaks in with a couple schools dropping out?
Utah is in March Madness as of now. Almost in every bracketology I’ve seen.
Dayton declined… Will mess you up again.
Where do you see the Colorado Buffs for the NIT this year Feels super close Wonder UNC bowing out can only help my Buffs. Thoughts?
No Wake Forest?
What do you think of nebraska odds
Losing to Minnesota knocked them out, they needed thar win for sure and they didn’t
Will syracuse make nit
OUs chances? Haha I know….
Yes
With North Carolina turning down a bid to the NIT leaves a spot open. Nebraska’s body of work should get them a bid.
Rather see Marshall get a spot. They’ve proven themselves in the past in both bb & fb and ended up 24-8.
This tournament was better when they seeded the regions 1 thru 8. Now if two upsets happen how do they determine home court?
Happened in the quarters to St. Bonaventure last year.
Also, no way the MAC champ this year should not be a top 16 in the NIT but I agree they won’t be… a reflection of the absolute disdain this committee has always had for the MAC. The MAC can play. It’s not the Patriot League, no offense to those teams.
What about grambling state
No real chance for Grambling State. Some great wins, but the overall numbers just aren’t on the same level as the NIT bubble teams.
Why the love for Florida. .500 record and 3-15 against Quad 1 & 2. Colorado resume pretty similar also. A couple of non Power 5 teams would probably be motivated to play in the tourney.
Rather see Marshall get a spot. They’ve proven themselves in the past in both bb & fb and ended up 24-8.
How does Nebraska not get a bid?
The worthless NET rating screws them.
Rather see Marshall get a spot. They’ve proven themselves in the past in both bb & fb and ended up 24-8.
There’s the CBI & The Basketball Classic for other opinions. Forget the NIT!
No TBC this year.
I think UNLV should get a NIT bid
What about Nevada in the NIT, according to media sources, Nevada is in the first four out? If they are NIT bound, what seed would they be?
If Nevada’s in the First Four Out, they’ll get a 1-seed. If they’re not and they still don’t make the NCAA Tournament, they’ll probably still be a high seed. Most likely a 2-seed in that scenario. Would be really surprising if they don’t get a chance at two home games.
UNLV has a chance. They were in our Next Four Out this morning: https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology-rundown-nit-bubble-watch-selection-sunday-2023/
If Nevada is a 1 seed, who does Nevada play in their region?
If it’s like it used to be, first 4 out are always the 1 seeds in the NIT.
It appears Colorado is safely in now? Even potentially hosting a home game? I thought the other day I saw the Buffs as the 2nd to last team in the field.
We wouldn’t call them a lock, but the absence of bid thieves and fewer NIT automatic bids getting claimed than expected has helped. Right on the edge of getting a home game in our model. Might depend on if VCU drops in or not.
Seton a 2 seed in the WI bracket now disappears?
We haven’t had Seton Hall seeded in a long time. They may have been playing against a 2-seed in a recent update?
Seton Hall is our last team in, entering today. If Yale wins, they’ll be in our final projection, if Yale loses, they’ll be out. Either way, they’re about a coin flip to make it from what we know now.
ugh
No Seton Hall in the NIT?
There’s the CBI & The Basketball Classic for other opinions. Forget the NIT!
What about Ohio state? 13th seeded team in the big 10 made all the way to the semi’s
You can’t be under .500 and make the NIT. It’s literally a rule bud.
Technically there is no rule that states that a team has to be .500 or better. However there has NEVER been a team under .500 selected yet. So thus far it has remained an unwritten rule. With parity at an all time high IMO this year’s NIT should be as good as ever!!
Not a rule, bud.
I doubt it, they’re under .500
I Agree!
I think Wake Forest should and will get in. As you’ve said, the last 6-8 spots of NIT selection include some wild cards. The committee usually seems to include “eye-test” teams and Wake is definitely one of them. Regardless of flawed NET rankings, (which for the second straight year undervalues the ACC) they are a better team than Villanova, Colorado Washington State, and others, even without Damari Monsanto.
I agree .. Wake Forest should be in for sure .. Anyone that has watched any basketball this year would agree !!!
Absolutely. Wake only returned two rotation players from last season. They lost by two against Loyola Marymount (who won at Gonzaga and beat Saint Mary’s at home) and two against LSU (KJ Williams hit seven 3’s), both on a neutral court. They lost by 20 at Rutgers and by 20 at Clemson in December. After that, Wake lost one game by double digits the rest of the season (at NC State when Monsanto tore his patellar tendon during the final possession of the first half).
This team beat Duke by 11 at home and lost by two at Cameron. Won at Wisconsin. Lost by nine at UNC and beat them at home, leading by as many as 26. UNC’s second-largest deficit at any point this season was by 15 at Indiana. Wake lost by two at Pitt, two vs. NC State, and two in the ACC Tournament against Miami. Their three bad losses, LSU, LMU, and BC, were also by two points each.
If the NIT committee has knowledgeable basketball people selecting the field, Wake will make it. Eric and I both know a good team when we see it. NET rankings are an improvement from RPI, but it is not the answer.
Wake has a shot, a lot depends on how bad the ACC gets screwed by the NCAA Tournament Committee, UNC is probably out and Clemson is out as well, Pitt is BARELY in, probably first four and NC State is no lock for certain. The NIT won’t have 5 ACC teams, three or four at most, UNC, Clemson, VA Tech and maybe Wake as long as Pitt and NC State make the NCAA Tournament.
Has Washington States position gotten any better?
Not enough people stay up to watch the PAC 12 and that is why Wash. State should be in this field.
I’m from Michigan Tom and I agree with you 100%. It’s a shame that the “Conference of Champions” is consistently underrated… Like the other POWER Conferences… the PAC12 beats each other up… it truly is SOLID from top to bottom… albeit perhaps one team… sorry Cal!!!
Agree 100%. To insinuate that ucla, Arizona, $$$$$c, and inexplicably Oregon are the only good teams in the Pac is a farse. Wazzu, asu, & the mountain schools are all good teams as well. WSU beat Arizona on the road, beat $$$$c, lost to ucla by 1, and played Baylor tough. Wake is a good team. And deserves as much consideration too. (Although touting a 2-pt loss to LMU is puzzling with the other quality wins they have.)
After losing three straight games to end their season when either (1) winning at least one of the two overtime road losses to Illinois and Indiana and a win in the Big Ten Tournament or (2) beating Rutgers in the Big Ten Tournament might’ve put them in a First Four game in Dayton, Michigan looks like it won’t get better than a two seed in the NIT.
Could Michigan drop to a three seed in the NIT? They’ve got the worst record in Quad 1 games (3-12) of all Big Ten teams other than Minnesota.
If Kent State loses a close game to Toledo tonight, do they get an NIT bid?
Pitt as a 4 seed in someone else’s region is absurd, especially considering that they beat North Carolina twice. Pitt is on the first four out cutline and will probably be the no. 1 overall seed in the NIT. They’ll still get YSU in round 1.
Yeah, our model really disagrees with consensus on Pitt. Beating UNC twice doesn’t mean all that much – it’s about the whole body of work, not just two games – but they do seem to be a lot closer to the bubble than our model has them.
One note with this: The NIT and NCAA Tournament committees have shown some different preferences over the years, and with little recent NIT history, we heavily weight last year’s bracket in our model. That hurts Pitt because last year’s committee cared more about the quality of the team than the quality of their accomplishments. Model will be wrong on some things, and again really seems to be low on Pitt, but that’s where it’s coming from.
They’d be on the bubble, but our guess at the moment is yes. Would have to see what the model thinks in the morning.