The Barking Crow

NIT Bracketology

NOTE: THIS IS NOT YET UPDATED FOR THE 2025–26 COLLEGE BASKETBALL SEASON. UPDATE COMING SOON. MORE INFO HERE.

The NIT Bracketology below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.

We’re running our full model again. Here’s how it works.

If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.

  • Our model also gives NIT probabilities—who will play in it, how likely they are to win.
  • We’re calculating daily NIT Leverages—the NIT importance of each individual game.
  • If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, our model does that too.
  • Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
  • A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament.


Last Updated: Sunday, Mar. 16 – FINAL

If there are opt-outs announced more than a few minutes after the NCAA Tournament Selection Show, they may not be accounted for in our final bracketology. The sections below the bracket are listed in our model’s selection order, meaning we expect teams to be called in that order (with the sub-.500 teams on those lists possibly excluded).

Boise State Region

1. Boise State*
Utah Valley**
4. Georgetown*
Saint Joseph’s
3. UCF*
Georgia Tech
2. Wake Forest*
Arkansas State


UC Irvine Region

1. UC Irvine*
USC
4. Middle Tennessee*
Chattanooga**
3. Bradley*
Loyola Chicago
2. San Francisco*
Nevada


SMU Region

1. SMU*
Oklahoma State
4. LSU*
Santa Clara
3. North Texas*
TCU
2. George Mason*
Penn State


Nebraska Region

1. Nebraska*
Northern Colorado**
4. South Carolina*
St. Bonaventure
3. Stanford*
Oregon State
2. Dayton
Colorado

**


Only Kind of Out

Our NIT Bracketology can only contain 32 teams—the number of teams in the NIT bracket. However, these next teams each have a median team sheet which ranks above our simulations’ median cut line. What this mostly reflects is uncertainty regarding NIT opt-outs. Historically, there have hardly ever been any NIT opt-outs. Maybe one a decade, if that. Last year, they became more common, seemingly mostly due to the transfer portal. So, our model accounts for them, estimating that a few of the teams in this NIT Bracketology may opt out, leaving these next in line to take their place.

  • UAB
  • Saint Louis

For more on how our NIT Bracketology addresses opt-outs, here’s how our model works. Here are the teams we’re currently holding out of our field:

  • Northwestern (said they’re opting out of the Crown, NIT lumped in with that)
  • Iowa (fired Fran McCaffery, didn’t name an interim)
  • Pitt (announced they’re opting out)
  • Kansas State (said they’re opting out of the Crown, NIT lumped in with that)
  • Rutgers (announced they’re opting out)
  • Minnesota (fired Ben Johnson, didn’t name an interim)
  • Florida State (indicated their season is over post-Leonard Hamilton retirement)
  • Virginia (dismissed Ron Sanchez, their interim)
  • UNLV (fired Kevin Kruger, didn’t name an interim)

First Four Really Out

These are the real First Four Out, per our model.

  • Northern Iowa
  • Washington
  • Notre Dame
  • Cal State-Northridge

Next Four Really Out

These are the real Next Four Out, per our model.

  • Washington State
  • Samford
  • Providence
  • Furman

A Few More Options

In the event there’s a larger opt-out slew than anticipated or the committee doesn’t invite sub-.500 at-large teams, these teams could conceivably hear their number called:

  • George Washington
  • Belmont
  • Florida Atlantic
  • Jacksonville State
  • North Alabama
  • DePaul
  • College of Charleston
  • Cornell

NIT Bracketology and the College Basketball Crown

The College Basketball Crown is a new postseason tournament this year, with two guaranteed entrants from each of the Big East, Big Ten, and Big 12. Right now, these are the teams our model expects to receive Crown automatic bids, plus those who have indicated they’ll play in the Crown:

  • Indiana
  • Ohio State
  • West Virginia
  • Cincinnati
  • Villanova
  • Butler
  • Utah
  • Arizona State

The Crown has been billed as an NIT competitor, and it claims it will have 16 teams. However. It starts 15 full days after Selection Sunday, it starts seven days after the transfer portal opens, and it’s being played in Las Vegas, where attempts at filling arenas have mostly been unsuccessful (see: Pac-12 Tournament, 2023 NIT Final Four, most MTE’s). We don’t expect many teams to choose the Crown over the NIT, but it is a possible source of opt-outs beyond these six teams, something which is reflected in this NIT Bracketology. For more on that, look at the “Only Kind of Out” section above.

NIT Bracketology and Bid Thieves

Sometimes, our NIT Bracketology includes a team who’s also included in our NCAA Tournament Bracketology. What’s happening here is that our model is accounting for the likelihood of Bid Thieves. Our model doesn’t start the NIT Bracketology process by looking at the first team out of the NCAA Tournament. It starts by looking at the likeliest cut line between the NCAA Tournament and the NIT.

NIT Exempt Bids

Exempt bids are determined by conference. On Selection Sunday, the NIT committee will look at kenpom’s twelve top-rated conferences and then, conference by conference, award an exempt bid to the top-rated team who didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. To determine who the top-rated team is, the NIT committee will consult an average of kenpom, BPI, Torvik, WAB, BPI SOR, KPI, and NET—the seven formulas on the NCAA Team Sheets. The ACC and SEC will get two extra exempt bids in what’s believed to be a reward for their refusal to align with Fox Sports and commit two teams to the College Basketball Crown.

This setup sometimes creates a complicated situation for NIT Bracketology where one team is favored to win a conference tournament but that team is also likeliest to receive the conference’s exempt bid. What our NIT Bracketology does in these situations is, conference by conference, look at the likeliest number of teams to wind up in the NIT, and to then fill those slots in with the team or teams likeliest to wind up in the NIT.

NIT Automatic Bids

Automatic bids are awarded to any regular season conference champion who 1) is eligible for NCAA-sponsored postseason play, 2) didn’t win their conference tournament, 3) has an average ranking of 125 or better across those seven systems we listed above, and 4) didn’t already receive an exempt bid. We include these in our NIT Bracketology if they’re 50% likely or likelier, or if the “Only Kind of Out” section is empty. Sometimes, these wind up tied in with exempt bids, but all you should know there is that exempt bids supersede automatic bids, because exempt bids come with seeding and a home game.

NIT Bracketology Update Schedule

This is our final NIT Bracketology of the season. Thanks to all who’ve followed along. If you’re seeing this before the NIT tips off, go check our homepage for the NIT Bracket Challenge. We think it’s fun, and if you’ve read this far, we think you might think it’s fun too.

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872 thoughts on “NIT Bracketology”

  1. It won’t happen but Oklahoma, even though they’re under .500, should be in. Why? They’re one of the best 32 teams not in the NCAA field. For some that’s a weird take but the B12 was that hard. Put OU in any other conference, they aren’t under .500 and are likely an NCAA tourney team. But oh well, there’s no way the NIT adds them.

    Reply

    2. Also don’t forget Florida who’s record is 16-16 with less quad 1 wins and less quad 2 wins lost to Oklahoma this season if view Oklahoma should get in over them since they beat them in a neutral site game

      Reply

    3. As a suffering OU season tix holder I feel your pain. terrible end of game management in close games
      and questionable coaching. Maybe next year?

      Reply

  3. Joe don’t know Jack! In an earlier post you had the NIT final four still playing in Madison Square Garden. You didn’t even know that it’s been moved to Las Vegas. So how can we take your picks seriously? We can’t.

    Note from The Barking Crow: This is patently false, but Al has gotten under our skin, and we are therefore asking Al to cease and desist telling lies about us on The Internet. If Al does not stop, his comments will be marked as spam going forward. Our bracketology might miss a few teams (it probably will miss a few teams, this is not a precise exercise). But we know where the NIT Final Four is, and we have never said otherwise.

    https://thebarkingcrow.com/breaking-the-2023-and-2024-nit-final-fours-will-be-in-las-vegas-and-hinkle-fieldhouse/

    Reply

    1. If by earlier post, you mean a post in or before March of 2022, then yes?

      We’re the leading NIT blog on the internet, buddy, and we might get teams wrong in our bracketology when all’s said and done (as we make very clear in all our ‘how our bracketology works’ posts, and as all bracketologists do), but dammit, we know the NIT. You’re making shit up. We covered the Las Vegas move before it was even announced.

      Reply

    1. In this morning’s projection, New Mexico would host their first round game but then would only host further games if better-seeded teams were to lose. If they’re a 3-seed playing a 2-seed, that’d be on the road, but if they’re playing an unseeded team, that’d be at home. Hope that helps!

      Reply

  5. Colorado lost to UCLA in close games three times, lost to Arizona in a close game, beat Tennessee in Nashville and Texas A&M on a neutral court. Ranked 58th in Kenpom. Why aren’t they ranked higher in this projection?

    Reply

    1. Probably because we lost to Washington twice, Cal, Grambling, UMASS etc. Just happy to be in the NIT at this point.

      Reply

      1. Hi, Watne. Our bracketology is fully run by formulas. If you want to read about it, there’s a link at the top of the page. But unless numbers have an East Coast bias, bias isn’t the problem here. We could be right or wrong about the Buffs, but we’re just running numbers.

        Reply

        1. Numbers do have an east coast bias. The formulas are generated by people. Win a couple “big” non conf games and the formulas elevate the conference a ton. It will be really interesting to see what these big 10 and 12 teams with records just over .500 do in postseason tourneys.

          Reply

          1. You’re right. You cracked the code. The East Coast world, full of famous East Coasters like Utah resident Ken Pomeroy, has designed systems that reward teams for beating good opponents. This was done to help famous East Coast conferences like the Big Ten and Big 12, all at the expense of teams out west like Colorado, who definitely didn’t finish exactly one game over .500 themselves.

            Reply

          2. Do you have Nevada as a top three 3 seed in the NIT, they did sweep New Mexico, a win over San Diego State and Boise.

            Reply

    2. Virginia Tech is ahead of Wake in every single metric on the team sheet aside from Q2 losses, Q3 wins, and Q4 wins. They’re the better team and they’ve done more, even if they finished two games behind them playing a more difficult conference schedule.

      Reply

      1. You forgot the category where they played and Wake beat them heads up. Just saying, no way VT is better than Wake.

        Identical records overall. Wake has better conference record and win Head to head matchup. You have no argument for VT here.

        Reply

        1. Ah, yes. The game in Winston-Salem where Cattoor was out and Wake still only won by two.

          So we’re going with head-to-head result and conference record (against an easier conference schedule) as an argument; and NET, KenPom, SOR, BPI, KPI, Sagarin, Q1 record, and Q1/Q2 record as not an argument? Silly us for forgetting the NCAA would just give the committee a sheet of paper that says “Wake 77 VT 75.”

          Reply

          1. So you’re saying they need to use metrics only? We are past the point of which team looks better on paper. Remember how UNC was a lock for the final four again this year? I’m also trying to figure out the easier schedule comment. They played common opponents in conference and VT literally won 0 road games out of conference ( they did beat ND and Louisville in conference #’s 14 and 15 in final standings) WF beats Wisconsin on the road and had 3 road conference wins (including BC which VT lost 2 twice) Oh yeah, they aslo lost at WF in case we forgot about that.

            Reply

    1. Would be shocking if Arkansas was left out of the NCAAT. St. John’s has a slim NIT chance, but they need a lot of help. Need teams in line for automatic bids to win their conference tournaments, need the Lower Bubble teams still playing to lose.

      Reply

  8. Nebraska’s won at Creighton, Rutgers, and swept Iowa. They’ve beat Maryland, Wisconsin at home and took Purdue to overtime. They would have beat Purdue if not for a horrible last second official’s foul. They can compete with anyone who gets into the NIT.

    Reply

    1. There’s a chance, but their nonconference schedule really didn’t give them a chance to grab quality wins. And then when they have lost, it’s been ugly. If the committee values the same things it did last year, no chance, but if the committee’s looking more for a strong body of work, Fordham’s in the picture.

      Reply

    1. We think so, but there are some reputable bracketologies out there that still have them missing the NCAAT. It’s not 100%.

      Reply

  12. With Washington states loss in the pac12 tournament today, what are their odds to get an at large nit bid?
    I do realize their early season losses really hurt their resume, but you do have to agree early and mid season injuries caused them to create new identities, which morphed into the excitement they bring to any arena.
    They were even down to recruiting a football team lineman due to injury shortages in the center position, where junior Dishon Jackson is still out.

    Reply

    1. They’re on the right side of 50%, but we wouldn’t say they’re a lock. We’ll know more in the morning when their NET ranking and all that comes in. Definitely a good story up there!

      Reply

  13. With Washington states loss in the pac12 tournament today, what are their odds to get an at large nit bid?
    I do realize their early season losses really hurt their resume, but you do have to agree early and mid season injuries caused them to create new identities, which morphed into the excitement they bring to any arena.
    They were even down to recruiting a football team lineman due to injury shortages in the center position, where junior Dishon Jackson is still out.

    Reply

    1. I would think so. Tonight’s would be a good enough win to get them back close to the bubble, I’d think, and it’s the NCAAT committee’s First Four Out who get 1-seeds in the NIT.

      Reply

  15. If UCF beats Memphis, they might play their way in. Keep in mind that the Knights beat Memphis once already and Memphis needed a buzzer beater to eek out a win against them in the re-match. Considering that the Knights lost four games at the buzzer this year (although they have two awful losses to South Florida) and sneaking into the NIT would be a nice way to end the season before going into the Big 12.

    Reply

    1. It wouldn’t be the wildest thing in the world. They’ve been between our 9th and 12th team out for a little while, wouldn’t imagine today hurt that. So then you’re looking for a couple bad losses, a couple unfilled automatic bids, and a favorable glance by the committee. Lot has to go right, but maybe 5%? 10% chance?

      Reply

  18. How close is Wake Forest? Was hoping they would catch fire in the ACC tournament and solidify an NIT spot/sneak into the NCAAs. I’m hoping for more Tyree Appleby.

    Reply

    1. They’re close enough that it wouldn’t be a shock if their name got called, but they need a lot of help. Fifth team out in our model this morning. Wouldn’t expect them to drop further from the field (unless UNLV or SJSU wins by a ton), and that’s within our realistic margin for error, but it’s less than 50/50 right now.

      Reply

    2. Wake Forest should be in for sure !! .. They deserve it .. They can play with anyone .. They will get in !!

      Reply

  19. How far away is UC from a #4 seed and how far away is Dayton from being in the field? Would love to see an UC-Dayton 1st round matchup

    Reply

    1. Ooh that’d be a good one.

      Dayton would be in our First Four Out if they weren’t projected to win the A-10 Tournament, so the simplest path for them is two big wins and then a loss to VCU. Cincinnati’s about a seed line away, so within range of a 4-seed but that’s with the expectation already baked in that they beat Temple. Might just need a big win and/or a benevolent look from the committee.

      Reply

  20. Now that Wisconsin’s NCAA bubble has officially burst and sit at 17-14, what seed do you now see them in the NIT?

    Reply

      1. Of course Wisconsin will make the NIT, probably as a 1-3 seed depends on how the rest of championship week goes

        Reply

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