The bracket below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.
We aren’t currently running our full model. That will come soon, but in the meantime, here’s how this works.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, we have that too.
- Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
- A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament. We currently estimate five to be the likeliest number of automatic bids, and we’ve given these five to the conference favorites we estimate to be likeliest to receive them.
Last Updated: Preseason
Mississippi Region
| 1. Mississippi* |
| Virginia |
| 4. Northern Iowa* |
| Nebraska |
| 3. Louisville* |
| Ohio** |
| 2. Missouri* |
| New Mexico |
LSU Region
| 1. LSU* |
| College of Charleston** |
| 4. Louisiana Tech* |
| SMU |
| 3. UAB* |
| Georgia |
| 2. Northwestern* |
| Notre Dame |
Miami (FL) Region
| 1. Miami (FL)* |
| Wofford** |
| 4. San Francisco* |
| Nevada |
| 3. Seton Hall* |
| Syracuse |
| 2. Boise State* |
| Penn State |
VCU Region
| 1. VCU* |
| Appalachian State** |
| 4. Seattle* |
| Minnesota |
| 3. Arizona State* |
| South Carolina |
| 2. NC State* |
| High Point** |
Note: With the College Basketball Crown expected to take two teams each from the Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten, we have removed TCU, USC, Rutgers, Providence, UCF, and Butler from our projected field. In our projection, they would each be higher in line for an exempt bid than the recipient from their respective league.
It won’t happen but Oklahoma, even though they’re under .500, should be in. Why? They’re one of the best 32 teams not in the NCAA field. For some that’s a weird take but the B12 was that hard. Put OU in any other conference, they aren’t under .500 and are likely an NCAA tourney team. But oh well, there’s no way the NIT adds them.
The way Ohio State is playing they should be in the NIT before Oklahoma.
Also don’t forget Florida who’s record is 16-16 with less quad 1 wins and less quad 2 wins lost to Oklahoma this season if view Oklahoma should get in over them since they beat them in a neutral site game
As a suffering OU season tix holder I feel your pain. terrible end of game management in close games
and questionable coaching. Maybe next year?
What’s the latest on Marshall?
Not looking good, friend. I’m sorry. Keep an eye on our daily NIT Bracketology Rundown for updates, but they’re gonna need a good break come Sunday.
https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology-rundown-march-10th/
Joe don’t know Jack! In an earlier post you had the NIT final four still playing in Madison Square Garden. You didn’t even know that it’s been moved to Las Vegas. So how can we take your picks seriously? We can’t.
Note from The Barking Crow: This is patently false, but Al has gotten under our skin, and we are therefore asking Al to cease and desist telling lies about us on The Internet. If Al does not stop, his comments will be marked as spam going forward. Our bracketology might miss a few teams (it probably will miss a few teams, this is not a precise exercise). But we know where the NIT Final Four is, and we have never said otherwise.
https://thebarkingcrow.com/breaking-the-2023-and-2024-nit-final-fours-will-be-in-las-vegas-and-hinkle-fieldhouse/
If by earlier post, you mean a post in or before March of 2022, then yes?
We’re the leading NIT blog on the internet, buddy, and we might get teams wrong in our bracketology when all’s said and done (as we make very clear in all our ‘how our bracketology works’ posts, and as all bracketologists do), but dammit, we know the NIT. You’re making shit up. We covered the Las Vegas move before it was even announced.
Does that mean New Mexico will host 2 games at the Pit ?
In this morning’s projection, New Mexico would host their first round game but then would only host further games if better-seeded teams were to lose. If they’re a 3-seed playing a 2-seed, that’d be on the road, but if they’re playing an unseeded team, that’d be at home. Hope that helps!
Colorado lost to UCLA in close games three times, lost to Arizona in a close game, beat Tennessee in Nashville and Texas A&M on a neutral court. Ranked 58th in Kenpom. Why aren’t they ranked higher in this projection?
Probably because we lost to Washington twice, Cal, Grambling, UMASS etc. Just happy to be in the NIT at this point.
Because of East Coast bias!
Hi, Watne. Our bracketology is fully run by formulas. If you want to read about it, there’s a link at the top of the page. But unless numbers have an East Coast bias, bias isn’t the problem here. We could be right or wrong about the Buffs, but we’re just running numbers.
Numbers do have an east coast bias. The formulas are generated by people. Win a couple “big” non conf games and the formulas elevate the conference a ton. It will be really interesting to see what these big 10 and 12 teams with records just over .500 do in postseason tourneys.
You’re right. You cracked the code. The East Coast world, full of famous East Coasters like Utah resident Ken Pomeroy, has designed systems that reward teams for beating good opponents. This was done to help famous East Coast conferences like the Big Ten and Big 12, all at the expense of teams out west like Colorado, who definitely didn’t finish exactly one game over .500 themselves.
Do you have Nevada as a top three 3 seed in the NIT, they did sweep New Mexico, a win over San Diego State and Boise.
Wake finished ahead of VT no way VT makes it ahead of them.
You’re exactly right !!!
Virginia Tech is ahead of Wake in every single metric on the team sheet aside from Q2 losses, Q3 wins, and Q4 wins. They’re the better team and they’ve done more, even if they finished two games behind them playing a more difficult conference schedule.
You forgot the category where they played and Wake beat them heads up. Just saying, no way VT is better than Wake.
Identical records overall. Wake has better conference record and win Head to head matchup. You have no argument for VT here.
Ah, yes. The game in Winston-Salem where Cattoor was out and Wake still only won by two.
So we’re going with head-to-head result and conference record (against an easier conference schedule) as an argument; and NET, KenPom, SOR, BPI, KPI, Sagarin, Q1 record, and Q1/Q2 record as not an argument? Silly us for forgetting the NCAA would just give the committee a sheet of paper that says “Wake 77 VT 75.”
So you’re saying they need to use metrics only? We are past the point of which team looks better on paper. Remember how UNC was a lock for the final four again this year? I’m also trying to figure out the easier schedule comment. They played common opponents in conference and VT literally won 0 road games out of conference ( they did beat ND and Louisville in conference #’s 14 and 15 in final standings) WF beats Wisconsin on the road and had 3 road conference wins (including BC which VT lost 2 twice) Oh yeah, they aslo lost at WF in case we forgot about that.
What are the NIT possibilities of Arkansas and St. John’s?
Would be shocking if Arkansas was left out of the NCAAT. St. John’s has a slim NIT chance, but they need a lot of help. Need teams in line for automatic bids to win their conference tournaments, need the Lower Bubble teams still playing to lose.
Nebraska’s won at Creighton, Rutgers, and swept Iowa. They’ve beat Maryland, Wisconsin at home and took Purdue to overtime. They would have beat Purdue if not for a horrible last second official’s foul. They can compete with anyone who gets into the NIT.
And beat Penn State.
A lot of these teams still have solid chances to make tourney
Where is San Jose st?
Wisconsin stinks 14 losses?
A 1 seed please!
They were our second team out entering today’s games.
https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology-rundown-march-10th/
If UCF beats Memphis tonight, they’ve worked their way back in as a bubble team.
Is there really no chance a 25-win A10 Fordham makes it?
There’s a chance, but their nonconference schedule really didn’t give them a chance to grab quality wins. And then when they have lost, it’s been ugly. If the committee values the same things it did last year, no chance, but if the committee’s looking more for a strong body of work, Fordham’s in the picture.
Has rutgers likely escaped the clutches of the NIT?
We think so, but there are some reputable bracketologies out there that still have them missing the NCAAT. It’s not 100%.
With Washington states loss in the pac12 tournament today, what are their odds to get an at large nit bid?
I do realize their early season losses really hurt their resume, but you do have to agree early and mid season injuries caused them to create new identities, which morphed into the excitement they bring to any arena.
They were even down to recruiting a football team lineman due to injury shortages in the center position, where junior Dishon Jackson is still out.
They’re on the right side of 50%, but we wouldn’t say they’re a lock. We’ll know more in the morning when their NET ranking and all that comes in. Definitely a good story up there!
With Washington states loss in the pac12 tournament today, what are their odds to get an at large nit bid?
I do realize their early season losses really hurt their resume, but you do have to agree early and mid season injuries caused them to create new identities, which morphed into the excitement they bring to any arena.
They were even down to recruiting a football team lineman due to injury shortages in the center position, where junior Dishon Jackson is still out.
Is there any way NewMexico can be a #1 seed?
I would think so. Tonight’s would be a good enough win to get them back close to the bubble, I’d think, and it’s the NCAAT committee’s First Four Out who get 1-seeds in the NIT.
If UCF beats Memphis, they might play their way in. Keep in mind that the Knights beat Memphis once already and Memphis needed a buzzer beater to eek out a win against them in the re-match. Considering that the Knights lost four games at the buzzer this year (although they have two awful losses to South Florida) and sneaking into the NIT would be a nice way to end the season before going into the Big 12.
Does St John’s have any real chance to get in with the loss today?
It wouldn’t be the wildest thing in the world. They’ve been between our 9th and 12th team out for a little while, wouldn’t imagine today hurt that. So then you’re looking for a couple bad losses, a couple unfilled automatic bids, and a favorable glance by the committee. Lot has to go right, but maybe 5%? 10% chance?
I think Nebraska ought to get in they beat 4:quad teams this year they always get left out they could probably beat most the teams in there
How close is Wake Forest? Was hoping they would catch fire in the ACC tournament and solidify an NIT spot/sneak into the NCAAs. I’m hoping for more Tyree Appleby.
They’re close enough that it wouldn’t be a shock if their name got called, but they need a lot of help. Fifth team out in our model this morning. Wouldn’t expect them to drop further from the field (unless UNLV or SJSU wins by a ton), and that’s within our realistic margin for error, but it’s less than 50/50 right now.
Wake Forest should be in for sure !! .. They deserve it .. They can play with anyone .. They will get in !!
How far away is UC from a #4 seed and how far away is Dayton from being in the field? Would love to see an UC-Dayton 1st round matchup
Ooh that’d be a good one.
Dayton would be in our First Four Out if they weren’t projected to win the A-10 Tournament, so the simplest path for them is two big wins and then a loss to VCU. Cincinnati’s about a seed line away, so within range of a 4-seed but that’s with the expectation already baked in that they beat Temple. Might just need a big win and/or a benevolent look from the committee.
Now that Wisconsin’s NCAA bubble has officially burst and sit at 17-14, what seed do you now see them in the NIT?
I don’t think they’ll make it.
Of course Wisconsin will make the NIT, probably as a 1-3 seed depends on how the rest of championship week goes