Toledo has tipped, and we’re back underway in the world of the NIT. Here’s where our latest NIT Bracketology has things after yesterday’s glory:
In the Bid Thief Seat: Providence
First: We must remind you that we still expect some thievery in the NCA* *********t, which we of course support. Anything to throw those guys off. At the moment, we have Providence in that spot in the projection where the thief would push them in. I know what the Commandments say, but at the moment? The Friars want somebody to steal.
Moving In: Wisconsin, Santa Clara, Cincinnati
Wisconsin drops in with the loss to Ohio State, but I’m told they’re not safe yet. Thankfully, our model seems to be higher on the Badgers than the market is, but I remain nervous. They beat Shaka Smart on the road! Nobody else did that. And, you know, they did other things too. Beat Andy Enfield, for example. I enjoyed that.
Santa Clara and Cincinnati were idle, but they moved in on the back of the Seton Hall collapse and the Virginia Tech no-show. Sometimes it pays to sit on your ass and watch basketball.
Moving Out: Rutgers, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall
Rutgers gets bumped out by the Wisconsin movement, having been on the Bid Thief Seat but no longer occupying that place of honor. Rutgers, unfortunately, your fate is not in your hands. You can help your cause, but others will have their say.
What a week it’s been for Seton Hall. Obliterated Providence, had DePaul beat, did not beat DePaul. Right now, it’s not looking like there’ll be more basketball for the Pirates, but as we’ll get to in a moment, they remain close.
We said Virginia Tech probably only needed to not get blown out, and what did Virginia Tech do? They got blown out. It’s like these teams are trying to not play in the NIT. The Hokies, like Seton Hall, remain close. But that was ugly.
First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, UCF, Nebraska
Ok.
The deal with these four—especially the first two—is that we won’t be surprised if they get invited, even if there are a lot of automatic bids (as we think there will be) and Texas Tech makes it (weird case with the Mark Adams situation, but we still project them in because we have no good way to tell our computer about the Mark Adams situation). We aren’t running the most precise operation here. We don’t know how you would do that given how the NIT operates. So, it’s worse for the Hokies and Pirates and Knights and Huskers that they aren’t in our projected field, but it doesn’t mean they’re done. Just means they’re sweating. Just as Cincinnati and Santa Clara and Colorado should be. Hoping on help, hoping on fewer automatic bids than expected, hoping on generous glances from Tim Duncan and the rest of the NIT Selection Committee.
Nebraska didn’t move much with their loss to Minnesota, still sitting on the fringe of the picture, which is a big indictment of how badly Nebraska’s season had already gone. UCF was idle.
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, UNLV, Marshall, San Jose State
With Utah seeming to leave the building, these four all moved up a slot. All but Marshall are still playing, and Wake and UNLV each won close ones yesterday.
Still Chasing Automatic Bids: Yale, Vermont, Iona
We have twelve teams taking automatic bids in our bracket, since twelve still looks like the likeliest number (narrowly edging eleven, in a big victory for composites over primes). The other possibilities—in addition to FAU, who’s functioning more like an Upper Bubble team right now—are these three. We’ve listed them from NIT-likeliest to NIT-unlikeliest.
Still Chasing the Other Automatic Bids: Sam Houston State, Kent State, Kind of Dayton
Sam Houston State would be a projected NIT team if they weren’t too likely to win their conference tournament. We do have Utah Valley in there as an automatic bid, though, so what NIT bubbler fans really want to avoid is a two-bid WAC.
Similarly, Kent State would be projected into the NIT were they not too likely to win the MAC Tournament, and since we have Toledo in as an automatic bid, NIT bubbler fans want to dodge a two-bid MAC. One caveat? If Kent State loses today, they could fall out. They aren’t as comfortably in the field as Sam Houston State is (the Bearkats could fall out too, but it’d take more).
Dayton would be in our First Four Out if they weren’t our projected A-10 Tournament champion—and again, we do have VCU in as an automatic bid—but to a greater extent than in the WAC and MAC, a zero-bid Atlantic 10 is on the table.
Sub-.500: Oklahoma, Ohio State
If the Invisible .500 Rule goes away, we would expect Oklahoma to make the field, and possibly Ohio State.
We do not expect the Invisible .500 Rule to go away.
