Wow! WOW!!! Wow.
Auburn, you guys.
Here’s the deal with Auburn: They are in a big blind spot for our model, which was only really built on data from 2018 through 2022 (and mostly from 2019 through 2022, because we didn’t want to let the RPI win). They might be a lock to miss the NIT already. They might need to lose out to make the NIT. They might just need to go 1–2 from here to be with us. But hey, this is talk for NIT Bubble Watch. You’re here for all those little gaps surrounding today’s updated NIT Bracketology. Let’s meet the moment.
Moving In: Pitt, Auburn, Cincinnati, Morehead State*, Howard*, Alcorn State*
Also joining us at the top is Pitt, whose loss to Notre Dame on Wednesday set up a hilarious ACC scenario (about which we’ve talked ad nauseum, but in case your eyes glaze over…) in which Pitt wins narrowly over Miami, winning the ACC, loses badly to Boston College, losing the ACC Tournament, and ends up holding the ACC’s NIT automatic bid for what I’d imagine is the first time in recorded history (there’s no proof aliens didn’t come here and play NITs before humanity evolved to its current state).
On the bottom, Cincinnati rises in, and not for any particular reason. They and Colorado are just really, really close.
Howard won the MEAC, so they’re in. Alcorn State is the favorite again in the SWAC, so they’re in. Morehead State saw nothing change but is our 12th-likeliest automatic bid, and 12’s the lucky number these days (the most likely number of automatic bids when this is all said and done).
Moving Out: Utah State, Arizona State, Colorado, Youngstown State*, UC Riverside*, Norfolk State*
Utah State’s a little like Auburn in that they have no good bubble precedent and they probably have an agriculture department because I’m pretty sure each is a Land Grant. Beyond that, not a lot in common. Is their NET too good? Is their KenPom too good? Are they too good? We’ll give them a chance to show us when Boise State comes to town tomorrow night (assuming it’s a night game, check your local listings).
Arizona State’s a little like Notre Dame last year except their giant win came against a good team playing well and not a good team playing poorly. Right now, no ASU for us. We’ll wait patiently, though. It’s nothing a 40-point loss to USC can’t fix.
Colorado, as we said, has been swept away by the whims of fate. Tough life, Colorado.
Youngstown State slid down past Morehead in the auto-bid probability list because they got through to the Horizon League semifinals. No Penguins yet, but two more chances. UC Riverside lost to UC Irvine, which is quite sad for many involved.
First Four Out: Colorado, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, UCF
No big changes here from Wednesday. All these teams are very close.
Next Four Out: San Jose State, Louisiana, UNLV, Saint Louis
Close here too, but not “very” close. Could get in if the committee gets wild (which it will, but we don’t know in what way), could get in by just winning a few more than they’re expected to win.
Chasing Auto-Bids: UC Irvine, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Youngstown State, Furman, Yale, Vermont, Iona, Oral Roberts, Colgate
These nine are all in line for automatic bids in their respective leagues. We’ve listed them from likeliest to least likely.
Conference Complications (in): Liberty, College of Charleston, Sam Houston State, Drake, Kent State
We’d have each of these five in our bracket right now were they not expected to win their conference tournament. Each has a corresponding auto-bid in the projected field, but in three of the five leagues (CAA, WAC, MVC), there’s a shot at two NIT bids. Not a good shot, necessarily, but a shot.
Conference Complications (first four out): Dayton, Marshall
Were Dayton and Marshall not expected to win their conference tournaments, they’d be up with Colorado and UCF and the teams between. Meaning: These two are close.
Losers (in): Oklahoma, Ohio State
If the NIT Selection Committee forgets about the Invisible .500 Rule™, these teams are likely in the field.
Losers (next four out): Nebraska
If the NIT Selection Committee forgets about the Invisible .500 Rule™, Nebraska still has some work to do in the eyes of our model.
**
NIT Bubble Watch coming soon, followed by our Friday NITe preview, but for fans of NIT bubble teams watching UNC Asheville right now: You want UNC Asheville to win. And you want Bradley to win this next one. You want Bradley badly.
