That’s right, NIT fiends. We’ve done a midweek bracketology update. No longer do you have to wait until Friday to see the impacts of Monday and Tuesday’s games. The link can be found right here.
Does this mean we’ll be doing daily bracketology from here? Not necessarily. It’s possible, but we’ll see what the NITuation demands.
The breakdown:
Moving In: Utah State, Oklahoma State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Toledo*
The top movement happened on Monday, Utah State losing its Q1 win and Oklahoma State dropping its final projected record too close to .500. The bottom movement happened last night, Florida’s projection getting back on the right side of .500 and Virginia Tech winning big enough to make a difference. In the world of automatic bids, Toledo slots in as Grambling takes over SWAC favoritehood (Toledo’s likelier to lose its conference tournament than Grambling is to lose its own).
Moving Out: Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Alcorn State*
Wisconsin might end up with seven Q1 wins. That’s bad. Really bad. For me personally, I mean, a man sitting here hoping on Wisconsin to make the NIT. Mississippi State gets a reprieve after what feels like an eternity in the Bid Thief Seat. Cincinnati gets bumped out by Florida. Seton Hall falls with the home loss to a Villanova team that’s better than its numbers but not that much better. They’ve had Justin Moore back for a while, you know?
Other Auto-Bid Chasers: Oral Roberts, Iona, Yale, Furman, Colgate, Vermont, Grambling State, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Morehead State
These are the nine conference champions or conference favorites whom we aren’t projecting as automatic bids.
Conference Complications: Liberty, College of Charleston, Sam Houston State, Drake, Kent State, Dayton
All six of these teams would be in our projected bracket if they weren’t favored to win their conference tournament.
First Four Out: Cincinnati, UCF, Seton Hall, Wake Forest
Wake Forest drops a little further with the Boston College loss, but at least it was close. Far from over for the Deacs.
Next Four Out: Tulane, UNLV, Louisiana, San Jose State
How much is a win worth? San Jose State slid three spots closer by beating up Colorado State last night.
Losers: Oklahoma (in), Ohio State (FFO), Nebraska (NFO)
Oklahoma would be in the field were the .500 thing not believed to be a rule. Ohio State would be in the First Four Out. Nebraska would be in the Next Four Out.
**
NIT Bubble Watch and a preview of toNITe will be published shortly after this goes up. See you there.
What does Boston College need to do to get into the NIT? They are a different team with Post back after missing the entire non-conference schedule.
They need to get that narrative front and center in front of the NIT Selection Committee.
BC’s definitely been playing a lot better. They’re a ton of fun to follow, and we’d love it if they could pull this off. Their other big problem, though, beyond the nonconference performance, is how bad the ACC is. They only have one win over an NCAA Tournament team. Even St. John’s, who isn’t particularly close to the NIT bubble, at least has two of those.
Last year, the committee weighted NET and KenPom very heavily. Generally, you’d want to be in the top 80 for those to have a good NIT shot. Even with the Post piece of it, we have a hard time seeing BC getting in if they’re outside the top 100. Which means you might be better off hoping to win the ACC Tournament straight-up. Would think they definitely need to make the semis to have any sort of chance. (But hey, the NIT committee surprises more than the NCAA committee does, so maybe I’m wrong.)