You want context? We’ll give you so much frickin’ context.
In the Bid Thief Seat: NC State
I’ve been told to tell you that our model is deferring to consensus on Providence, which is a classy way to say that our model has Providence in the NIT but we’re ignoring it because we have a bad track record on the Upper Bubble and it appears everyone of repute disagrees with us. I’ve also been told to tell you that we’re waiting to see where consensus lands on NC State but that for today, at least, we’re showing them in the Bid Thief Seat, the one we think will get pushed down from the NCA* *********t given the likelihood at least one more stealer steals.
Moving In: NC State, Nevada, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall
In addition to the Wolfpack, the Wolf Pack move in on the heels of losing to Tim Miles, gracious saint that he is. Nevada’s had a great season, and some are sad to see it end like this. Us? We think it’s only getting better.
On the Lower Bubble, Virginia Tech and Seton Hall each slipped in thanks to two bids opening up. Why did they open up? Let us tell you.
Moving Out: Providence, Arizona State, Texas Tech, UC Irvine*
Texas Tech announced yesterday that they aren’t going to pursue additional basketball this season, meaning they don’t want to play in the NIT. We expect the NIT committee to respect their wishes. Meanwhile, enough conference champions won their conference tournament games that our projected number of automatic bids dropped from twelve to eleven for the first time in a long time. We’ve taken UC Irvine out to reflect this, but the Anteaters are still in play.
On the high side, Providence failed to lose badly enough to make people reconsider their NIT-worthy résumé while Arizona State beat Andy Enfield. We appreciate the gesture, ASU, but this doesn’t help us at all.
First Four Out: UCF, San Jose State, Nebraska, Saint Louis
All four of these, but especially the first two, are now close enough that if everything played out exactly as expected from here, we wouldn’t be surprised to see their name called on Sunday. We have Seton Hall and Washington State and Virginia Tech and Colorado safer, but they’re all close to 50/50. Great wins by SJSU and SLU yesterday. SJSU because they beat someone good (Nevada), Saint Louis because they punked someone (George Mason).
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Marshall, UNLV, Utah
Utah slides back into hanging–around territory as the bubble opens up, but it’s still not likely. Wake didn’t get the help they needed. UNLV came close to doing exactly what San Jose State did, but Boise beat them, and now they’re watching from a distance. None of these—and this goes for St. John’s, Tulane, BYU, Loyola Marymount, and even Fordham, too—would be shocking admissions, but from what we can tell right now, they’d be surprising.
Still Chasing Automatic Bids: Iona, Vermont, Yale, UC Irvine
There are a maximum of 16 NIT automatic bids at the moment: The seven who’ve already clinched, the four others in our bracket, FAU (who could conceivably nab one with a terrible loss today), and these guys. We’ve got the probabilities ranging from 20% (Iona) to 67% (UC Irvine).
2-Bid [Insert Conference Here]?: Sam Houston State, Kent State, Kind of Dayton
Dayton would be our first team out were they not projected to win the A-10 Tournament at the moment. Very close, could cause bad things for the San Jose States of the world. With SHSU and the Flashes, the hope from NIT Bubbler fans is that we don’t see a 2-bid WAC or MAC. Put otherwise: Nebraska fans really want either Sam Houston State or Utah Valley to win the WAC Tournament, and they really want Kent State or Toledo to win the MAC Tournament. At the moment, even losses by SHSU and Kent State today don’t look like they’d be enough to take either of those teams out.
Sub-.500: Oklahoma, Ohio State
As we always say, anxious and/or thorough betches that we are, if the Invisible .500 Rule for some reason changes, Oklahoma and Ohio State would be in good position to make the NIT. We do not expect it to change, though, so we expect these teams to be out.
