The times, as plenty of people have said by this point in history, are a-changing.
Here’s what’s happening around our latest NIT Bracketology:
Moving In: Wisconsin, Washington State, Villanova, Vanderbilt, Southern Miss*, Youngstown State*, UC-Riverside*, Norfolk State*
Lot happening here, so let’s break it down in groups:
Wisconsin slides in from the top, bumped out by the Mountain West action we’ll explain in a moment.
Washington State and Villanova each pop in from the bottom, newly expected to finish at least at .500.
Vanderbilt climbs in from the bottom as well, still on the bubble but looking aimed just on the right side of it.
Southern Miss won the Sun Belt, so they’re now in line for that automatic bid. UC-Riverside is the new Big West favorite, putting them in line for that automatic bid.
Youngstown State and Norfolk State move in as a few other automatic bid favorites lose their grip on conference favoritehood (or lose their conference title altogether).
Moving Out: Utah State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Marshall*, Toledo*, UC-Irvine*, Samford*
Utah State jumped over the line despite taking the weekend off, pushed upwards by Nevada sliding to 30th in NET, greatly helping Utah State’s Q1 woes.
Florida is now projected to finish below .500, and things don’t look to be getting better in Gainesville anytime soon.
Virginia Tech just keeps playing worse, losing a game they were expected to lose in Durham but doing it by much more than was planned. They’re still right in the mix, but they need to bully some teams. Similar story for Wake Forest, who got pushed out by the Villanova–Washington State rise.
Marshall blew it in the Sun Belt, and now they’re out of at-large territory as well, making it pretty unlikely they play their way back in without winning the Sun Belt Tournament, which would put them in an even worse pickle. CBI favorites right now, potentially. UC-Irvine gets bumped by UC-Riverside, though there’s time left in the Big West.
Toledo did their job, but Kent State’s favored again to catch them, so they’ve got work to do. Samford lost the SoCon to Furman, and that’s the end of that, with the regular season over in that league and Samford lacking a path to an at-large bid.
Conference Complications: Liberty, College of Charleston, Sam Houston State, Drake
In addition to three teams who are either in line for an automatic bid or expected to be in line for an automatic bid—Oral Roberts, Iona, and Kent State, specifically—these four would all be in our projected field right now if they weren’t favored to win their conference tournaments. Does that mean each will make the NIT if they lose in their conference tournament? Of course not. That would be much too simple for the NIT landscape. But they’d have a good chance, especially if the loss was a good one.
Conference Complications Lite: Marshall, Dayton
Yale could be in this bunch too, but they should be in line for an automatic bid. This is the same premise as the last group—conference tournament favorites—except instead of projecting to land between our cut lines, these guys are merely close. Were they not expected to win their conference tournaments, they’d be in the two bunches below.
First Four Out: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, UCF, Nebraska
Nebraska is, like Villanova and Washington State, newly expected to at least finish .500. Work to do, though. Need to split these next two; need to boost the NET and the KenPom at the same time.
Wake and Virginia Tech are close, as is UCF. Those three have selection scores almost indistinguishable from Cincinnati’s, and they aren’t far from Utah and Seton Hall. Take your pick.
Next Four Out: Toledo, Tulane, UNLV, Louisiana
Toledo probably can’t get an at-large bid, because if they win out in the regular season they’ll be in line for the automatic bid, but this is where they are. Tulane and UNLV have some time left. ULL needs some Sun Belt Tournament magic, by which we mean blowouts and then a very narrow loss and then virtually no NIT automatic bids elsewhere around the country. Nice and simple for ULL.
Losers (in the field): Oklahoma, Florida
If the NIT committee were to surprise and do away with the unstated rule that at-large bids can’t go to teams below .500, Oklahoma and Florida would be in our field.
Losers (in the mix): Ohio State
If the NIT committee were to surprise and do away with the unstated rule that at-large bids can’t go to teams below .500, Ohio State would be close to our field, up there between Wake Forest and Louisiana.
Programming Notes
We’re posting our first NIT Bubble Watch right after this, so go to the homepage and look for that. We’ll also be posting the guide to toNITe’s action in a few minutes. See you there.
