Good day, and an especially good day to all the Presidents reading this. President Carter, our prayers go out to you and your family. President McKinley, I swear I didn’t mean to take your jacket from the Smithsonian. Please. I sent it back. Leave me alone now. Be gone from here!
It was a busy weekend, and our latest NIT Bracketology takes its results into account. UNC? More comfortably projected into our midst. Kentucky? It was only a fling.
The bracketology link is right there (or here, if you’d like to click it again). This is what’s happening around it:
Moving In: Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Drake, UC-Irvine*, Norfolk State*
We got our Bulldogs back, as their near-success in Oxford along with the movement around them slid those fellas into the Bid Thief slot. Cincinnati took down UCF in Orlando in the kind of matchup that makes the future Big 12 a little bit of a bummer but does the trick for Cincy’s purposes here. Drake pops in because they’re no longer the Arch Madness favorite.
Moving Out: USC, Clemson, Santa Clara, Kennesaw State*, Howard*
USC’s gone again, taking care of business in the wrongest way and getting some “help” from Pac-12 teams sliding across various quadrant thresholds in NET. Santa Clara scored 103 points, but we wanted to make a point about defense, so we’re benching them for a minute (just kidding, they got bumped by Drake, as we’ll see in a moment). Kennesaw State’s moment in the (A-)sun is done, as the Owls lost the conference lead, falling to Queens in a game that was anything but a hoot. Lastly: MEAC favorite flip. Norfolk State’s got the edge again over Howard.
First Four Out: Santa Clara, Vanderbilt, Clemson, Tulane
As we said, Santa Clara’s our first team out right now, needing just one fewer automatic bid than expected if everyone else in the entire country does exactly the right thing over the next three weeks. Our beloved Tulane remains close even after their fifth straight win—it’s more likely than not they’ll grab an ugly loss before the AAC Tournament hits. Clemson? It’s a surprise to see them fall out, but the committee cared a lot about NET and KenPom last year, which is to say they cared about how good teams are, and Clemson is not in any sense a good team. Vanderbilt? They’re very close, and they’re trending upwards, but we just need a little bit more.
Next Four Out: UNLV, Saint Louis, St. John’s, Louisiana
No chance at a home-team Final Four yet, with UNLV still within shouting distance but not enunciating all that well. SLU, St. John’s, and the Ragin’ Cajuns also hang around. Behind them (sneak peak for the real ones still reading) we’ve got Toledo, Syracuse, James Madison, and Loyola Marymount. Then we get to BYU and Washington. It’s a bad time to be BYU and Washington.
Conference Complications: College of Charleston, Sam Houston State, Dayton, Marshall
The Cougars and the Bearkats would be in our field were they not conference tournament favorites (it’s a little more complicated than that, but the bottom line is that they’re pointed the right direction and just need a sneaky loss at the right time that isn’t horrific). Dayton and Marshall would be in our mix were they not also conference tournament favorites. Meaning, they’re somewhere between Santa Clara and Louisiana in projected Selection Score.
Losers: Oklahoma, Washington State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Villanova, Butler
Ohio State would have to win out and then get to the Big Ten quarterfinals to finish .500 at this point (or finish 3–1 and then get to the Big Ten championship), but if they do that, they’re in. If Oklahoma gets to .500, they’re also in, unless they do what Texas Tech looks like it might do and blow right past us. Washington State and Nebraska’s median projected Selection Scores aren’t good enough to make our cut right now, but if they get to .500, they’ll be knocking on the door if not busting in the room. Villanova’s probably in that same boat but we’re less confident. The same could be said for Butler, except that Butler’s close to impossible, kind of like Ohio State. Also, Butler just lost to Georgetown at Hinkle, so I don’t think we need to worry about them. But hey! Stranger things are out there. You’re reading an NIT blog, after all.
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Curious why UCF is seeded higher than Cincinnati when Cincinnati beat UCF twice. UCF is better in Q1/Q2 but worse in Q3 (four Q4 losses for UCF.) KenPom has them 57 and 63. NET is a crazy aberration and hates Cincinnati for some reason. There’s a 17 rank difference in NET and KenPom and that has to be at the top of the list for variances.
The committee leaned really heavily on NET and/or KenPom last year, and we don’t have great data before last year since 2019, because the 2020 tournament didn’t happen and 2021 was so weird. That’s an interesting thought about NET/KenPom differences. Looks like as of yesterday morning Cincy’s was the second-highest among top-90 teams. FAU was the only one higher, with NET loving FAU in that instance. Oral Roberts had the same gap as Cincy, but it was in the opposite direction too. My guess based off of that would be that NET’s attempts to cap the impact of margin are making a difference, and that they’re making overall W/L record matter more.
I will say: With basketball, I’m not familiar with many times the committee has used head-to-head as a comparison. Not saying they shouldn’t, but we don’t see it often.